Best Trifecta Bets for the 2021 Kentucky Derby
In life, people dream of winning the lottery. It’s just human nature to want to win a lottery and the millions of dollars that come with it and be able to set yourself and your kids up for life (if you manage the wealth wisely). In sports betting, every bettor dreams about hitting a massive 12-leg parlay that can turn their 10 bucks into tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. The same thing can be said about horseplayers. Every horseplayer has two dreams. The first is to turn a profit long-term. The second is to hit a trifecta or superfecta that can change the immediate future for the bettor. Last year’s trifecta payout didn’t exactly make someone “rich” – it only paid $2,623 on a $2 bet. If you look back at 2019, the $2 trifecta paid $22,950. While it’s not lottery-type money, that’s still enough to alter someone’s immediate future – whether that’s buy a car, pay off some debt, or go on vacation.
Which is why I am writing this article. I want to help you find that perfect trifecta combination so that you too can have your immediate future altered in a great way. Good luck.
The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby happened on Tuesday, and we found out that morning-line favorite, Essential Quality will be leaving from stall 14. Given what we know about Essential Quality’s run style, if he breaks out of the gate well, he should be able to get up to mid-pack as the field approaches the first turn and stalk the leaders. What happens after the first turn and before the quarter pole is anyone’s guess. However, if he can avoid any major traffic or issues, Essential Quality does have speed to burn, and we’ve seen that in spades in all four of his wins so far in his career. Given the opportunity to have first or second run at the leaders, Essential Quality might be the best option to include in the trifecta wagering.
To his inside, a few gates down, is Hot Rod Charlie, who I really like this year and whose morning line odds are set at 8-1. The colt by Oxbow (Preakness Stakes winner) has the right pedigree needed to get the Derby distance. And if I’ve learned anything in the build-up to this race, it’s that the pace is going to be slow and the stalking horses could have the best chance at reeling in the leaders. Hot Rod Charlie’s will break from stall nine. And if his win in the Louisiana Derby showed us anything, it’s that this horse has a very quick turn of foot and doesn’t mind sitting off the pace – something he should be able to do based on where he’s leaving the starting gate from. If jockey Flavien Prat could work out a stalking trip and have him turning for him with a horse or two to charge down, he should be able to make the trifecta ticket and help you out.
And lastly, from further inside the starting gate, O Besos is a horse that I fancy for his chances upsetting the favorites in this edition of the Derby and lighting up the tote board. As of writing this, O Besos is listed at 20/1 morning line odds. And with not many bettors privy to this horse, we could see him drift upwards by post time. O Besos is another stalking-style horse that I do believe will sit off the pace and charge down the leaders. In the build-up to the Derby, this colt has seen his speed figures improve dramatically each time out. In horse racing, you always want your horse to peak at the right time. And with an improvement likely, this horse may be prime to put in his peak performance in the biggest race of his life.
The trifecta ticket on Derby Day.
$1 Trifecta – 6, 9, 14 box.
The Pletcher Connection
Todd Pletcher is one of the best trainers in all of thoroughbred horse racing. He owns more than 5,000 wins and will continue to train horses for the next 10+ years, which will inflate that win total and then some. He’s no stranger to big races, either, as he’s won two Kentucky Derbies, including the 2010 and 2017 edition. He’s also got a handful of Canadian Triple Crown races under his belt and a handful of Breeders’ Cup Stakes races to boot. This year he sends out four horses, led by 6/1 morning line shot, Known Agenda. I’ve touched on what I like about Known Agenda early on this week, so give it a read and see why this horse has a shot to win this race.
The other Pletcher horse that I’m fond of is the No. 11 horse, Dynamic One. This Chestnut horse was purchased for a cool $725K as a yearling and distance was the name of the game for him. Especially since he’s out of Curlin (a two-time Horse of the Year) and his sire won the long and grueling Belmont Stakes. Dynamic One debuted at seven furlongs but was stretched out from there, ultimately losing the Wood Memorial by a head to stablemate Bourbonic, who was priced at 72/1. The distance won’t be an issue for this colt, and the speed figures he’s shown dictate that he’s capable to be right there with the top-class horses. If he’s overlooked, the price will soar. And when he hits the board, the profit will be wonderful.
To round of the trifecta, you can essentially put anyone else in for third as the ticket would look something like this:
$1 trifecta – 1, 11 with 1, 11 with All
$1 trifecta – 1, 11 with ALL with 1, 11
1$ trifecta – All with 1, 11 with 1, 11.
Each ticket would cost $38 to play for a total of $114
Want free Kentucky Derby picks for 2021? Our experts are the best Kentucky Derby handicappers in the nation, and you can get their picks free (first-time clients only), Get $60 worth of Kentucky Derby premium members’ picks free.
Most Recent Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions
- Kentucky Derby Winners
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Results and Payouts
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Betting Tips
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Facts
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Predictions with Free Trifecta Bet
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Long Shots: Advice and Tips for Finding Value
- 2022 Kentucky Oaks Predictions and Race Analysis
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Contenders
- Kentucky Derby Trivia Questions and Answers
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Pace Scenario and Analysis