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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


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Curlin, race horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/21/2014

Each year it seems like thoroughbred trainers get more conservative and that horses get more fragile. As such, trainers and owners try to get horses into the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby with the fewest possible opportunities for them to get injured on the way. That means we are seeing more and more horses trying to overcome some serious trends against racing in the Derby with little prior experience. Of those trends, none looms larger than the Curse of Apollo.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2014

There are few horses in the potential Kentucky Derby field tougher to judge than Tapiture. His last race was a disaster. His jockey situation isn’t ideal. His trainer is at the center of a major storm of controversy — one that is only going to intensify as the race nears. So, is the horse good enough to overcome all that? Can Tapiture win the Kentucky Derby? Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag give him a reasonable chance of success. Tapiture’s odds to win the Kentucky Derby are set at +2000, which puts him tied for the eighth choice in the likely 20-horse field.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2014

Vicar’s In Trouble gets my nod for best name in this year’s Kentucky Derby. That has never come through for me in the past, though, so it’s not an angle worth exploring. Or maybe this horse is due? While that’s an important debate in and of itself, this horse deserves attention for other reasons, too.

Jockey John Velazquez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2014

Intense Holiday is a common kind of horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby — one that makes my head hurt. At his best he is more than talented enough to win the race. That best is far from certain to appear, though, and like at least 15 horses in this race at this point, it’s very difficult to assess what is to be expected of him. This race is always very tough to handicap, but the huge number of horses like Intense Holiday — along with an absence of both real superstars and horses you can quickly toss out — makes this one even tougher than usual.

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2014

There are lots of horses in the Kentucky Derby starting gate that we knew were going to be there for months. They were talented and running well, and their connections were determined to get there. Horses have to overcome massive odds just to make the starting gate, but these horses aren’t a real surprise. And then there are horses like Danza. He was way, way off the radar heading into his final prep in the Arkansas Derby.

Breeders' Cup Blind Luck


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2014

As a Canadian, I can’t help but pull for We Miss Artie at least a little bit. He is a Canadian-bred, born in Ontario. Because of that, he is not only being aimed towards the Derby but also, if things go according to plan, potentially the Queen’s Plate — essentially the Canadian equivalent of the Derby. Makes you want to stand up and sing “O Canada,” doesn’t it? So, patriotism aside, can We Miss Artie win the Kentucky Derby?

Kentucky Derby


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2014

Given his name, I should make some sort of clever pun about this horse and top-three results, but I just don’t have it in me. Even without the puns to think about, though, this horse leaves us with plenty to ponder. He has run on a variety of surfaces, and he has run harder in the last month than any other entrant. He could be sitting on a monster performance, or he could be a total disappointment.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver


by Trevor Whenham - 4/17/2014

Wildcat Red didn’t win the Florida Derby, but in finishing second to Constitution he put forth a truly heroic effort that earned him nothing but respect. He led the race through the early fractions before being locked onto by the eventual winner at the top of the stretch. It was a back-and-forth stretch duel that never saw Wildcat Red fade even though he was likely the more tired horse. That takes heart. But is heart enough?

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/17/2014

The first thing that needs to be said about General a Rod is that his name has nothing to do with a certain steroid-addict who has wasted a lot of the Yankees’ money. He’s actually named for Armando Rodriguez, his Venezuelan owner. The horse has actually spent the spring in a war for the hearts of racing-mad Venezuela — both he and fellow Derby entrant Wildcat Red have Venezuelan owners, and they have dueled throughout the spring.

Mario Gutierrez rides I'll Have Another


by Trevor Whenham - 4/17/2014

A couple of weeks ago it seemed like Cairo Prince was going to be a major player in the Kentucky Derby picture. He was the favorite in the Florida Derby, and the winner of that race always gets plenty of respect. If he had delivered impressively as favorite in that race then there was a very good chance that he would have been Kentucky Derby favorite. He didn’t, though — not even close. A fourth-place finish in that race means that instead of being firmly in the spotlight all the way to Louisville, he is now a bit of a forgotten horse.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/17/2014

When Candy Boy finished third in the Santa Anita Derby behind likely Kentucky Derby favorite California Chrome and Hoppertunity it seemed like his Derby dreams were in real trouble. Thanks to an odd set of preps the next weekend, though, his 30 points wound up being enough to get him into the Derby field. So, now the question we have to ask is if he can prove to be more than just the third best horse out of California in the Derby.

