2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Numbers: Post Positions and Expert Analysis

by Robert Ferringo - 4/29/2024

Aristides was an Athenian statesman and general during the Persian War. He was nicknamed, “The Just” and was a huge fan of boxed exactas.

He was also the namesake of a Pennsylvanian horse breeder, Aristides Welch, in the 1970’s. And Welch was in turn the namesake for a small chestnut thoroughbred with “a white str and two hind stockings” born in Kentucky in 1972.

That horse, Aristides, would go on to win the first-ever Kentucky Derby in 1875, beating 14 other horses and earning a $2,850 pot (about $80,000 today).

Saturday, May 4, will feature the 150th consecutive Kentucky Derby. The Derby, along with Friday’s Kentucky Oaks race, are the oldest continuously held major sporting events in the United States.

The race will commence at 6:57 p.m. on Saturday at Churchill Downs and can be watched on NBC. The $5 million winner’s payout will be the largest in the history of the race.

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The field for this year’s Kentucky Derby is set after Saturday evening’s post draw. While the race itself has been a paragon of consistency, the horse draw has not been. Last year it took place on the Monday before the race, and the organizers have tried several other gimmicks with the draw (including doing a draft-style post draw where the owners could pick their horse’s position) over the past decade.

Regardless, we have a field and we have horse numbers for this historic race between some of the fastest three-year-old horses in the world.

This year will again feature a full 20-horse field, with two horses, Epic Ride and Mugatu, respectively, serving as alternate horses if there are any scratches between now and post time.

Just two years ago, alternate Rich Strike actually won the Derby as an 80-to-1 longshot after being added to the field late. That was the second-biggest upset in Derby history, behind Donerail’s 91-to-1 victory in the 1913 Derby.

The post draw is an important feature of race week leading up to the annual “Run For The Roses”. The posting spots do have an impact on how horses are expected to run and are factored into the morning line odds.

For instance, horses in the No. 1 and No. 2 spots can get pushed against the rail and get caught in traffic. Conversely, horses posted No. 16 and wider get to avoid the early race crush but will be forced to run a longer race.

Here are the post positions for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, with odds in parentheses:

1. Dornoch (20-1)

2. Sierra Leone (3-1)

3. Mystik Dan (20-1)

4. Catching Freedom (8-1)

5. Catalytic (30-1)

6. Just Steel (20-1)

7. Honor Marie (20-1)

8. Just a Touch (10-1)

9. Encino (20-1)

10. T O Password (30-1)

11. Forever Young (10-1)

12. Track Phantom (20-1)

13. West Saratoga (50-1)

14. Endlessly (30-1)

15. Domestic Product (30-1)

16. Grand Mo the First (50-1)

17. Fierceness (5-2)

18. Stronghold (20-1)

19. Resilience (20-1)

20. Society Man (50-1)

Last year’s winner, Mage (15-to-1), left from the No. 8 post. That spot has produced 11 past winners, while No. 4, No. 7 and No. 10 have contributed 10 winners apiece.

Rich Strike’s upset in 2022 wasn’t just notable because of the long odds. The horse also joined Big Brown as the only mount to win the Derby from the No. 20 post. Rich Strike was just the 13th horse in the 149-year history of the Kentucky Derby to win the race starting No. 15 or wider, and only eight horses have claimed the title starting at No. 17 or wider.

This year’s early favorite, Fireceness, drew post No. 17. There has never been a winning horse in this race wearing No. 17.

Winners from the wide posts is a relatively recent phenomena. Seven of the last 13 winners have started from post No. 16 or wider. It has become much more common for horse to start wide, avoid the crush at the rail, and manage to win on the stretch despite an overall longer race form the outside.

Dornoch drew the dreaded rail at post No. 1. Even though 12 all-time winners have come from the No. 1 post, the last winner from the rail was Winning Colors in 1988.

Here is the total number of winners produced by each post position since the introduction of the starting gate in 1930:

1 – 8

2 – 7

3 – 5

4 – 5

5 – 10

6 – 2

7 – 7

8 – 10

9 – 4

10 – 9

11 – 2

12 – 3

13 – 5

14 – 2

15 – 6

16 – 4

17 – 0

18 – 2

19 – 1

20 – 2

Robert Ferringo has been one of the most profitable Triple Crown horse racing handicappers in the country. Robert has picked the winner in 25 of 38 Triple Crown races overall and finished the 2023 Triple Crown season with a winner in the Belmont.

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