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NBA Betting Trends Analysis and Expert Handicapping 12/31/2025

by Jeremy Block - 12/31/2025

NBA betting trends and expert handicapping Kevin Durant Houston Rockets

The 2025 betting year is coming to an end. And whether you're figuring out which bar to hit first for the ball drop or deciding which New Year's parties to swing by, there’s never a bad time to keep an eye on the latest NBA betting trends. I’ve got a few insider tips to help you start the new year with a fresh betting slate.

It’s been a whirlwind of devastating injuries, with stars being sidelined for the coming weeks, which will definitely play a role in upcoming games—especially when betting on the spread. And let’s not forget about teams that are a mess when they’re not playing on their own floor. Pull up a chair, and let’s dive into some key trends to watch out for heading into 2026.

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Denver Down Nikola Jokic

A team playing without its star is never easy, especially when that star can do it all, like Nikola Jokic for the Nuggets. Denver has been a force on both ends of the floor all season, up until December 30th when Jokic hyperextended his knee, sidelining him for at least four weeks.

If you’ve been following the NBA, you know how crucial the 7-foot Serbian is for the Nuggets, averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11 assists per game—literally a walking triple-double machine.

The Nuggets were already dealing with key injuries, playing without Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cam Johnson. Now, losing their franchise player, you can expect Denver’s offense to slow down, and their interior defense to take a massive hit. They’ll be forced to rely more on Jamal Murray and Jonas Valanciunas, and that’s going to make covering spreads a lot tougher, no matter the opponent.

Going forward, the Nuggets are a team to keep on your radar for opposing teams' rebounding player props, and to fade against the spread. Standing at 18-14 ATS, don’t be surprised if that record slips a bit more in the coming weeks.

Bulls Play Without Josh Giddey

Speaking of star players, the Bulls have joined the bandwagon of missing key talent, with Josh Giddey dealing with a strained hamstring and expected to be out for a few weeks, possibly more.

On paper, Chicago has the veteran talent, scoring depth, and young energy to be a sleeper in the Eastern Conference. But Giddey was by far the engine that kept this team running, helping them win six of their last ten games. With him sidelined, Chicago’s offense is going to grind to a halt without his 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per night.

While the Bulls do have players who can step up to fill the void—Coby White’s scoring, Nikola Vucevic’s rebounding, and solid overall team defense—it’s safe to say this team won’t be the same without their starting point guard.

With that in mind, already sitting at .500 against the spread (16-16), I’m anticipating the Bulls’ defense and rebounding to take a huge hit. They’re going to struggle even more than they already have.

Bank Rockets ATS in Nonconference Games

On the flip side of struggling teams, it's been the Rockets who’ve continued to make a statement when covering spreads, emerging as arguably the top team in the West, besides the Spurs, in recent games—now 20-10 on the season.

While the Eastern Conference does present some solid matchups, one thing's been clear—the Rockets know how to handle teams from the East, and the stats back it up.

On top of winning their last six games against teams in the East, they’re now 7-3 ATS in non-conference matchups, and that number is only going to get better. With several teams in the East below .500, and Houston rolling with a near healthy roster while dominating the boards (leading the league with 48.8 rebounds per game), I’m expecting the Rockets to keep making statements against Eastern teams and continue their winning streak. Definitely an ATS team to put an asterisk next to.

Fade the Knicks on the Road

On the topic of covering spreads, the Knicks are no slouch, now 13-4 ATS when playing in Madison Square Garden. But on the road? That’s a completely different New York team, and no, I’m not talking about the Nets.

When the Orange and Blue play away from home, everything changes—and not in a good way. Their offense drops from 123 points a game to 118, their defense gives up more points, and to top it off, covering spreads is a mess. They’re now 3-11 on the road.

Is this a playoff team? Absolutely. Is this an Eastern Conference Finals contender? Yeah, for sure. But are they a team to bank on when playing on the road? No shot. Time and time again, the Knicks choke outside of MSG. With nothing changing in their lineup and for how stagnant their offense is on the road, you can bank on the Knicks being an easy fade against the spread for the near future.

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