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2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shots: Expert Advice and Betting Tips for Finding Value

by Chris Vasile - 9/4/2020

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2

The Kentucky Derby is just over 24 hours away. And as I write this, all of the attention has been put on Tiz the Law and his quest to win the second leg of the American Triple Crown. Tiz the Law has been nothing short of stellar so far this year, and he’s rightfully earned the tag as morning line favorite and likely race favorite come 6:45 pm EST on Saturday.

We’ve already touched on how weird 2020 has been throughout the world/sporting world, and this year’s Derby is a unique one in its own right. There are a lot of pretty solid horses in the field and a lot of potential winners, but Tiz the Law definitely stands out above the rest as the horse to beat. If we throw in the post-position angle, then that gives Tiz the Law a bit of a hindrance to his effort of winning the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Since we’ve already broken down a few of the top contenders, I’m going to look at the long shots that have a chance. Here are three Kentucky Derby live long shots from my point of view, arranged in descending order of their current futures price.

Thousand Words (+1800)

This Bay horse was purchased for a pretty $1 million as a yearling and was instantly put on the Derby trail thanks to winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). That race showed how gutsy this horse is as he was in a three-way tussle down the stretch, and he pulled away to win by a neck. He has the pedigree to go long, and his morning line price of 18/1 is awfully enticing for bettors looking to back one of the most successful Kentucky Derby trainers in history. Thousand Words has a great starting position and is only one of a handful of horses entering the Derby off the back of a victory. He’s got a few things going for him. And if Tiz the Law falters, Thousand Words may pull off the upset and paint the perfect picture.

Sole Volante (+3300)

If you’re looking for a major player to crack the trifecta and light up the tote board, it’s Sole Volante. Sole Volante is over 30/1 for the sole reason that he simply didn’t fire off well in the Belmont Stakes. He was beaten quite easily, and we believe he has an excuse for that race to look past. He had just won an allowance race 10 days prior at Gulfstream and simply had no energy left in the tank to tangle with the big boys. Now, Sole Volante is freshened up and the Gelding is ready to put in a big effort. Outside of the Belmont, he’s cracked the top three in each of his six races, with wins coming in the Sam F. Davis Stakes by 2 ½ lengths and a runner up behind a now scratch King Guillermo in the Lambholm South Tampa Derby. Sole Volante will need plenty of pace to chase down at the front. And with the pace figuring to be pretty quick, we can expect to see Sole Volante making a charge down the home stretch.

Money Moves (+5000)

Normally, betting on a lightly-raced three-year-old in the biggest race of their career is asking for failure. However, 2020 has been a weird year, and we would expect nothing less than weird to be the norm tomorrow come post time. Money Moves is a Candy Ride colt who has the pedigree and has shown the talent to make some noise at a big price tomorrow. Money Moves won his first two starts by a handful of lengths in February, going three quarters of a mile and a mile, respectively, at Gulfstream.  He was then rested and brought back to go around two turns (1 1/8) while facing older horses and was a solid second thanks to a great stalking trip that couldn’t quite get him to the wire first. He has solid connections with Todd Pletcher training for Robert LaPenta and the Bortolazzo Stable. And if the connections didn’t give him a chance in this race, he wouldn’t be here. Sure, everything is going to have to go right for Money Moves, and he’s going to have to work out a great trip, but stranger things have happened already this year.

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