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To borrow a phrase, it's the most wonderful time of the year - the time when the NCAA Tournament, the most perfect format in sports, thrills and captivates for three glorious weeks. There are few things more fun than filling out a March Madness Bracket, and nothing more satisfying than winning a pool and earning bragging rights for a whole year. If you want to win your pool then you need a plan - a March Madness brackets strategy. Because everyone loves lists, here is a list of 10 things to help you win your pool and be a hero to everyone you know:
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1. Trust number ones - There has never been a tournament in which there hasn't been at least one No. 1 seed in the Final Four. In many cases there are more than one team. No. 1 seeds earned their positions for a reason, and they at least theoretically have the easiest path to the Final Four. If you draw up a Final Four without some No. 1s going deep then you're making a mistake.
2. Don't trust No. 1s too much - There has only been one occasion - in 2008 - when all four number one seeds have made the Final Four. That could happen again, but there's a much better chance that there is going to be an upset or two somewhere along the line. To win your pool you need to take a risk or two along the way.
3. Remember the number 16 - There are an average of 16 upsets per year in the bracket. Last year there were exactly 16. This is a good guideline for the number of upsets you should look to have. The smart handicapper will look to have the largest number of those upsets in the first two rounds.
4. Don't get fooled by seeds - You can rest assured that a one seed is better than a 16. In the middle of the bracket things get much more complicated, and you definitely can't always assume that the higher ranked team is the better one. For example, a five or six seed can be a solid but flawed major conference team, while an 11 or 12 can be a very good mid-major team. Utah State, Old Dominion, and San Diego State are all examples of lower seeded teams that could be dangerous early on.
5. Watch the 5-12 matchups - This is the most publicized setting for first round matchups, and with good reason. Last year three of the four 12 seeds won their first round games. Though that's more than expected, it's also an expectation that a 12 or two is going to have a particularly good day. There are at least two vulnerable five seeds in my mind this year - Michigan State and Texas A&M.
6. Be consistent - It doesn't matter what approach you take to picking your bracket. You just need to make sure that you stick to that approach throughout the bracket. There is nothing more frustrating than looking at a bracket during the tournament and realizing that you should have properly picked the winner in a game but you didn't for some reason you now can't remember.
7. Work backwards - The most effective way to set up a winning bracket, in my mind, is to start at the end. I like to pick the teams that I like for the Final Four first, and then work from there back from round to round until you end up with your first round winners. Doing it that way ensures that you don't eliminate quality teams that you really like before they should be eliminated.
8. Don't be ridiculous - There is nothing that feels better than picking a stunning upset correctly, but you have to remember how rare they are. 16 seeds are a perfect 0-100 in the tournament. 15 seeds are only slightly better at 4-96. The 13 and 14 seeds are significantly better, but still have only made it as far as the Sweet Sixteen six times in 200 tries, and none have ever won a third game.
9. Understand the format - There are several different potential formats for a March Madness bracket, and each one requires a different March Madness brackets strategy. In some pools you are rewarded most for getting the Final Four right, so it pays to take few risks and go with quality. In other formats you get bonus points for picking upsets, and those bonus points can be enough to make a difference in the outcome of a pool. In those cases it makes more sense to take some calculated risks to try to come out on top.
After completing this article view our Basketball odds page. When it comes to betting college basketball our NCAA Tournament Point Spreads feature is a must for any NCAA basketball fan. If you plan on betting college basketball you'll also want to read our college basketball betting page. Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been recognized as a leader and trusted name in sports handicapping information.
10. Have fun - The worst thing you can do is over-think things. Picking a bracket is a very difficult task filled with countless variables and challenges, and picking a winning one is far more of an art than a science. It requires more luck than anything else. Everyone who wins a bracket will tell you that it was all skill and insight. They are all lying.
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