NBA Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Point Spread
by Aaron Smith - 12/14/2012
Most bettors know that the New York Knicks have been red hot of late and that the Los Angeles Lakers have been ice cold. Still, even the teams who don’t get as much coverage deserve to be looked at for signs of important trends. Hot and cold streaks are the norm in a long NBA season. Keeping track of the hot teams and cold teams can help you stay ahead of the curve when betting on the NBA. Doc’s Sports will be presenting an NBA Hot and Cold Report this year to help you stay ahead of the game. Please note that statistics in this initial report are from games played between Nov. 29 and Dec. 12.
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Top Five “Hot” ATS NBA Teams
-Dallas Mavericks (5-1 ATS) Dallas hasn’t set the world on fire, but without Dirk Nowitzki no one really expected them to. The fact that Dallas is hanging around the .500 mark and waiting on Nowitzki’s return is a good sign for this team. O.J. Mayo has been one of the biggest stories of the early season in the league. Mayo is averaging 20.9 points per game, and he is shooting an amazing 52.5 percent from beyond the three-point line. Dallas could be dangerous if he stays hot when Dirk comes back.
-Washington Wizards (5-1-1 ATS) You probably didn’t expect to see the Wizards on this side of the list, but they have been covering the number nicely of late. This is a classic case of a team not needing to be good to cover the spread. They simply need to be better than expectations from oddsmakers. Washington isn’t any good offensively right now, but you have to give them credit for improving on the defensive end. The Wizards are 12th in the NBA in points allowed per game.
-Golden State Warriors (6-2 ATS) Golden State is really turning some heads right now. The Warriors have won eight of their last nine games overall, and they have covered the spread in seven of those nine games. The difference in the Warriors team this year is definitely their defense. The Warriors are holding opponents to just 43.3 percent shooting from the floor, which is good enough for sixth best in the league. It also doesn’t hurt that Stephen Curry has put up 20 points or more in eight of their last nine games.
-San Antonio Spurs (5-2 ATS) The oddsmakers are having trouble keeping up with the Spurs again this year. San Antonio is 15-7-1 ATS this year, which is the best mark in the league. Tim Duncan’s numbers are up across the board, and the Spurs lead the league in scoring at 105.5 points per game. Next week the Spurs must take on Oklahoma City and Denver on the road in consecutive nights, so this team will get a big test soon.
-Los Angeles Clippers (5-2 ATS) The Clippers have been on this report each time (twice in the hot column and once in the cold column) this year. Los Angeles is benefiting in a big way from having a healthy Eric Bledsoe this year. A lot of people seem to have forgotten just how good of a player Bledsoe is, but he is reminding them nightly of late. Jamal Crawford has been a great addition to the team. There is no question that this is the best team in Los Angeles, at least for now.
Bottom Five “Cold” ATS NBA Teams
-Detroit Pistons (2-6 ATS) The Pistons have been terrible of late. Detroit could be labeled as the team in the league most likely to go through a long drought inside of a game. The Pistons have been ahead in many of the games they have lost lately, only to see their lead evaporate because of a single horrible stretch of basketball. This team isn’t awful, but they’re going to have to start playing a full 48 minutes.
-Cleveland Cavaliers (2-6 ATS) Cleveland has had some really bad luck with injuries of late. Kyrie Irving is back in the lineup now, but the Cavs are without rookie Dion Waiters. The Cavaliers picked up a win over the Lakers in Irving’s first game back, but they followed it up with a second-half meltdown against the Pacers on Wednesday night. Andersen Varejao is leading the team in every major offensive category. Varejao is a scrappy player who has improved a lot, but it isn’t a good sign for the team that he leads them in every offensive category (even assists).
-Brooklyn Nets (2-5 ATS) Why are the Brooklyn Nets on this side of the report this time around? The simplest answer is that Brook Lopez has been out of the lineup for all seven games. Lopez is expected back in the lineup on Friday night, and it will be interesting to see if that helps the team regain its old form right away. Circle the team’s meeting with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 19. That should be a fun game.
-Charlotte Bobcats (2-5 ATS) Considering where this team was a year ago, they are certainly in a much better spot. The oddsmakers might have started giving them a little too much credit after a surprising start. The fundamentals of the team still haven’t changed. The Bobcats have no real star, and they shoot the ball about as bad as any team in the league. Four of their next five games are on the road, so it will be interesting to see how they fare.
-Houston Rockets (2-4 ATS) The Rockets are 10-11 overall, but fans have to be concerned with their 3-10 mark against the Western Conference. Jeremy Lin hasn’t been the star the team had hoped for yet, and they’ll need him to pick up his game. The Rockets are allowing 104.8 points per game, which is last in the NBA. Four of their next five games are against teams that should be in the playoffs this season. Can the Rockets pull it together or will they continue their slide?
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