Auto Club 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 02/21/2008
The Old Man, Mark Martin, will be honored for his 700th start as the high-octane road show that is the National Stock Car Association travels to California Speedway in Fontana for the next stop on the Chase for the Sprint Cup on at 3:30 p.m. Those looking for a return on their Sunday afternoon NASCAR investment need to look no further than sportsbook.com where, despite their poor showing and engine difficulties at Daytona, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jimmy Johnson and Jeff Gordon are listed as 6/1 favorites to win the race.
Here are a few thoughts after the Daytona 500. Congrats to Ryan Newman and Team Penske for a great win at Daytona. Enjoy it because there may not be too many more wins this season. Does the long hair mean we have a kinder, gentler Tony Stewart? Not! But I'd say the honeymoon at Gibbs Racing between Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart is off to a roaring start if we can judge a relationship by one race. And I do. The new teammates worked really well together and these two could prove to be a dangerous combination as the season progresses. Perhaps this year Busch can help keep Stewart from running out of gas halfway through the season. What happened to HMS? Sure, they had engine troubles leading up to the race but Junior saved face for the team. Yep, Junior is going to win a few for HMS that is for sure.
Aside from restrictor plates, another huge difference between Daytona last week and California Speedway this week is custom aerodynamics. At Daytona the rear wing set is mandated at 10 degrees with a one-inch downdraft thickness but at Fontana the spoiler can be set anywhere between zero and 16 degrees with the down force thickness of as little as 3/16ths of an inch. Unlike Daytona, California tracks and other down force tracks give teams leeway on how they want to set up their cars to best handle the CoT. The front splitter still has to be four inches above the ground but teams can choose whether they want to bring it all the way forward to increase the down force or leave it al the way back like they did last week at Daytona. So the emphasis will be on how the crew and the drivers work together on the aerodynamic adjustments to earn a nano-second edge over the competition; the difference between winning and losing our wager.
Who will win the Auto Club 500?
Dodge dominated last weekend by putting six cars in the top eight with Toyota contributing the other two cars. However, Chevrolet owned Fontana last year doing everything but winning the checkered flag. Chevy captured seven of the top nine spots, but Matt Kenseth's Ford won starting out of the 25th position and paid off at (8/1) odds. Pole sitter Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top three places while (4/1) favorite Tony Stewart finished the race in eighth place. Granted, Toyota has probably made the greatest strides this year of all the manufacturers and the added competition has definitely made it harder to handicap the outcome of each race. Certainly their obvious power makes them a contender at California's big intermediate track.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Kurt Busch win the pole again this year as he has won the pole three out of the last four races at Fontana. You won't find my money backing him if he does since he has never finished better than seventh place when starting from first. The last time Busch won this race was 2003. If you are going by last year's pattern -- HMS won half of the races last season -- it would be safe to assume a HMS driver will win this week in California. That gives us Junior (10/1), Johnson (6/1), Gordon (6/1) and Mears (35/1) as likely candidates. You can throw out Mears, so one strategy might incorporate throwing a buck down on each Gordon, Johnson and Junior, so if one of them hits the worst you'll do is double your money. This is one strategy going into the race, but not mine. It's easy to get torn between all three drivers and Junior's race at Daytona has me driven to distraction about California; almost, but not quite.
The teams I am looking at and was most impressed with last weekend, other than Penske and Dodge, was Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing. It's truly remarkable how far Toyota has come in such a short period of time. The match between Toyota, JGR and Busch might be inspired like when Gates, Balmer and Allen started hanging out. Plainly put: Toyota's engines were the bomb last week and that bodes well this week since on a big intermediate track big horsepower can and will win or lose the race. Kyle Busch looks like he's having a blast over at Joe Gibbs and with a little help from his friends he could win on Sunday. Heck, Busch even has the highest recorded qualifying speed at this track at 188 and change in 2005 and he wasn't driving a Toyota. Like green M&Ms, money makes me horny.
