Audible Odds to Win the 2018 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

Audible won the Florida Derby in his fifth career race to extend a winning streak and to come into the Derby with a lot of momentum. Do you know who else that describes? Always Dreaming, Audible's older stablemate, who won the Kentucky Derby to stretch his win streak to four. Audible has already won four in a row, so he's already a step ahead. Can he keep his streak going? You could certainly do worse lately than blindly betting the Florida Derby winner to take the Derby - along with Always Dreaming, Nyquist and Orb have done it in the last five years alone. Can Audible add to the impressive recent record of this race?

Last race: Audible got a great race setup in the Florida Derby and, to his credit, he was able to take advantage of it. He settled well off a pace that was suicidal through four furlongs and a little crazy through six. And then once things blew up he able to pick up the pieces, take the lead around the turn, and win handily. He was three lengths up on second-place Hofburg and nearly 11 lengths clear of third place. It was a strong, tactical showing. There looked to be a concern with about a furlong left when he started to drift noticeably, but the whip got him back into focus and heading straight again. There wasn't much not to like about the race - especially because the early pace is something we could see again in Kentucky.

Prior experience: Audible made his debut in late September at Belmont in a race that proved two things - he wasn't quite ready for prime time, and six and a half furlongs was too short for him to run. He made a decent kick late but ran out of ground and wound up third. He came back six weeks later at Aqueduct at a mile, and it went much better. This time, when he moved he had enough room and he won by nearly two lengths. It wasn't a dominant performance, but it was a big step forward. Next up, just three weeks later, he stepped up to allowance company, and he announced his presence on the national stage. It was a fast early pace that he pressed, and then he took the lead entering the turn and just kept running. He wound up winning by most of 10 lengths. That made a stakes race the obvious next step, and in the Holy Bull he made his mark, winning by almost six lengths. It was against an underwhelming field, though - Free Drop Billy was second, and he seems to be a serious long shot here in the Derby.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher is as good as any trainer on the planet - 364 days a year. He wins almost at will, with four wins in the six major Derby prep races this year a statement of just how powerful his stable is. But in the Derby he has had issues. He won last year with Always Dreaming, but that was just his second win in 48 career starts. That is a disastrous win percentage for a trainer of that caliber. By contrast, Bob Baffert has four wins in 27 starts, and he has had multiple horses many years as well. So, Pletcher is a serious asset for any horse, but not as much on the first Saturday on May as in any other day of the year for some reason.

Jockey: John Velazquez was aboard for the Florida Derby, but he was just filling in for Javier Castellano, who was in Dubai for the World Cup, finishing second aboard West Coast. Velazquez was fine giving up the ride because he had ridden Vino Rosso throughout and was happy to stay there. So, Castellano is back in the saddle here, and that's a good thing. He's a four-time jockey of the year, he has won seven Breeders' Cup races, and has won the Preakness twice, including last year with Cloud Computing. He hasn't won a Derby yet, but it's just a matter of time.

Breeding: Sire Into Mischief has mostly been marked by sons that have been serious Derby disappointments. Goldencents was the third choice in 2013 Derby and wound up 17th. Vyjack was a long shot that same year who ran even worse than Goldencents. Vicar's in Trouble was a wiseguy horse in 2014 who wound up dead last. And Practical Joke entered last year as one of the top Derby contenders and wound up a non-threatening fifth. Audible has a history to overcome. Of note, his best horses have done better at a mile (or so) than at a classic distance. Damsire Gilded Time was the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and two-year-old champion in 1992, but he was injured at three. He failed to establish himself as a sire and ended up standing at stud about 20 miles from where I sit now - which is as close to horse racing Siberia as you can get. Add it all up and Audible is overachieving versus his breeding, and there are many horses in this field I like more from a pedigree perspective.

Odds: Audible is the fourth choice in futures betting at BetOnline at +675, behind solid favorite Justify at +225 and also Mendelssohn and Bolt d'Oro.

Can Audible Win the 2018 Kentucky Derby?: Yes. He is coming out of the right race, has been consistently strong, has shown strength in different styles of running, and has clear heart and strong connections. But his pedigree makes me uneasy about the distance, and this is a tough field. I don't see a lot of value in this price, but he's not one I can toss out.

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