2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Numbers: Post Positions and Expert Analysis

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/1/2025

Kentucky Derby horse numbers Citizen Bull

The 2025 Kentucky Derby kicks off this weekend, and we are here to give you some of the latest trends and predictions on this race. The Kentucky Derby is a wagering pastime, and it has only continued to grow more popular as time has gone on. Last year it is reported that approximately $210 million was bet on this race in 2024, and the number is once again expected to increase this year. With the 151st edition of this race set to begin, let’s dive into the historic numbers and trends around each post position and discuss which position has some intriguing 2025 draws.

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Post Position by the Numbers

1 – This post position has produced eight winners but hasn’t had one since 1986. This position has also finished in the money 18.9% of the time, but has failed to do so over the last seven years.

2025 Draw Analysis- Citizen Bull will give it a go here and he provides solid longshot value here at 20-1 considering he has finished in the money in five out of his previous six races. Jockey Martin Garcia will be heavily reliant on a fast start here from his horse in his fifth Kentucky Derby race. Trainer Bob Baffert will look to Citizen Bull to push him the winningest horse trainer in history. Baffert’s horses have finished in the money in 68% of their races this year.

2 – The second post has produced seven winners all time, but like the first post, it has been a long time since we have seen a winner start here (1978). However, despite not producing a winner in a long time, the second post leads the way with 26 all-time in the money finishes (27.4%). Sierra Leone finished second out of this spot last year.

2025 Draw Analysis- Neoequos has been given 30-1 odds here in the second post position. This will be an entirely new track and venue for Neoequos here which could factor into a potential DNF status here due to the unfamiliarity. However, the horse has a top three finish in its last six races. Flavien Prat is set to make his eighth appearance in the Kentucky Derby, and he previously won the race in 2019. Despite the recent success of horse and jockey, there isn’t a lot of positivity swirling around Neoequos ahead of the race.

3 – The third post has produced a lowly 6.4%-win rate throughout its history, though last years winner Mystik Dan emerged from this starting post. Horses have finished in the money 21 times (23.2%), making this one of the most profitable posts in the race.

4 – Super Saver was the last winner out of this spot back in 2010, but the fourth post position has a lowly win rate of just 5.3%, producing just one winner over the last 48 years. It is also one of the least profitable positions, finishing in the money just 15.8% of the time. There hasn’t been a top three finisher since 2014 here.

2025 Draw Analysis- Rodriguez is ready to change this posts fortunes this year. Baffert will once again bring his hall of fame expertise here with his second entry. With 12-1 odds, Rodriguez and experienced jockey Mike Smith do bring forth some enticing value with a post position due for a turnaround. Smith is also a two-time Kentucky Derby winner. Rodriguez is flying under the radar here.

5 – The fifth post has been arguably the most successful position this century. Since 2000, four winners have started here with the most recent being Always Dreaming in 2017. The horse that starts here has finished in the money in 23.2% of the races with the most recent being Audible in 2018.

6 – This is one post position to stay away from. There have only been two winners starting in the sixth spot with the last coming in 1993. It has also finished in the money just 13.7% of the time, which is the fourth lowest out of the 20 positions.

7 – The seventh post position has produced three winners since 2007 and eight winners all time. Mandaloun was this positions last winner and horse to place in the money back in 2021. The seventh position ranks fifth in top three finishes (21.3%).

8 – The eighth spot has produced nine winners all time which is tied for the second most amongst the 20 positions. Mage (2023), Mine That Bird (2009), and Barbaro (2006) are the three winners since 2000. This spot has also finished in the money 20 times with Mage being the last horse to do so in its 2023 win.

2025 Draw Analysis- From the looks of it, we may very well get another winner out of this spot. At 3-1, Journalism is the heavy favorite heading into the race in large part to its 108-speed figure. This horse has the highest average speed of this year’s field and has won four straight races heading into the weekend. Favorites are favored for a reason, don’t be afraid of the chalk pick here.

9 – The ninth position is one of the unluckier spots of the table. With just four winners all time, with the last coming in 1972, this is one of those post positions the numbers tell you to avoid. However, winners have come up just short here and this post position has finished in the money 19.8% of the time.

2025 Draw Analysis- Burnham Square has 12-1 odds ahead of this weekend’s race with three first place finishes in its last four races. In its last race the horse recorded a 104-speed score which certainly provides some intriguing odds here. Brian Hernandez Jr. is the jockey and is coming off a win in last year’s race and could become the seventh jockey all-time to win back-to-back Kentucky Derby’s.