Pick! Kyle Busch (12/1)
Auto Club 500 Matchups
It couldn't have come much closer, or further away, last weekend as Stewart almost won the 50th Annual Daytona 500, finishing third and costing us as we backed Johnson at -1.20. Our second matchup pitted fourth wheel at HMS, Casey Mears, against Clint Bowyer, and much like our pick to win Daytona, we were victim of HMS dusting off the engines, as it were. This matchup was not even close as those who backed the 07 car won +1.05 on the race. Mears ended a disappointing 35th while Bowyer had to overcome some bumping and bruising early on in the race to finish in 24th. We won our match-up between Hamlin and Edwards. We backed Hamlin at -1.30 and his 17th place was better than Edwards 19th. The win not withstanding, I am in a hole early with my NASCAR picks to the tune of -3.15 and a 1-2 record eating chalk on the Super Speedway. With 35 races to go I figure there is more than enough time to recoup this minor setback.
Jimmie Johnson (-1.30)/Matt Kenseth (Even)
This great matchup pits two-time Auto Parts 500 defending champion Kenseth against perennial second place finisher Johnson. In fact, you'd have to go all the way back to 2002 when this race was called the NAPA Auto Parts 500 to find Johnson's name as the winner. From 2004-2006 Johnson finished this race in second place and in 2007 came in third. So it is safe to say that if anyone owns Johnson at California it is Kenseth. This is probably one of the few times I'll go against Johnson in a matchup this season.
Pick! Matt Kenseth (Even)
Kevin Harvick (-1.05)/Mark Martin (-1.25)
At last year's Auto Club 500 Martin finished fifth and Harvick finished 17th. This year's edition of the race will be historic in that the old man, Mark Martin, will race in his 700th consecutive race. We're talking Cal Ripken-esque longevity in a sport, folks. They'll pull out all the stops due the occasion but when it comes down to it he'll still have to race and it is doubtful that the other drivers will let him win because it's a milestone moment. Last season in Martin's first five races he had four top-five finishes and five top-10 finishes; a feat that won't happen this year.
Pick! Kevin Harvick (-1.05)
Greg Biffle (-1.60)/Kasey Kahne (1.30)
Biffle finished the race in 42nd place in 2005 after starting second, last year he finished 15th and in 2004 at the Pop Secret 500 he finished 35th after starting in seventh. This does not bode well for Rousch Fenway Racing. Fact is that Biffle has had trouble at Fontana. Funny enough, Kahne, powered by Dodge, last year went from second to 35th at the Auto Club 500. Kahne also finished 40th in 2005. But it was in Fontana in 2006 that Kahne finished fourth and then finished fourth at the UAW 500 and win the Golden Corral the following week. I like Kahne as the dog in this spot - especially after the prowess we saw from Dodge last week.
Pick! Kasey Kahne (1.30)
Auto Club 500 Odds from Sportsbook.com:
Jeff Gordon 6-1
Jimmie Johnson 6-1
Carl Edwards 7-1
Tony Stewart 8-1
Matt Kenseth 8-1
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 10-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Kurt Busch 12-1
Kyle Busch 12-1
Greg Biffle 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Ryan Newman 25-1
Clint Bowyer 30-1
Mark Martin 30-1
Kevin Harvick 30-1
Kasey Kahne 35-1
Jamie McMurray 35-1
Casey Mears 35-1
Jeff Burton 35-1
Juan Montoya 60-1
Reed Sorenson 60-1
Travis Kvapil 100-1
Robby Gordon 100-1
Sam Hornish, Jr. 100-1
Scott Riggs 100-1
Dave Blaney 100-1
David Gilliland 100-1
Bobby Labonte 100-1
Dario Franchitti 100-1
J.J. Yeley 100-1
Paul Menard 100-1
David Ragan 100-1
Elliott Sadler 100-1
Field ( Any Other Driver ) 20-1