NBA Season Win Totals Predictions
The NBA teams start training camp on September 28, and Labor Day is upon us, so it is time to handicap the futures. Most of the major personnel moves have been made, so the sportsbooks have posted their “over/under” odds for team win totals, and I have made my selections.
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Atlanta Hawks Under 46.5
The Hawks upset of 76ers in the playoffs has artificially inflated the public’s perception of their strength. They won 41 games last year, and I don’t see them doing much better this year.
Brooklyn Nets Under 56.5
No NBA team won more than 52 games last year, and they have older players that are susceptible to injury, and they will be rested. I’m going with the under.
Boston Celtics Under 46.5
I’m naturally going to fade toward the under for teams that have huge fan bases because they will be automatically underlayed. Plus, the Celtics have to prove that last year was a fluke before I would put any faith in them.
Charlotte Hornets Over 38.5
This is a proposition that I am definitely going to pass on, but I would take a chance with the over if I was given a free wager.
Chicago Bulls Over 42.5
The Bulls have radically improved their roster with the additions of DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Lonzo Ball to join forces Zach LaVine, so I’m all over the over.
Cleveland Cavaliers Under 26.5
This is obviously a pitifully small number, but they will be consistently outmanned, and they may wind up tanking.
Dallas Mavericks Under 48.5
Jason Kidd visited Porzingis in Latvia recently, and he liked what he saw, but this is a mighty high number for a flawed team.
Detroit Pistons Under 24.5
They may find a way to top this number, but I’m sure not going to bet on it.
Golden State Warriors Under 48.5
The Warriors won 39 games last year, and a young Klay at his best may not be worth a ten-win improvement. This is another one that I wouldn’t take for real, but my pick is the under.
Houston Rockets Under 27.5
They were the worst team in the league last year, and I expect more of the same in 2022.
Indiana Pacers Over 42.5
Indiana won 34 a year ago, and they are basically running the same guys out there – with one exception. T.J. Warren should be back at 100 percent, and they will have LaVert from the start, so I’ll take a shot with the over.
Los Angeles Clippers Over 45.5
I see no reason why the Clippers can’t duplicate the 47 wins that they registered in 2021.
Los Angeles Lakers Under 53.5
If all their stars are completely healthy for 82 games, they may eclipse this total, but that is a very big “if.”
Memphis Grizzlies Over 41.5
I think that their young players will go into the season with more confidence and a defined sense of identity after their gutsy playoff performance.
Miami Heat Under 48.5
They added Kyle Lowry, who is 35 years old, and they resigned Oladipo. The Heat will be good, but the Nets won 48 last year and the Bucks won 46. This is a high number.
Milwaukee Bucks Under 54.5
Fine team with championship inflation, and injuries happen. I’ll take the under and I’ll be in action for a good long while.
Minnesota Timberwolves Over 34.5
I’ll go with the over on the educated guess that Ben Simmons will wind up on the Timberwolves via a three-team trade.
New Orleans Pelicans Over 38.5
I’m willing to bet that a team with Brandon Ingram, Zion, and Valanciunas can win half of their games.
New York Knicks Over 41.5
The New Yorkers won 41 a year ago (in a 72-game season), they play good defense, and they added Kemba and Evan Fournier. This is a no-brainer over in my opinion.
OKC Thunder Under 23.5
You don’t have to be much to win 24 games, and I’m taking the under here. That tells you all you need to know about my view of the Thunder roster.
Orlando Magic Under 22.5
When Markelle Fultz is arguably your best player, you are not going to win many NBA games.
Philadelphia 76ers Under 50.5
There are too many question marks with the Simmons drama and Embid’s fragile health.
Phoenix Suns Under 51.5
Same cast, strong team, inflated total… I’ll take the under.
Portland Trailblazers Under 44
This is a roster situation that can go wrong if you are listening to the trade rumors, so I can’t bet the over.
San Antonio Spurs Over 28.5
They aren’t good, but they won 33 during an abbreviated season last year, so the over seems like the logical bet.
Sacramento Kings Over 35.5
I don’t feel strongly about this one at all, but they have a bunch of young players that have a right to improve.
Toronto Raptors Over 36.5
This is a deep team with enough talent to potentially win as many as they lose.
Utah Jazz Under 51.5
I look at this as an automatic under because the number is so high. Yes, they might have another super season, but I’ll take my chances.
Washington Wizards 34.5
The Wizards will have a new look with Kyle Kuzma, Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell, and Kentavious Caldwell Pope joining Bradley Beal. Given the modest number, I’m willing to take a shot on the over in this spot.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
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