NFL Week 10 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis
Spreads rarely stay put once the injury reports start rolling in, and Week 10 is no exception. Quarterback news, ugly Sunday performances and a couple of head-scratching outcomes have pushed several numbers around since the lines opened up, while the rest of the board barely budged.
Four spreads have moved the most since the lines opened Sunday night, and I’ve got the inside scoop on why it happened, and which game to take and fade.
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Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (Panthers -1.5 to Saints -2.5)
Even on a three-game losing streak, the Panthers opened as road favorites, and sportsbooks corrected it quickly, flipping this line four points toward New Orleans.
The Saints are coming off an overtime win over Cleveland and get this game on their home turf, while the Panthers surrender 27.4 points per game. New Orleans’ quarterback Tyler Shough shouldn’t feel much pressure in the pocket, but I’m still grabbing the +2.5 with Carolina.
Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders (Seahawks -3 to Seahawks -6.5)
Quarterback injuries dragged this spread all over the place. Drew Lock hurt his oblique in Sunday’s win over Arizona with Sam Darnold already sidelined, the line opened at Seattle -3. Once head coach Mike Macdonald said Lock is good to go, the number climbed right back to -6.5.
The Seahawks are 2-0 when Lock plays this season, and Las Vegas just got run off the field 38-17 by San Francisco, and traded away Kirk Cousins. Lay the 6.5 with Seattle and don’t overthink it.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (Rams -7.5 to Rams -9.5)
There isn’t much left in Arizona’s quarterback room. The Cardinals traded away their starter, and now Gardner Minshew is dealing with an elbow injury that has rookie Carson Beck in line to start. Sportsbooks raised this line two points, and frankly, it doesn’t seem like enough.
The Cardinals may be 3-2 ATS after a loss, but tossing a rookie quarterback into a start against a defense that’s allowing just 302 yards per game isn’t a good sign for an offense hanging on by a thread. I’ll take the Rams even at 9.5.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -3.5 to Ravens -4.5)
Similar to the Cardinals, the Ravens ran into some heavy quarterback issues, but landing Jacoby Brissett in a trade with Arizona tips things a little more in their favor after rookie Joe Fagnano threw for just 60 yards in a 33-10 blowout loss to the Jaguars. Things haven’t been pretty in Baltimore, but they still look a lot better than the Chargers, and the quarterback change moved this spread a full point.
On the other side, Justin Herbert is nursing a finger injury on his non-throwing hand, and the Chargers are still searching for their first win at 0-8. With the Ravens dropping four straight of their own, I’m staying away from this game.
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