Curlin, race horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/17/2014

If Ride On Curlin were to win the Kentucky Derby, it would be a fairytale story. Not one like Mine That Bird, but not that far off. We’ll get into the details in a bit, but rest assured that there are some characters and some crazy circumstances involved. A win would also be proof that you don’t need to be flashy or particularly spectacular on the prep road. You just need to do enough to get into the Derby.

Kentucky Derby


by Trevor Whenham - 4/9/2014

Constitution, the biggest star in a Todd Pletcher barn that isn’t as loaded this year as it has been in past years for the Kentucky Derby, is just the kind of horse that makes my head hurt. History is working against him, and we know very little about him. However, Constitution’s odds to win the 2014 Kentucky Derby are set at +1500 at Sportsbook.ag, making him the fifth choice in what has turned into a wide-open field. So, can this horse wear roses on the first Saturday in May? Or does he just have too much to overcome?

2013 Kentucky Derby


by Trevor Whenham - 4/9/2014

It was Wicked Strong who got the attention coming out of the Wood Memorial with his impressive victory in what was a surprisingly tough race. Samraat was almost as impressive in finishing second, though. He will not go into the Kentucky Derby as an undefeated horse as he suffered his first loss in six career starts in that race. For those that like the horse, though, that could be a good thing because it means the price will be far more attractive in the Derby than it would be if he had won. Samraat’s odds to win the 2014 Kentucky Derby are set at +2000 at Sportsbook.ag in early futures pools.

Kentucky Derby


by Trevor Whenham - 4/9/2014

There’s a joke here somewhere -- a horse with the most Boston of names won New York’s biggest prep race. The Boston connection for Wicked Strong is no fluke in this case - 5 percent of the horse’s winnings are being donated to support the Boston bombing victims. By winning the Wood Memorial, Wicked Strong not only earned more than enough points to secure his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but he also established himself as a legitimate contender in the biggest of races for three year olds.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/9/2014

It took much longer than it does in most years, but the Triple Crown trail has its first true superstar. California Chrome had more buzz than any horse heading into his final prep race, the Santa Anita Derby. He more than justified that hype with a truly dominating performance to win California’s biggest three year old test. Now he is the runaway favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. In futures betting, Sportsbook.ag has installed him at +300. No other horse is at less than +1000. So, can he justify the hype and deliver on Derby day?

Kentucky Derby Owners Box


by Trevor Whenham - 4/9/2014

It seems like the horses in California are particularly strong this year on the Triple Crown trail. California Chrome is likely to be the Derby favorite, but he is far from the only real West Coast contender. Among the more intriguing possibilities is Hoppertunity. The Santa Anita Derby runner-up provides interesting value at Sportsbook.ag at +2500. He has 95 Kentucky Derby points, so he has a spot in the Derby starting gate if he wants it — and he can stay healthy until the first Saturday in May.

Curlin, race horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/8/2014

The Arkansas Derby has been run since 1936, and it has been an important stop on the Triple Crown trail for many years. Despite its strong reputation, though, just two winners of the race have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby — Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Smarty Jones in 2004. That doesn’t mean that winners of the race are mostly irrelevant, though. Since Smarty Jones emerged from the race, Afleet Alex won and then won two Triple Crown races, Curlin won the Arkansas Derby and the Preakness, and Bodemeister was second in both the Derby and Preakness in 2012.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/8/2014

The best thing about this year’s edition of the Blue Grass Stakes is that it’s the last that will be run on a synthetic track. Keeneland installed a synthetic surface — a lousy one at that — after the 2006 edition of this race. Before that this was a very important Triple Crown prep, producing legends over the last few decades like Strike the Gold, Holy Bull, Skip Away, Summer Squall, Prairie Bayou and others. Since the change, though, the race has become increasingly irrelevant since form on this track doesn’t transfer to Churchill Downs at all.

Mike Smith, horse racing jockey


by Trevor Whenham - 4/2/2014

It’s hard to believe, but with the dawning of April we are just a month away from post time for the Kentucky Derby. Often at this time of year we see a fairly clear picture emerging of which horses might be the top contenders. This year all we see is a total mess. After the Florida and Louisiana Derbies last weekend the field is as wide open as it can be at this time of year. Top contenders have faltered when given their opportunity, and lesser horses have excelled, but we don’t know if they can keep doing it.

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