2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends and Expert Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 4/30/2026

The 152nd Kentucky Derby goes down this Saturday as the next chapter of the legendary Run of the Roses will be written. As of now, all 20 positions are filled for the biggest horse race of the year, as all eyes will be on Churchill Downs for the most exciting two minutes in sports. While countless factors go into winning the Kentucky Derby, historic betting trends can be a great way to stay ahead. We have no shortage of sample size for this legendary run, and several trends have emerged in recent years. Post position, pace, recent results, and who is with them in the stables are all crucial things to keep in mind. Before making picks of your own, remember these three trends at the Kentucky Derby.

Get expert sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Prep Race Success:

There are more than 30 prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but the main focus is on the ‘Super Six.' Over the last 50 years, more than half of Kentucky Derby winners not only participated in one of the Super Six prep races but also went on to win. The six race winners this year were Emerging Market, Commandment, Renegade, Further Ado, Albus, and So Happy. All six of those horses will be competing in the Kentucky Derby, and they are coming in with real momentum for the race. While all six races are equally important, the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and the Wood Memorial are responsible for nearly 40% of the last 50 winners, with the Florida Derby (Commandment won that race) leading the way, with nearly 20% of all Kentucky Derby winners having won that prep race. Renegade, Commandment, So Happy, and Further Ado are four of the five horses coming in with shorter than 10-1 odds to win the Derby. The only non-prep race winner to have similar odds is The Puma, who finished second to Commandment at the all-important Florida Derby. The other prep race winners listed are Emerging Market (12-1) and Albus (50-1). Albus won the Wood Memorial, beating out two other Kentucky Derby participants, meaning if this trend holds true, he is bursting with value at 50-1 odds.

Don’t Ignore the Trainers:
When it comes to the trainer vs. jockey debate, it may seem straightforward to assume that the man on the back of the horse is more important than the trainer on the sidelines. However, that couldn’t be further from the truth. A strong trainer can make the difference in a race of this magnitude, and there is no shortage of talent in that department at the Kentucky Derby. Finding out which trainers have found success at the Kentucky Derby or other similarly long and grueling races can go a long way toward picking the winner.

Brad Cox trains both Further Ado and Commandment, two of the favorites, and he will be looking to add to his long list of accolades. Riley Mott, the son of Bill Mott, is making his Derby debut, having trained two horses that qualified for this race. Bill Mott has already won the Kentucky Derby twice before, including last year, and will look to become the first trainer to win back-to-back Kentucky Derbies since Bob Baffert back in 1998. Speaking of Baffert, he is back from his suspension, looking for vengeance with a pair of long shots entered in the Derby. There are also a handful of trainers making their debut, which is often a bad omen for Kentucky Derby wins. Only two of the last 20 Derby-winning trainers won the race on their first start, with Eric Redd and Rich Strike most recently doing so as 80-1 long shots in 2022.

Favorites are Back, but Beware:
After a few faltering years, the favorites have returned to the top in the Kentucky Derby over the last decade or so. The outright favorite won the Kentucky Derby six years in a row from 2013 to 2018, and a top-three horse has won in 12 of the last 19 races. While betting on the favorite isn’t as exhilarating as long shots, due to the massive field of horses competing, you will often still get excellent odds. However, it is important to note that the outright favorite hasn’t won since 2019. That is nothing more than a statistical anomaly, as they have finished second numerous times, and the second or third most likely horse has prevailed.

Renegade is the current favorite to win this year, but he is still coming in with 5-1 odds to emerge. There is little to separate four or five horses at the top of the odds leaderboard, allowing a solid payout to still be offered on all 20 horses racing this Saturday. You can curse at the heavens for missing out on a potential 80-1 long shot like Rich Strike in 2022, but more often than not, picking a few favorites and blocking out the noise is the best way to come out on top at the Kentucky Derby.

Get free expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions

Start:	April 30, 2026 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Craig Trapp
Free $60 Account Sign Up