Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions

2016 Kentucky Derby Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/5/2016

I feel a sense of dread right now. A big one. For the last few weeks - more than I want to admit - I have been doing little other than thinking about and getting ready for the Kentucky Derby. Now, with the post positions drawn and everything set, I find myself with less of an idea of how things are likely to turn out than I have had for years. This is one muddy field.

Kentucky Derby Handicapping: Why Todd Pletcher has Struggled
by Trevor Whenham - 5/5/2016

Every year I sit down and write an article about why betting on Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby is a truly lousy idea. I talk about how he is a great trainer yet how he is spectacularly not great on the first Saturday in May. I pull out the stats of just how bad he is in the race, and update them with the latest numbers so that they get even worse.

Free Kentucky Derby Picks: Live Long Shots for 2016
by Trevor Whenham - 5/4/2016

I remember Kentucky Derbies as tough as this one to handicap, but I certainly don't remember any harder. Last year we were so spoiled - the clear class of the field was obvious, and all you had to do was figure out how to deal with the two or three truly elite horses. This year, though, there isn't an elite horse in these eyes, but there are 15 or 16 that stand a reasonable chance, if everything goes their way, of winding up wearing roses. That makes picking a winner mind-numbingly challenging.

2016 Kentucky Oaks Picks with Betting Odds and Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/4/2016

The Kentucky Oaks kind of sucks this year. Harsh, but true. Typically a great race, this year's edition was robbed of all excitement when Songbird fell ill and was scratched. She is the best three year old in training right now - of either gender - and it's not even close. She's one of those effortless freaks that makes the sport look far too easy.

Kentucky Derby Wagering Advice and Betting Help: the Pace Scenario a Major Factor
by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2016

There is nothing more important when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby than understanding the pace - where horses want to be during the race, how likely they are going to be able to be there, and what it means for the race. Unfortunately, because of the size of the race, the distance which is new to every horse, and the general craziness of the Derby, there are also few things tougher than handicapping the pace in the Derby. All you can do, really, is chart where you expect horses to be, try to figure out what it all means, and then hope for the best.

2016 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Advice: How Pedigree Factors into Successful Wagers
by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2016

Studying pedigrees is an art and science that takes a lifetime to understand. At the heart, though, handicappers study pedigrees for one reason - to try to understand if a horse is capable of doing something it hasn't done before. That's especially important in a race like the Kentucky Derby when every horse is being asked to run further than they ever have - and further than most horses are capable of doing effectively. By looking at the bloodlines of runners we can get a sense of which horses are well-suited, and which ones could be over their heads.

Expert Kentucky Derby Betting Advice: Handicapping the 2016 Jockeys
by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2016

The littlest guys in the Kentucky Derby are often the most interesting. The jockeys can make or break the race. A good ride can turn a contender into a winner, and a bad ride has doomed many great horses in this event. In a race as wide open as the 2016 edition of the Kentucky Derby is, it's more than likely that after the race we will be talking about a rider and the difference they made in the end. It is, as always, a compelling group of riders assembled this year. Here's a snapshot of 11 of the more interesting stories:

Kentucky Derby Betting Tips from Expert Horse Racing Handicapper 2016
by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

The Kentucky Derby is my favorite thing to bet on each year - and it's not even close. That's not a rational decision by any means - there are few events as tough to handicap effectively as this one. Horses are being asked to run further than they ever have before, and they have to do it in a ridiculously full field in front of 160,000 screaming people drunk on mint juleps. These horses come from all over the country, and few have seen each other before this race.

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2016? Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

I have been a huge sports fan for most of the last four decades. Nothing in that time has been as special or memorable as last year's Triple Crown win by American Pharoah. I had waited for a truly special horse to do the almost impossible when I was old enough to appreciate it - I was alive for Seattle Slew and Affirmed, but still in diapers - and had had my heart broken so many times by close calls.

2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends
by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

Every class of three year olds is completely unique. That is just one of the many things that makes handicapping the Kentucky Derby so difficult. Over the years, though, trends have emerged that have helped us narrow the field down to find more likely winners. These trends aren't ironclad guarantees, and there are exceptions to each, but lately they have proven more likely to point out a winner or not.

