NFL Week 9 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis
Early bets on NFL Week 9 spreads either look brilliant right now or have already backfired, and there’s plenty of both this week. Several lines posted before Week 8 kicked off look nothing like they do now, thanks to injuries, blowouts and a couple of well-timed bye weeks. One game swung a whopping 13 points since the look-ahead numbers came out, while others barely moved.
Four spreads took the biggest jumps heading into Week 9. Below is what pushed each one and which side I’m backing before kickoff.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Jaguars -7.5 to Jaguars -9.5)
After opening as a field-goal favorite, Baltimore now finds itself getting a 10-point head start on top of home-field advantage, and it may not even be enough. Lamar Jackson is out with a thumb injury, and backup Tyler Huntley is done for the season with turf toe, leaving quarterback duties to Joe Fagnano. Not to mention, the Ravens are coming off a 36-10 beating in Buffalo.
On the other sideline, Jacksonville is 5-2 and still owns the best rush defense in the league, giving up 77 yards per game. Ten points is a big number on the road, but against a Ravens team that will depend on Derrick Henry to do it all against the toughest run defense in football, I’m laying it with the Jaguars.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (Giants -1.5 to Giants -2.5)
A bye week did nothing to hurt the Giants, who picked up a point on this spread without taking a snap. Sitting at 4-2-1, they come in rested and healthy.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, scored 10 points in the first quarter at Washington and never scored again in a 27-10 Week 8 loss. Makes perfect sense why the spread took a dip. The Eagles have now dropped six straight, and the offense hasn’t shown any sign of turning the corner. Giants -2.5 is the play here, and it isn’t close.
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (Cowboys -3.5 to Cowboys -6)
Most teams that cough up a 14-point fourth-quarter lead definitely lose some respect, especially on NFL lines, but the Cowboys somehow gained some. Dallas fell 33-30 in overtime to Arizona, and this spread still jumped 2.5 points in their favor.
Look, losing streaks don’t get much uglier than the one in Indianapolis, where the Colts have dropped four straight to fall to 2-6. A 3-5 Dallas team that can’t hold a two-touchdown lead isn’t much more dependable, though. Neither side has earned my trust, and this is one game I’m leaving alone.
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers (Texans -3 to Texans -4.5)
It’s hard to get much worse than 0-7, and the Chargers haven’t given anyone a reason to think things are turning around. They managed nine points against the Rams last week, and while Houston sat at home on a bye, this line moved a point and a half in their favor.
The Texans are just 2-5 themselves, but they showed some fight last time out, clawing back from an eight-point hole to force overtime against the Giants before losing 27-21 last week. Houston had two weeks to prepare for an offense that can’t score, and laying 4.5 with the Texans is a comfortable choice.
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