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Best Trifecta Bets for the 2020 Kentucky Derby

by Chris Vasile - 9/2/2020

American Pharoah, racehorse

If you’re in the business of betting horses, chances are you’ve found yourself daydreaming about hitting it big at the track. The only real way you can do so is by playing the exotics, and more specifically the trifecta and superfecta options. The Kentucky Derby is perhaps the most famous horse race on the planet, and it is very trifecta friendly if you know how to put together the best possible ticket. Sure, the Derby features 20 horses all heading into the starting gate with hope. However, once you break down the race, there are only a handful of horses that have a legitimate shot of winning. The trifecta allows you to use multiple horses and multiple combinations and possibly connect with a big winner. For example, if you were to play the $1 trifecta in last year’s Derby, you would have walked away with $11,475. In 2017, a $2 trifecta bet paid just short of $17,000. As you can see, the payout is well worth the reward if you can just find the right combinations to use on your ticket.

For the sake of this article, I’ll be looking at what kind of trifecta combinations you could potentially use in order to turn a solid profit on Derby Day.

Outside Is Best

The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby happened on Tuesday, and we found out that morning-line favorite, Tiz the Law, will be leaving from stall 17. That shouldn’t be an issue for him as he generally likes to be up near the pace and that wide start will allow him to navigate his way to the front without getting boxed in from either side. Tiz the Law has shown his speed in winning the Florida Derby and then again in the Travers Stakes while prepping for this race. Remember, he also won the first leg of this year’s Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, so there is a lot on the line for the horse and connections.

 To his inside, you have Honor A.P, whose morning line odds are set at 5-1. The ridgeling by Honor Code (third in the Breeder’s Cup Classic) has the pedigree to do well in this race thanks to his mom, Hollywood Story, who has a laundry list of graded stakes appearances and a 27-4-6-6 career record worth $1,171,105 in earnings. Honor A.P. will break from stall 16. And if his win in the Santa Anita Derby showed us anything, it’s that this horse has a very quick turn of foot and doesn’t mind sitting off the pace – something he should be able to do based on where he’s leaving the starting gate from. If Mike Smith could work out a stalking trip and have him turning for him with a horse or two to charge down, he should be able to make the trifecta ticket and help you out.

And lastly, from stall 18, Authentic – who was second in the aforementioned Santa Anita Derby – may fancy his chances at upsetting the favorite in this edition of the Derby. Authentic is a quick colt who showed up with an extremely high-class speed effort while winning the Haskell Stakes back in July. If you watch that race, he had the race in hand until a late charge from NY Traffic made the race closer than it really was. If he can figure out a way to work the distance, he should be able to hit the trifecta ticket on Derby Day.

$1 Trifecta - 16, 17, 18 box.

Cost: $6.

The Bob Baffert Connection

Bob Baffert is one of the best trainers in all of thoroughbred horse racing. He owns more than 3,000 wins and will continue to train horses for the next 10+ years, which will inflate that win total and then some. He’s no stranger to big races, either, as he’s won five Kentucky Derbies, including the 2015 edition with American Pharaoh – who ultimately went on to win the Triple Crown. He also picked up a win in 2018 with Justify. This year he sends out one of the morning-line favorites in Authentic. We touched on Authentic in the above trifecta, but let me just reiterate something. If Authenticate can manage the distance, he should be able to have a great chance at closing hard and getting up into the top three at the wire.

The other Baffert horse is the No. 10 horse, Thousand Words. This Bay horse was purchased for a pretty $1 million as a yearling and was instantly put on the Derby trail thanks to winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). That race showed how gutsy this horse is as he was in a three-way tussle down the stretch and pulled away to win by a neck. He has the pedigree to go long, and his morning line price of 15/1 is awfully enticing for bettors looking to back one of the most successful Kentucky Derby trainers in history.

To round of the trifecta, you can essentially put anyone else in for third as the ticket would look something like this:

$1 trifecta – 10, 18 with 10, 18 with All
$1 trifecta – 10, 18 with ALL with 10, 18
1$ trifecta – All with 10, 18 with 10, 18.

Each ticket would cost $32 to play for a total of $96

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