2025 Kentucky Derby Betting for Dummies and Novice Bettors

by Spencer Toth - 4/30/2025

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.

The Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race of the year, and this will be many novice and experienced bettors first look at the world of horse racing. The 20-horse racing field gives bettors endless choices for exacta or box trifecta bets, and it is easy to stray away from winning strategies this weekend. Horse racing is unlike any other commonly wagered sport, and it is crucial to fully understand what exactly you are getting into before staking your hard-earned cash. Not only is this a sport many people are unfamiliar with, but even the odds format is vastly different from the mainstream sports. However, once you understand how to effectively bet on the Kentucky Derby, this race has the potential to be one of your most profitable events of 2025.

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Horse Racing Odds Explained:

First things first, you cannot place a single dollar on the Kentucky Derby until you fully understand how horse racing odds work. Unlike many of the other major sports, horse racing doesn’t use the fixed-odds system in favor of the pari-mutuel odds system. The pari-mutuel system will not have finalized odds until the race begins and all the bets have been accounted for. Rather than betting against the sportsbook, you are betting against the other Kentucky Derby bettors (minus a percentage the book takes). The total sum of all the bets is added up, and then distributed amongst the bettors with a winning ticket.

The ‘Morning Odds’ list will give you a rough idea of what the odds are for each horse, but those 3-1 or 5-1 numbers are rounded and are subject to change as more money pours into the event. In the NFL, if you make a bet on the Kansas City Chiefs at -200 odds on Wednesday, then money pours in on the Chiefs and the line shifts to -250, your original ticket is still a -200 wager. That is not the case with horse racing, as the final odds are only calculated once every dollar has been accounted for.

What Bets Can You Make on the Kentucky Derby?

The most popular bet is on which Kentucky Derby participant will cross the finish line first, but the fun doesn’t end there. You can bet on any horse to finish inside the top two or three, or even bet on the exact order of the top finishers at the Kentucky Derby.

Straight Bets:

To Win: Your chosen horse must win the race for you to win your bet. Longest odds for straight bets, but difficult to select the winner from the 20-horse field.

To Place: Your chosen horse must come in 1st or 2nd place to win a Place bet.

To Show: Your chosen horse must come in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place to win a Show bet. The odds will be reduced, but a Show bet is much easier to win than a Place or Win bet.

Multi-Horse Bets:

Exacta: Pick which horse will finish in 1st place, and which horse will finish in 2nd place.

Box Exacta: Select which two horses will finish in first and second place (any order).

Trifecta: Pick which horses will finish in 1st place, 2nd place, and 3rd place in the correct order.

Box Trifecta: Select which three horses will finish in first, second, and third place (any order).

Superfecta: Pick which horses will finish in 1st place, 2nd place, 3rd place, and 4th place in the correct order.

How To Bet on the Kentucky Derby?

Depending on which state you live in, the method of betting on the Kentucky Derby can vary. Most of the major online sportsbooks will not have the race listed until the day of the event, and even then, there is no guarantee they will get involved with the pari-mutuel betting system.

Heading to Churchill Downs in Kentucky is an easy way to bet on this race, but you can also head to any local racetrack in your area. There are currently 64 active race tracks across North America, and you can guarantee every one of them will offer odds for the Kentucky Derby.

Strategies to win at the Kentucky Derby

Keep it Simple:

It can be easy to be drawn into the long payouts offered with Trifecta or Superfecta bets, but these wagers are incredibly difficult to get right. Think of it as an NFL parlay across several games. The potentially big payout can be tempting, but you will end up with $0 more often than not if you put a majority of your bankroll on multi-horse bets. Instead, stick to Win, Place, and Show bets, especially if this is your first Kentucky Derby. You can still place a variety of single horse bets on the event, but getting carried away with several complicated pseudo-parlays is a surefire way to leave empty-handed.

Don’t Chase Long Odds:

In a similar vein to the previous point, chasing long odds can be an easy way to light your money on fire. The outright favorite has won approximately 1/3 of the 150 Kentucky Derbies, while a large majority of the other victors were inside the top five of the closing odds. Placing a few dollars on a 30-1 or 50-1 longshot is not the end of the world, but don’t get auto-bet the longshot horses. Remember, if you place 5 bets on 40-1 horses and one wins, you will receive the same payout as one bet on an 8-1 winning horse.

Monitor the Weather:

This is something that novice and professional Kentucky Derby bettors can all do equally, and that is reading a weather report. The track conditions will play a big role in crowning the 2025 Kentucky Derby champion. Certain horses are better in sloppier conditions while others thrive on hard dirt. By keeping an eye on the weather report for Saturday evening, you can maximize your odds of coming out on top.

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Start:	April 30, 2025 @ 7:30 PM
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