Memphis vs. South Florida
Conference Matchup: Conference USA vs. Big East
Date: 4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 20
Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Odds: South Florida -12.5; Total 52.0

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

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After back-to-back nine-win seasons this was supposed to be the year. This was supposed to be the year that South Florida took a major leap forward for a once small-time program. With their stud quarterback now a junior and with a sure-fire first round draft pick leading the defense, the Bulls were the prohibitive favorites to win the Big East and were going to be a major player in the BCS bowl scene.

And after five straight wins the Bulls were No. 10 in the country and well on their way. But then came a loss at home to Pittsburgh and then the bottom fell out. And when I say, “the bottom fell out” we’re talking about a stock market-type collapse.

South Florida dumped five of its last seven games straight up and posted a putrid 4-7 mark against the spread for the year. And as a result, they go from dreams of a New Year’s Day date to the embarrassment of a pre-Christmas Day game against a non-BCS foe.

And that right there is the point: how much motivation could the Bulls really have for their tilt with Memphis? South Florida is a 12.5-point favorite, but do they really care enough about this game to lay the wood on a weaker opponent? Or is the fear of actually losing this game – in front of a home crowd no less – enough of a motivator for a strong showing out of the Bulls?

We certainly know where Memphis stands on this one. See, South Florida used to be a Conference USA rival of the Tigers. But in 2005 the Bulls bolted for the Big East with dreams of the BCS. And now their ex-league mates are relishing an opportunity to cut South Florida back down to size.

But wanting to beat a team from a major conference and being able to do it are two completely different things.

Over the past several years, Memphis has been one of the shakiest, spottiest, least trustworthy and most frustrating teams to bet on in the country. They are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a win but are 8-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog. They are 0-7 SU against teams from BCS conferences, but five of those seven losses were by a touchdown or less. They have won three straight to earn this bowl trip, but none of their victories this year were against teams that finished over .500 and they beat just one other bowl team (Southern Miss).

The off-field factors certainly are confounding in this matchup. But this game, like all others, will be settled between the hash marks.

South Florida's defense ranks 13th in the country, allowing 291.8 yards per game, and ninth against the run (97.7). The Bulls face a Memphis team with the nation's 18th-best rushing offense at 205.6 yards per game and its 22nd-ranked offense (432.2).

But even if South Florida is able to hold Memphis’ running game in check, they still need to score enough points to handle this mammoth spread. The Bulls haven’t scored more than 20 points in their final five games and their seven-point dud at West Virginia was their lowest output of the season. South Florida averaged 34.9 points per game in their wins but just 14.8 in their five losses.

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I think this wager is going to be decided in the first 10 minutes of this game. If Memphis comes out and gains some first downs and is able to run the ball then I suggest not wasting your time on this one. One big play or two will empower the Tigers and give the Bulls even more reason to mail this one in. But if the Bulls can come out firing, swarming on defense and are able to generate some early points then I think this one could turn out to be the bloodbath that the number suggests.

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