Kentucky Derby Handicapping and Betting Advice: the Experience Factor
by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

This is an odd Kentucky Derby field in so many ways. There are a lot of intriguing horses, but none - with the possible exception of Nyquist if you are more optimistic than me - that seem to be on the road to superstardom. There is certainly no American Pharoah here, and the number of horses that seem to be potentially exceptional is fewer than in most years. On the other hand, though, the level of talent doesn't drop off nearly as steeply this year as most years. The top three horses aren't as strong as most years, but the 16th horse in the field this year is much more competitive than that level of horse is most years.

Trojan Nation Odds to Win the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2016

Sir Barton. That is the horse that Trojan Nation and his connections need to be motivated by. The great Triple Crown winner of 1919 had raced six times before the Kentucky Derby without a win. He wasn't even entered to win the Derby. He was supposed to set a fast pace for a closing stablemate. He got the lead early and never looked back, running away with the win - and then two more to follow. It is a story out of fairy tales.

Horses That Can Win the Kentucky Derby in 2016
by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2016

This is a very odd Kentucky Derby. Most years when I sit down to write this particular article it isn't too tough to pick the five or six elite contenders from the rest of the field. This year, though, it is tough to spot the truly elite horses and tougher still to find five or six that you could definitively say have little chance. Despite the presence of a likely strong favorite in Nyquist, this is as wide-open a field as I remember in a while.

2016 Kentucky Derby Trainers: Handicapping and Betting Advice
by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2016

The horses do the work. The jockeys make the decisions in the race that let the horses do that work. The trainers try to make the horses as ready as they possibly can to do their work. It's a partnership with three crucial parts. The trainers are the only ones that frequently have to worry about more than one horse in the field. They are also the ones that can make the most money - but also face the most stress. This year's Kentucky Derby has an interesting collection of characters in the role as trainer - from the very familiar to the completely obscure. Here are the highlights:

Kentucky Derby Trivia Questions and Answers 2016
by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2016

As we traditionally do every year, I have assembled a collection of very tough Kentucky Derby trivia questions and answers for you to test yourself with. If you get more than five of these right then you really know your stuff - and you might want to get a hobby outside of horse racing.

Danzig Candy Odds to Win the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

When Danzig Candy was pointed to the Kentucky Derby, which was no certainty after his last race, we were sure of at least one thing - there is going to be some early speed in the race. Likely favorite Nyquist and Wood Memorial winner Outwork both have early speed, but both have also shown that they don't need to be in the lead if things don't work out that way.

Creator Odds to Win the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

In eight career starts Creator has won only twice and just once outside of maiden company. On the road to the Kentucky Derby, though, it's often not about how many races you have won. It's about when you won them. His had been a largely underwhelming career through seven races. He looked nothing like a Derby contender. That eighth race, though, was the Arkansas Derby - one of the small handful of major Kentucky Derby prep races. By winning that race, and doing it pretty impressively against a deep field, he suddenly became a Derby contender - and nothing that came before mattered.

Suddenbreakingnews Odds to Win the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

Heading into the Kentucky Derby, Suddenbreakingnews has a bit of a problem. This year he has alternated good races and bad, and he is coming off a pretty good one. That could suggest that he won't be at his best in the biggest race on the planet. Of course, the sample size is small, and we need to rely on much more than simple little patterns when it comes to handicapping the Derby.

Whitmore Odds to Win the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

Sometimes success doesn't come from being the best. It comes instead from just showing up consistently and being pretty good. Good attendance plus decent talent - it's not inspiring, but it was enough to get Whitmore in the Kentucky Derby. That's more than all but 20 horses a year can claim. So, is just showing up and being somewhat talented going to be enough to allow this horse to make a statement in the Kentucky Derby? Or is this when Whitmore runs into too much talent and pretty good is no longer good enough?

2016 Lexington Stakes Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/14/2016

The Lexington Stakes is not a major Kentucky Derby prep race. Not even close - the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes award 100 Derby points to the winner and 40 to the runner-up. In this race only 10 points are up for grabs for the winner. It is likely going to take more than 30 points this year to get a spot in the Derby starting gate, so winning this race alone doesn't help.