10 – Tied with the eighth position, there have been nine winners to emerge from this starting spot. However, it has been underwhelming over the last 20 years with the last winner coming in 2005. This spot is second behind the second position with 24 in the money finishes and is the leading spot with an in the money rate of 29.5%.

11 – Another spot to stay away from, there have only been two winners from the 11th spot. It has been 36 straight races without a victor from this position, though it did finish in the money last year with Forever Young. Despite the success from last season, this position’s 14.3% in the money rate is one of the worst rates of the 20 positions.

12 – The 12th spot is another position with a light winning group. There hasn’t been a worse to win the Kentucky Derby out of this spot since 1971 with Canonero II becoming just the third horse to win this race out of this position. It is also one of the least profitable positions as it hasn’t had a horse show since 2005.

13 – The 13th post position has produced four winners and has a 6.4%-win rate. There have been two winners out of this position since 2000 with Nyquist being the most recent in 2016. Nyquist was also the last horse to show out of this position in 2016, though this has been one of the more profitable positions in history, ranking sixth with a in the money rate of 20.6%.

14 – Carry Back (1961) and Middleground (1950) are the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have started in the 14th post position. The 63-year drought is the longest among positions with previous winners. It does have an in the money rate of 19.5% with the last horse to have a top three finish being Angel of Empire in 2023.

2025 Draw Analysis- Tiztastic is coming off an impressive win in its last race back in March, posting its best speed score (99). In two previous races at Churchill Downs, Tiztastic finished second and third, but the average speed score was a mere 89. Tiztastic’s most recent win came with Joel Rosario as his jockey as the two will once again look for a win this weekend. Both horse and jockey are closers so there is a lot of value to be had with 20-1 odds.

15 – This starting post position has produced three winners since 2013 with Authentic being its reigning winner in 2020. The 9.5%-win rate is one of the better post position win rates of the field. Despite the above average win rate, the in the money rate is in the lower half at just 14.3%.

16 – The 16th post position has four winners with the most recent being Animal Kingdom back in 2011. This spot has an in the money rate of 19.2% with the most recent top three finish being from Commanding curve in 2014.

2025 Draw Analysis- Coal Battle has won four of its previous five races and has amassed a top speed score of 104. Possible rainy conditions also favor Coal Battle here with 40%-50% chance of rain at varying points throughout the day on Saturday. This horse is a great longshot pick with 30-1 odds.

17 – The 17th post position is the only spot to have not produced a winner in the history of the Kentucky Derby. However, it should be noted that this post position only has 42 starts thanks to scratches. The 17th post position has only produced three in the money finisher with the last one coming in 1988.

2025 Draw Analysis- Things could change for this unlucky 17th post position this time around. Sandman has the third best odds this year at 6-1 behind only Journalism and Sovereignty. Sandman’s jockey, Jose Ortiz, has had some recent success at the Kentucky Derby and Sandman has produced three consecutive speed scores of 100 or more, with the top score of 104 in its last race in late March. This horse has won three times in eight starts. Watch out, the 17th spot may find some success this year.

18 – Country House is the latest winner coming out of the 18th post position, taking the race back in 2019. However, Gato Del Sol (1982) is the only other winner to emerge from this starting position. The post position’s 16.2% in the money rate ranks 12th amongst the 20 spots.

2025 Draw Analysis– Sovereignty drew the 18th post position for this year’s race and this horse has the second-best odds at 5-1. Despite the odds, there is a lot of doubt surrounding this horse. Sovereignty top speed score of 99 did come at Churchill Downs, but the speed score has trended down over its last two races. It remains to be seen whether or not Sovereignty will live up to the hype.

19 – I’ll Have Another became the only winner from the 19th post position back in 2012. The 3.2%-win rate is one of the lowest amongst the 20 positions. Pairing that with a 6.5% in the money rate, doesn’t bode well for any horse that draws this starting mark.

2025 Draw Analysis- Chunk of Gold has four consecutive top two finishes and is coming off a second-place finish with a max speed score of 96. At 30-1 odds there is a lot to like out of a horse that is getting little to no attention. The starting post position doesn’t help, but there is a lot to like out of a longshot pick that has never finished worse than second.

20 – The 20th post position has produced two winners and has an impressive 10.5%-win rate, which is tied for the best win rate of any post position. Rich Strike (2022) is the latest winner from the 20th post and the post position has a 15.8% in the money rate.

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Start:	July 1, 2025 @ 3:05 PM
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