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Firenze Fire Odds to Win the 2018 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions


by - 4/26/2018

Belmont Stakes entrant Unlimited Budget

Firenze Fire is a reminder of how dramatically things can change in horse racing in a fairly short time. Heading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year the horse had just won Grade 1 race, beating Kentucky Derby hopefuls Good Magic and Enticed, and he seemed like a decent value play at 11/1. Since then, though, he has gone from solid and interesting Triple Crown contender to the horse most likely to go off at triple-digit odds in the Kentucky Derby. He's just taking up a spot in the Derby starting gate - he's not a viable contender at all. The good news, though, is that it's not like there is a particularly intriguing horse that he is keeping out of the gate. So, we'll look at this horse in detail, but this is what you need to remember - he peaked a long time ago and he is not a viable Derby contender in any way.

Last race: I guess the Wood Memorial wasn't a massive disappointment. I mean, he was the fourth betting choice in the race and he wound up fourth. But it really wasn't good. He had a mild excuse in that he was driven wide on both turns. But when he was asked to charge down the stretch, and he had room to move, he had no answer. He just wasn't good enough, and there was nothing in the race that makes me think that it was anything other than an illustration of where this horse is at. It's not like he is going to get any better in a hurry, and he would have to be dramatically better than he was to factor into the Derby.

Prior experience: Things started out so well. He won his maiden convincingly in June at Monmouth and then made a big jump up to graded stakes company a month later in the Sanford at Saratoga. He won there as well, with fellow Kentucky Derby no-hoper Free Drop Billy finishing second. He faltered late in the Hopeful in September, finishing fourth. But then he came back in October in the Champagne and ran the race of his life to win against a strong field. But the magic didn't cross the country with him as he was very flat in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, never firing and finishing a distant seventh to end his two-year-old season. He didn't wait long, though, to debut at three. On Jan. 13 he won the listed Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct. He showed a lot of heart that day, grinding out the win in the stretch. That was his last strong race. He was second in the Withers but didn't show any kick when he was well positioned and ready to make a move. Then, in the Gotham, he again didn't have an answer when asked, and while he stayed in fourth place the whole way he lost more than four lengths in the stretch. It's worth noticing that while he has four wins, none have come at more than a mile.

Trainer: Jason Servis is a long-time trainer who is finding increased success lately - his four graded stakes wins in 2017 were as many as he had in the previous nine years combined. He doesn't have a lot of top-end experience - this is his Derby debut, and a second in the 2012 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint is the closest he has come to the big time. But Servis is not entirely a stranger to Derby pressure. Jason's brother John went on a wild ride in 2004 when he trained Smarty Jones to wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Jason was on the sidelines as a fan. John also won the Kentucky Oaks in 2016 with Cathryn Sophia, so Jason will have plenty of good advice about the craziness of Derby weekend to draw on.

Jockey: Paco Lopez is a very consistent jockey. In the last four seasons he has been ranked 14th nationally in earnings three times and 19th the other year. And he has ranked as high as fifth nationally in wins in 2014. The guy can ride - he rides a lot of horses and does it well. But he hasn't had a lot of high-end experience. He is making his Derby debut. And while he has had a solid handful of Breeders' Cup mounts over the years, he doesn't have a win. In fact, though he has been riding full time since 2008 he only has three career Grade 1 wins. He's a good rider in deep on a horse with issues. Not ideal. And he's also riding this horse for the first time in the Derby, which isn't a great development.

Breeding: Sire Poseidon's Warrior is a Grade 1 winner, but the issue is that he was a sprinter. And Poseidon's Warrior is a son of Speightstown, who won the Breeders' Cup Sprint. That is not ideal for a horse facing the test of the Derby distance - obviously. Poseidon's Warrior is also a sire who has not made a big impact - Firenze Fire has earned $669,100, which is nearly $570,000 more than the second-most-successful offspring of the sire. And Firenze Fire's damsire is Langfuhr, who was the champion Canadian sprinter in 1996. At least he has done a decent job of breeding for stamina, with Lawyer Ron and Canadian Triple Crown winner Wando among his progeny. Add it all up, though, and it's tough to imagine this horse liking the Derby distance at all.

Odds: This colt sits at 100/1 in the futures markets, and it's hard to argue that at all. There is no value here despite the big price.

Can Firenze Fire Win the 2018 Kentucky Derby?: No. He's not bred for it, and his recent form has been awful. He's just not up to the challenge of this race at this distance. He's an easy horse to toss in this one.

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