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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


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Beholder, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2018

When the connections of Quip correctly decided that the Kentucky Derby wasn't the right fit for their horse, the door was opened for Combatant to make the starting gate. It's not a move that will excite anyone other than the connections of the horse. The well-bred colt hasn't made a real mark on the Derby trail, only sticking around for enough of a piece to pick up a few points here or there. To imagine him being a real factor in this incredibly deep and tough Kentucky Derby would require a far more active imagination that I have. The horse earned his spot in the starting gate fair and square, but he's not going to get the win. Not even close.

Belmont Stakes entrant Unlimited Budget


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2018

Firenze Fire is a reminder of how dramatically things can change in horse racing in a fairly short time. Heading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year the horse had just won Grade 1 race, beating Kentucky Derby hopefuls Good Magic and Enticed, and he seemed like a decent value play at 11/1. Since then, though, he has gone from solid and interesting Triple Crown contender to the horse most likely to go off at triple-digit odds in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

The bad news is that this colt has lost his last three races - including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he was the favorite. But it could be worse. He has been beaten by just four horses in those three races - three that are in the Derby, including the favorite, and one who would have been among the top favorites if he hadn't been hurt. So, when he loses it is to top horses, and he never gets blown out. But being close isn't going to be good enough in the Derby - not in a field this strong.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

Audible won the Florida Derby in his fifth career race to extend a winning streak and to come into the Derby with a lot of momentum. Do you know who else that describes? Always Dreaming, Audible's older stablemate, who won the Kentucky Derby to stretch his win streak to four. Audible has already won four in a row, so he's already a step ahead.

Oxbow, ridden by Gary Stevens


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

There are many handicappers who are always drawn to the 'other' horse. They could very well be looking at Solomini. When a stable has one highly-touted horse in the field, and then the trainer slips another horse into the race, it seems a little amazing how often it is that other runner that pays off - and often at a big price. Bob Baffert runs multiple horses in lots of races, so he is a frequent target of such bettors. And with the very heavily, and legitimately by these eyes, hyped Justify towering over this field, Solomini is definitely the 'other' Baffert horse.

Paynter, Breeders' Cup entrant


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is perhaps the most powerful owner of thoroughbreds in the world. Between his Godolphin and Darley operations he has won most races in the world worth winning. He is the driving force behind the Dubai World Cup, for example, and has won his own race a ridiculous nine times. Despite an international presence, the one area where he has not had a lot of success is in Triple Crown races. He won the 2006 Preakness with Bernardini, and that is the sum total of it. He had high hopes last year with UAE Derby winner Thunder Snow, who went on to win the Dubai World Cup this spring, but that colt bizarrely stepped out of the gate last year and refused to run.

Super Saver


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

There are so many reasons to question Magnum Moon. He is trying to win the Kentucky Derby despite not having run a race as a two-year-old. In a trend so pronounced that it has a fancy name - the Curse of Apollo - no horse has been able to do that since Apollo did it way, way back in 1882. Many have tried, including some that have gone on to become legends, like Curlin, but none have pulled it off. He's also started only four times.

California Chrome and Jockey Victor Espinoza


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

In most circumstances this is the kind of horse you would pay very little attention to heading into the Derby. His breeding doesn't jump off the page. His career has been undistinguished - marked by a history of aiming high and falling short. His connections aren't terrible but aren't at all inspiring, either. He seems outclassed. To get any attention at all a horse like this would have to do something particularly noteworthy. And on April 19 this horse did just that. That morning he had a truly ridiculous work at Churchill Downs - ridiculous in a good way.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

In a year when so many of the storylines are about a shortage of experience and what impact that will have on the race, it is somewhat refreshing to see a grinder like Flameaway come along. That's three times as many starts as Justify, and only My Boy Jack has run more. This colt has done a little bit of everything, too, which certainly has given him exposure to a whole lot of different things. He hasn't had the shiny success that some top runners had, but he's well bred and has strong connections. Can he overcome his shortcomings and deliver some big value at a fat price? Or will he fall short?

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

Remember the story of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde? It will come in handy when you handicap Promises Fulfilled heading into the Kentucky Derby. Depending on the race, he can look like a world-class speed horse that could cause headaches for the best horses in this field, or he could look like a totally immature mess of a horse that is in so far over his head that it is ridiculous. The trick for us here it to figure out if the good version of the colt or the bad is likely to show up. It's not an easy and obvious question, but the answer might not be that difficult to come by in the end.

