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March Madness Brackets Strategy
by Josh Nagel - 03/10/2008

Get March Madness Betting Odds, Winning March Madness Picks and Printable March Madness Brackets all at Doc's Sports Service. Also check out our March Madness 2008 home page.

There are some basic principles regarding the NCAA Tournament that can help the fortunes of every bettor, from the office-pool novice to the sharp futures prognosticator looking for a big score.

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Some of these are broad concepts, but they are time-tested and true, and you can do your homework on these trends by browsing previous March Madness brackets.

But the general idea for March Madness brackets strategy is to not do anything too extreme - putting each No. 16 seed in the Final Four probably isn't wise - but also being creative enough to go against popular opinion. In other words, putting all No. 1 seeds in the Final Four isn't exactly real savvy, either. Here are a few key ideas to keep in mind:

--All four No. 1 seeds never make it to the Final Four. It's a fact. It's always funny to watch prediction shows such as the one ESPN does every year, in which guys like Jay Bilas and otherwise qualified analysts break down the brackets and give predictions for each game and the tournament. These shows inevitably have all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. Can you name the last time it happened? Neither can I. The closest it has come in recent memory was the 1999 Final Four in which top seeds Connecticut, Duke and Michigan State made it. No. 4 seed Ohio State rounded out the field.

--Having said this, the best teams are usually standing at the end. Yes, the NCAA Tournament is noted for its colossal upsets, but the strongest teams often find a way to make it to the Promised Land. For example, Florida and Ohio State were clearly the best teams all of last season, and they met in the title game. The same happened in 2005 when North Carolina and Illinois reached the championship game. Target the weak top seeds for your upset specials. For instance, this year Memphis appears to be a lock for the top seed most likely to go down early. Why? After a 30-win season based mostly on pounding Conference USA patsies, the Tigers basically have proven nothing. The only team to provide any sort of resistance, Tennessee, beat them rather handily (the final score was closer than it should have been as the Vols dominated most of the way). Memphis can't shoot free throws, which will hurt in close games, and they have a host of volatile players - led by fight-waiting-to-happen lunatic Joey Dorsey -- who are destined to break down emotionally when times get tough. Kansas is another team that is bound to be a top seed, but is inconsistent and historically struggles in the postseason.

--Give or take a little, you can follow this formula: The Final Four usually consists of one or two No. 1 seeds, one or two No. 2 seeds, and one team No. 4 or lower, the proverbial darkhorse that gets hot. Last year's Final Four featured two No. 1s, Florida and Ohio State, and two No. 2s, Georgetown and UCLA. This is about right, although it lacked the usual Cinderella. In 2005, top seeds North Carolina and Illinois were joined by a No. 4 in Louisville and No. 5 Michigan State. This make-up is more indicative of the average Final Four lineup. Teams that play tough defense, rebound well and are tournament-tested make great darkhorse candidates. Look for teams such as Vanderbilt, Washington State and Michigan State to fit this criterion in this season's tournament from the No. 4 or No. 5 seed.

--Invite Cinderellas to the dance, but don't take them home. Almost every year, a team seeded No. 10 or worse makes it to at least the Sweet 16. It's never a bad idea to identify one of these strong lower seeds in a weak bracket and put them in the Sweet 16. An accurate pick or two here can put you far ahead of your office-pool opponents. However, it would be a mistake to take this too far. The fact that George Mason reached the Final Four in 2006 as a No. 11 seed was a serious exception; the worst seed to ever win it all was No. 8 Villanova in 1985. Here's the thing; strong, tournament-tested mid-majors like Winthrop have a great chance at winning a game or two this year. They are likely to be matched against a team such as Purdue in a No. 3 vs. No. 14 tilt. Purdue has had a surprisingly strong year, but is inexperienced and has mostly underclassmen on its roster. The Boilermakers are ripe for an early exit. Even so, these No. 14 seed Winthrop-like darlings rarely make it out of the Sweet 16. This is where reality sets in; the Winthrops of the world simply don't beat the North Carolinas.

After completing this article view our Basketball odds page. When it comes to betting college basketball our NCAA Tournament Point Spreads feature is a must for any NCAA basketball fan. If you plan on betting college basketball you'll also want to read our college basketball betting page. Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been recognized as a leader and trusted name in sports handicapping information.

--Have fun. Next to the Super Bowl, the NCAA Tournament reels in more would-be non-sports bettors than any other sporting event. It's a blast to fill out the tournament bracket, plunk down a few dollars and spend a couple of weeks gripping over the games and taunting, err, bonding, with your co-workers over the results. But don't take it too seriously. Even the most accomplished sports handicappers are notorious for falling flat on their faces in the NCAA Tournament, because it's such a fickle and unpredictable event. That's why novices often fare well in these office-pool competitions. Just remember to take good teams in the Final Four, don't be afraid to go against the grain a little with your picks, and you just might pocket a few bucks and win the bragging rights in your office. Until next year, that is.