NASCAR Nextel Cup Series: Subway 500 Picks
by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/18/2007
Jimmie Johnson, the defending Subway 500 champion, looks to rebound from his worst finish at Lowes Motor Speedway since 2001, this Sunday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway for the sixth installment in the Chase for the Nextel Cup. Halfway through the Chase the question is whether Johnson, or anyone else, can stop Jeff Gordon and Hendrick Motorsports' No. 24 car?
In case you missed the race last weekend, Jeff Gordon won his second consecutive Chase race and earned his sixth Nextel Cup win of the season. His masterful win at Charlotte gave Gordon a commanding points lead in the Chase. He increased his lead over teammate Johnson from nine points to 68 points. Holding onto third place is Clint Bowyer who is 78 points behind. The remaining nine drivers are at least 198 points behind Gordon with five races remaining.
Gordon's struggles at LMS are well documented so when his car started sputtering as Ryan Newman took the lead with eight laps remaining in the race it looked the No. 24 car would run out of fuel. Two laps later Turn Two claimed another victim and Newman spun out all on his lonesome and virtually gift-wrapped the race for Gordon. Gordon's win at the Bank of America 500 must have been particularly sweet for the No. 24 car pilot, who recorded the first of his 81 career victories at Charlotte. Gordon had not finished higher than 24th place or lower in six of his last seven starts and at the Coca-Cola 600 In May he finished 41st.
My pick to win the race, Jimmie Johnson, led for 95-laps and looked like a lock to win until a series of mishaps doomed his chances and my futures wager. Starting the misery for the No. 48 car was a spinout in Turn Two, which forced Johnson to pit several times for repairs. All things considered, Johnson was lucky to finish the race in 14th place. This was good enough to keep Johnson in second place in Chase standings and stay within striking distance of Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon.
Who will win the Subway 500?
The half-mile oval that is Martinsville Speedway is known as the "pretty paperclip," but it is also known for serving up the best hot dogs in the country. If you're coming to Virginia for the race be sure and bring your appetite. It's likely that whoever is hungriest for the title will win at Martinsville. Back on April Fools Day this year Jimmie Johnson won the Goody's Cool Orange 500 Car of Tomorrow race on the shortest track on the Nextel Cup Circuit. Guess who came in second? Gordon. On the final lap, Gordon made the move on the inside but Johnson held his ground, trading some paint and edging out Gordon for the win. In fact, it was not only a great day for "Shake-n-Bake" but also for Chevrolet, who fielded the top seven cars in the race.
I think Charlotte had a huge impact on how the last five races in the Chase will run. Last weekend Johnson was unable to capitalize on the advantage he had at LMS. This Saturday, with the Chase on the line, Johnson will have to redouble his efforts and avoid stupid mistakes so he doesn't blow another race. I don't think he can run two bad races, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win.
Gamblers should keep in mind that this is the penultimate CoT race this year. Both Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have three wins each in CoT races. However, due to the substantially lower speeds at Martinsville, the CoT design should have less of an effect on the race's outcome than it did at Talladega. Gordon, Johnson, and even Tony Stewart are favorites to win this week even though Johnson has the most success of the three drivers at the Subway 500 in the past five seasons.
The question is whether Gordon can win three Nextel Cup Chase races in a row? He swept both races here in 2005 and has notched seven Nextel Cup victories at Martinsville Speedway. So, at 6/5 odds, he is a safe bet. However, I am going with two-time Cup Champion Tony Stewart. He's in a similar situation that Johnson was last year and Johnson ran the table to win the Cup. This is exactly what Stewart will need to do if he has any hope of capturing the Cup this year.
Pick! Tony Stewart at (12/1)
NASCAR - Subway 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
The way the Chase is shaping up I'd have to be crazy not to take either Johnson or Gordon or both for this future wager. Chances are pretty good that both bets will cash, but at 6/5, where is the fun in that? The fun is in the winning, despite the short odds, I guess. I had to look back to 2002 and Winston Cup when this race was known as the Old Dominion 500 to find a winner not named Johnson or Gordon. Johnson has won the Subway 500 two of the past three years with Gordon winning the other two years. If this was a horse race I'd box Jeff Gordon (6/5), Jimmie Johnson (6/5) and Tony Stewart (2/1) for my trifecta. This is NASCAR, not horse racing, and that means that I'm backing the hottest driver on the circuit.
Pick! Jeff Gordon (6/5)
NASCAR - Subway 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
Jimmie Johnson (6/5)
Jeff Gordon (6/5)
Denny Hamlin (2/1)
Tony Stewart (2/1)
Kyle Busch1 (5/2)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (7/2)
Kurt Busch (7/2)
Carl Edwards (9/2)
Matt Kenseth (9/2)
Kevin Harvick (5/1)
Martin Truex Jr (5/1)
Ryan Newman (6/1)
Clint Bowyer (6/1)
Jeff Burton (15/2)
Kasey Kahne (10/1)
Jamie McMurray (12/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (15/1)
Greg Biffle (18/1)
Casey Mears (18/1)
Elliott Sadler (30/1)
David Stremme (30/1)
Bobby Labonte (30/1)
Paul Menard (30/1)
Reed Sorenson (30/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (30/1)
Aric Almirola (30/1)
David Ragan (30/1)
David Gilliland (30/1)
Bill Elliott (30/1)
Ricky Rudd (30/1)
Jeff Green (30/1)
Robby Gordon (30/1)
Dave Blaney (30/1)
JJ Yeley (30/1)
*odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
NASCAR - Subway 500 - Odds to Win
Jimmie Johnson (4/1)
Jeff Gordon (4/1)
Denny Hamlin (7/1)
Tony Stewart (7/1)
Kyle Busch (8/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (12/1)
Kurt Busch (12/1)
Matt Kenseth (15/1)
Carl Edwards (15/1)
Martin Truex Jr (18/1)
Kevin Harvick (18 /1)
Ryan Newman (20/1)
Clint Bowyer (20/1)
Jeff Burton (25/1)
Kasey Kahne (35/1)
Jamie McMurray (40/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (50/1)
Casey Mears (60/1)
Greg Biffle (60/1)
Aric Almirola (100/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (100/1)
Paul Menard (100/1)
Bobby Labonte (100/1)
David Stremme (100 /1)
Elliott Sadler (100/1)
Robby Gordon (100 /1)
Dave Blaney (100/1)
JJ Yeley (100/1)
Jeff Green (100/1)
Ricky Rudd (100 /1)
Bill Elliott (100/1)
David Gilliland (100/1)
David Ragan (100/1)
Reed Sorenson (100/1)
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com