Jockey Brian Hernandez jr


by Trevor Whenham - 4/24/2018

Since 2013, the UAE Derby, run on the Dubai World Cup undercard in late March, has been a Kentucky Derby points race. The winner gets enough points to make the Derby field, and the runner-up does as well. Despite that ticket to the big time, and the incredible wealth owners have in Dubai, we have yet to see a horse from the race really threaten in Louisville. Last year's winner Thunder Snow was arguably the best horse that has come over, but he quit running right out of the gate. It has been a good practice for bettors to be skeptical about horses coming out of this race.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2018

This is shaping up to be a great Kentucky Derby. The field is very deep, and the top end is exceptional. The 10th-place horse this year could be better than Always Dreaming was to win the Derby last year. That means that this is not going to be an easy Derby to bet on. Far from it. And that's what makes it so exciting. A winning bet here will offer real bragging rights - it will be an impressive handicapping feat. So, you obviously need to be betting on this race. But where? Need some advice on where to bet on the Kentucky Derby? You have come to be the right place. Here are your options:

Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming


by Trevor Whenham - 4/17/2018

I want to write about this horse not because I think he is a factor in the Kentucky Derby - he absolutely isn't. But My Boy Jack did what I have been waiting for a horse to do - use the Lexington Stakes as a Derby springboard. He had had a decent-but-unspectacular spring and had 32 Derby points - which would have him right on the Derby bubble. Instead of hoping that that was going to be enough, or heading to a tough race in the Arkansas Derby, his connections sent him to a soft spot in the Lexington at Keeneland.

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2018

The last of the major Kentucky Derby prep races for 2018 takes place at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. In the last 15 years this has become a very important stop on the road to the Triple Crown. And I literally do mean the Triple Crown - American Pharoah won this race in 2015 as his last stop before his historic three wins to step into history forever.

Mario Gutierrez rides I'll Have Another


by Doc's Sports - 4/10/2018

The Kentucky Derby is as much about the storylines as it is about the two minutes of excitement that follows when the 20 best three-year-olds burst out of the starting gates at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Ahead of the most storied race in the world, here are three key things you need to know ahead of the run for the roses.

Lookin At Lucky


by Robert Ferringo - 5/5/2017

The 143th running of the Kentucky Derby commences at 6:24 p.m. on Saturday, May 6 at Churchill Downs. The Run For The Roses marks the open of the Triple Crown racing season and is one of the most highly-anticipated sporting events of the spring. The post draw took place on Wednesday afternoon without the usual fanfare. Kentucky Derby organizers have, in the past, tried to "liven up" the post draw with gimmicks such as allowing owners to pick their own post or having the draw in primetime. But this year's draw was a quiet affair that took all of five minutes this morning.

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 5/5/2017

After countless hours thinking about the Kentucky Derby, and tens of thousands of words written about it, the best two minutes in sports is now just a short time away. And it promises to be a very tough race. There are a few horses that have no chance - Fast and Accurate is a bad joke, and I have no love for Untrapped or Patch (though my dislike of Patch does not mean I am discriminating against him because he only has one eye - I'm not a monster).

Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/4/2017

The Kentucky Derby is the king of all races for the history, the glamour, and the thrilling challenge of handicapping it every year. From a pure race consistency and quality level, though, Friday's Kentucky Oaks often outshines Saturday's big event. The Oaks is the highlight of Friday's card and the second-biggest race of the weekend at Churchill Downs. It is the equivalent of the Derby in that only three year olds can run, but it is exclusively for fillies - female horses - while the Derby is open to fillies but run almost exclusively by males.

Uncle Mo


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

The pace makes the race. Like most good clichés it's a cliché because it's true. A horse can be by far the most talented in the race, but if he doesn't dictate the pace, and that pace sets up in a way that works against him, then he can be beaten. On the flipside, If a relatively average horse gets a perfect trip he can win a race when he is nowhere close to the best in the field. That's how Giacomo won. And Super Saver. And I'll Have Another. Mine That Bird, Sea Hero, Lil E. Tee - the list isn't a short one. So, for handicappers, understanding potential Kentucky Derby pace scenarios and how they would impact different horses is key to picking a winner. And that's what we're here for today:

Zenyatta and Mike Smith.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

The littlest men often play the biggest role in the Kentucky Derby. Jockeys have to be just insane to do what they do on any random Wednesday. On a Derby day, though, with too many young horses fired up by a massive, drunken, screaming crowd, they are truly taking their lives in their own hands. If they win they will become immortal in the annals of the sport. But that just happens for one guy each year, and a large number of the other 19 will be blamed for their horse losing. It's a very tough way to make a living.

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