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2025 Kentucky Derby Long Shots: Advice and Tips for Finding Value

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/2/2025

Justify in the Kentucky Derby

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set to begin this Saturday, and it is time to do your homework on this year’s horses. Journalism is the current favorite with 3/1 odds, while Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) follow close behind to round out the top three. However, if you are looking to find this year’s dark horse candidate, then it’s time you read up on Final Gambit, Tiztastic, and Chunk of Gold. There are reasons to like each of these horses despite the fact that they have largely flown under the radar ahead of this weekend’s race. Each horse has at least 20/1 odds and could swell the bank account if they pull it off. Now is the time to dive in and figure out which horse could be this year’s Country Horse or Animal Kingdom.

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Longshot Predictions

Final Gambit – 30/1 – 3rd Post Position

Final Gambit will be racing out of the third post position which is the same starting position as last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, emerged from. Jockey Luan Machado is getting his first crack at the Kentucky Derby this year with Final Gambit and its closer running style. In another first, this will be Final Gambits first race on dirt. It also doesn’t help that the horse with a closer style approach drew an inside post position. Regardless of the new exposure to dirt and the post position, Final Gambit has tremendous upside in that he is a proven winner. Final Gambit is coming off a big win in March where it recorded a top speed score of 96. The horses’ trainers are confident that there will be no issues with Final Gambit on dirt and with the closing ability of this horse there is some potential upside here to like.

Tiztastic – 20/1 – 14th Post Position

Tiztastic will be starting in the 14th post position in this year’s race and this horse is looking to be the 14th position’s first winner since 1961. Tiztastic benefits greatly from avoiding a post position towards the rail as his position plays into his closer running style. Tiztastic and jockey Joel Rosario are coming into the weekend with a lot of momentum as they recently won the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby back in March with Tizatasic recording a max speed score of 99. His owner Steve Asmussen has started 26 other horses and has yet to pick up a victory, but there are things to like about this longshot in Tiztastic with horse and jockey forming a pair that knows how to finish a race.

Chunk of Gold – 30/1 – 19th Post Position

At 30/1 odds there is a lot to like about an upward trending horse. Chunk of Gold has amassed one win across four races but is coming off a race where it posted a 96 top speed score. Its closer running style matches nicely with the outside post position, though the 19th post position has not been profitable with just a low 6.5% in the money rate. Chunk of Gold will be pushed aside due to the historically low numbers from the 19th post position, but this horse has great value as a longshot and could be a value pick when pairing an exotic bet. Jareth Loveberry is making his second appearance as jockey this year with his previous appearance being a second-place finish. Chunk of Gold has shown up and showed out in its young career and is a solid value choice.

Wild Card Pick: Rodriguez – 12/1 – 4th Post Position

At 12/1 odds, Rodriguez is far from considered a long shot, but the lack of success from the 4th post position could push this horse away from the favorites. This post has produced just one winner over the last 48 years, and it has been a decade since it had a horse finish in the top three. Regardless of what the historic trends tell you about this particular starting post position, the horse and its team must be considered. Bob Baffert is making his return with two horses, Rodriguez and Citizen Bull, and his horse has the benefit of experienced jockey Mike Smith who already has two Kentucky Derby wins. Rodriguez finished its last race with an incredible top speed score of 111 while also producing two other speed scores of 100+ this year. Rodriguez’s front-runner running style pairs well with its 4th post position and winning runs in the family (Authentic). With these odds, there is tremendous value here with a tremendously fast horse.

My Longshot Pick: I like Tiztastic here as my homerun pick. This horse and its jockey know how to finish a race. Not only that, but Asmussen is do for a win after going 0/26 in his career at the Kentucky Derby. There is a lot to like about the horses’ upward trending speed and the closer running style helps with its 14th post position draw. At 20/1 odds, there is a lot to like with a horse of this caliber and upside.

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