2025 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends

by Spencer Toth - 4/30/2025

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2

The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be the 151st Run for the Roses, and a wide variety of betting trends have emerged throughout the years. This is the biggest horse race of the year, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for the hopeful participants. There is no better thrill than betting on the 1 1/4 mile long race this weekend, and by examining the betting trends, you can maximize your chances at coming out on top.

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Prep Race Success:

The Kentucky Derby unofficially kicks off the horse racing season, but that doesn't mean this is the first race these horses have run this year. There have been 6 major prep races leading up to the 2025 Kentucky Derby and countless other smaller races to get these stallions ready for the race. Prep race success has been a crucial factor in predicting the Kentucky Derby champion, as 28 of the last 40 champions have won at least one prep race before the Derby. Last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, came third in his major prep race, but that doesn’t mean this category should suddenly be ignored. The outright favorite, Journalism 3-1, did not race in one of the major six races, but he did win both of his smaller prep races leading up to the event. Sovereignty is the second favorite on the morning odds list, but he lost the Florida Derby to Tappan Street. The other prep race winners were Sandman 6-1, Rodriguez 12-1, Burnham Street 12-1, Tiztastic 20-1, and Final Gambit 30-1. These five horses have an increased potential to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby and should be near the top of your list of potential winners this year.

Trainers are Everything:

It is easy to get lost in the athleticism of the horses and the skill of the jockeys, but this race will already have been won thanks to the work the trainers put in during the months and years leading up to this race. While the natural gifts of the competitors cannot be ignored, a strong trainer can be the difference maker in a race with the magnitude of the Kentucky Derby. Bob Baffert has the most Kentucky Derby wins in history, and now that his three-year suspension has been lifted, Rodriguez and Citizen Bull are two horses to keep an eye on. Final Gambit is another horse to keep an eye on, as Brad H. Cox is a decorated trainer who won the 2021 Kentucky Derby. D. Wayne Lukas has four Kentucky Derby wins to his name, and he will be looking for his first Derby win this century with American Promise. While there will always be a new trainer ready to etch their names into the history books, sticking to the proven winners is never a bad idea at the Kentucky Derby.

Post Positions are not to be ignored:

The starting post for each horse may not feel like a major factor in determining the race winner, but several trends have emerged in recent years. The middle posts from 5 to 15 have been the most successful, but as the field expands, the ideal post position appears to be climbing too. More than half of the last 25 winners have started from post position 13 or wider. The most decorated starting gate is number 10, with the highest win percentage and “in the money” percentage, but many of those races were run with much smaller fields. A strong horse can overcome any starting spot, as Mystik Dan did from post position 3 last year, but there are strong trends that favor positions 10 through 16 for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Favorites are Faltering:

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the outright favorite won the Kentucky Derby in five consecutive races. However, that trend has completely flipped on its head as of late, as the outright favorite has failed to win in the five races since. Mystik Dan was a sizable 18-1 underdog when he won last year, and the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner paid out at 81-1 odds. Putting a portion of your bankroll on the favorite used to be a surefire way to break even at the very least, but that appears to no longer be the case. Journalism is a 3-1 favorite with Sovereignty right behind at 5-1, but these are still much longer odds than the outright favorites had last year (5-2 and 3-1). This signifies this is another wide-open edition of the Kentucky Derby, and the trend of blindly tailing the favorites may be a thing of the past.

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