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2025 Kentucky Derby Pace Scenario Handicapping and Analysis

by Joey House - 4/30/2025

Kentucky Derby facts

The 151st Kentucky Derby, set for May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs, will be a tactical battle over 1¼ miles, with pace dynamics shaping the outcome. In a field of 20 three-year-olds, the interplay of early speed, mid-race positioning, and late surges will determine who claims the roses. The contenders fall into three running styles: speed horses that lead early, stalkers who track the pace, and closers who rally from behind. Here's how these styles could define the race.

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Speed Horses: Setting the Early Tempo

Speed horses take the lead or stay close to the front, aiming to dictate the race's rhythm. They thrive by controlling the pace but can fade if the early fractions are too fast or the distance proves taxing. Citizen Bull has led wire-to-wire in major juvenile races and the Robert B. Lewis, though he faded to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby when challenged. Rodriguez dominated the Wood Memorial by leading every step, and trainer Bob Baffert's history of leveraging speed in the Derby adds confidence. Neoequos fought for the lead in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, finishing third in both, but the Derby's extra furlong may test his endurance. American Promise, the most experienced with nine starts, shone in a front-running Virginia Derby rout. Admire Daytona earned his Derby spot with a nose victory on the lead in the UAE Derby, a race that often rewards speed. East Avenue set the pace in the Breeders' Futurity and Blue Grass but faltered in the Risen Star, raising distance concerns. Owen Almighty wired the Tampa Bay Derby but faded to sixth in the Blue Grass when unable to lead. With multiple speed horses vying for control, early fractions could approach 23 seconds for the quarter and 46 seconds for the half-mile. This brisk tempo may tire the leaders, favoring horses coming from off the pace.

Stalkers: Positioning for the Strike

Stalkers settle a few lengths behind the leaders, conserving energy while staying within range to surge in the stretch. Their tactical positioning helps them avoid early battles and capitalize on fading front-runners.

Journalism, a standout with four straight wins, including three Derby trail stakes, thrives under jockey Umberto Rispoli's patient approach—sitting a few lengths back before taking command mid-stretch. Luxor Café dazzled in Japan's Fukuryu, stalking and surging to a five-length win with a bold outside move, ideal for navigating the Derby's large field. Grande pressed the pace in Gulfstream victories and rallied from seventh in the Wood Memorial, showing flexibility to stalk or close. These stalkers will likely sit three to five lengths off the leaders, avoiding the early chaos while remaining close enough to strike. A hot pace could give them the edge over tiring speed horses.

Closers: Charging from the Rear

Closers drop back early, often trailing by significant margins, and rely on a fast pace to exhaust the leaders while unleashing powerful late runs. Their success hinges on clear paths, stamina in the stretch, and standing ready to pounce on a front-running horse if they should falter a bit. Sandman rallied from 13 lengths back to win the Arkansas Derby, thriving on a fast pace that's likely to materialize. Sovereignty has rallied from mid-pack or farther back in three Derby trail starts, winning twice and finishing a strong second in the Florida Derby. Burnham Square charged from last to win the Blue Grass by a nose, while Tiztastic surged from ninth to dominate the Louisiana Derby. Final Gambit and Publisher drop far back but have rallied for wins or placings, with Publisher's blinkers-on second in the Arkansas Derby a career-best. Coal Battle shows versatility, closing in the Springboard Mile and Rebel, while Chunk of Gold has three straight second-place finishes from off the pace. Flying Mohawk and Render Judgment rely on late surges, with Flying Mohawk's allowance and efforts in the Jeff Ruby a promising indicator of what Flying Mohawk is capable of. Closers face the challenge of navigating traffic in a 20-horse field, but a torrid pace could make their late runs decisive.

Pace Scenario and Prediction

The 2025 Kentucky Derby looks to have a rapid early pace, with a crowded speed contingent pushing fractions near 46 seconds for the half-mile and 1 minute 10 seconds for six furlongs. This tempo could exhaust the front-runners, particularly those untested at 10 furlongs, setting up a race that favors stalkers and closers. With his ability to stalk and finish powerfully, Journalism is perfectly positioned to capitalize while avoiding trouble. Sandman and Sovereignty could also be dangerous if the speed falters; their closing kicks can overwhelm the field. Luxor Café offers intrigue as a stalker with a sharp turn of foot. Among the speed horses, Rodriguez and Citizen Bull may set the early tempo but risk fading late. Closers like Tiztastic and Burnham Square could shine if they find clear sailing. In a race where pace will crown the winner, Journalism's blend of tactical speed and finishing power makes him the horse to beat.

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