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NBA Finals Betting Trends Analysis and Expert Handicapping

by Jeremy Block - 6/5/2026

NBA finals betting trends Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is already in the books. And with six games or less left in the basketball season, there is not much time left to make some. If you took an “L” last game, no need for a headache before tip-off—I am back with my final NBA trends to watch for the season.

Both the Knicks and Spurs come with offenses that can create space in a phone booth and defenses that can hold the fort when it matters most, which does not make Vegas any easier to crack. So let's skip the small talk and get right into my betting cheat sheet for the Finals.

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Back New York ATS

My first pick might have you doing a double take. However, before you start arguing, hear me out. If there is one team in the NBA that has been reliable against the spread regardless of injuries, road stretches, or cold shooting nights, it is the Knicks. 

New York is riding 11 straight covers and is now 12-3 against the spread this postseason. With Vegas still posting them as a 6.5-point underdog tonight, this is too good to pass up.

So why is New York over San Antonio the better option, beyond the numbers? For starters, the Knicks have the best perimeter defense of any playoff team since the first round, holding opponents to just 30% from three. They showed exactly that in Game 1, limiting the Spurs to 31% from deep and forcing them into uncomfortable shots. 

Factor in an offense that has more weapons than San Antonio, where most possessions run through Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle. Between Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges, there are four legitimate stars before even getting Miles McBride and Landry Shamet coming off the bench.

Look, this is coming from a Nets fan, but the Knicks have the complete package to keep covering, favorite or underdog, and the numbers back it up. Line your pockets up with New York.

Double Down on the Under

Adding to my NBA trends to watch for this series, keep a close eye on the over/under line. Vegas has had a habit of posting totals that feel low when these two teams are involved, which gets bettors thinking they are in for an offensive explosion. More often than not, it turns into an implosion with their money going right down the drain. Nothing changes here. Take the under.

Yes, Game 1 was an ugly shooting night for both sides, but do not mistake that for a fluke. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league this season, and they proved it from tip-off. The Spurs had their moments shutting down the Knicks offense, forcing bad passes and contested shots late in the shot clock. New York returned the favor in the fourth, putting San Antonio in a complete offensive bind when it mattered most.

On top of that, both teams play aggressive, on-ball defense and look to create turnovers, while also valuing every offensive possession and running their sets. That combination slows the game down and keeps the scoring in check. 

Game 1 did not even crack 201 points, and that was with some questionable defensive matchups on Brunson that he took full advantage of. With defensive adjustments expected to happen for Game 2 and on, bettors can bank on fewer mismatches and fewer points. Do I need to say more? Take the under and watch these defenses go to work.

Fade De’Aaron Fox Triples

To wrap up my NBA betting trends for the season, we are spicing things up with a player prop to sweeten the deal for the Finals. The one that stands out most and deserves to be at the top of your list is De'Aaron Fox under on made threes.

Here is the thing: San Antonio can shoot the ball as a team, and they proved it in Game 1 with help of Wembanyama, Castle, Keldon Johnson, and Julian Champagnie, who torched the Knicks for five triples. But Fox? That is a completely different story. 

He is shooting just 5-of-26 from distance this postseason and has yet to hit two  made threes in four matchups against the Knicks this season. The sample size is right there.

Fox's game is inside the arc. Pick and roll, alley-oop to Wembanyama, midrange fadeaway, attacking downhill. When the drive does not open up, he is not pulling up from deep as a backup option. It is just not his bread and butter, and it is not changing in the Finals. 

New York's defense will continue putting players in uncomfortable spots, Fox will keep taking the occasional 3-pointer, and they will keep clanking. The odds, the lines, and the stats all say the same thing. The money is already sitting on the table. All you have to do is grab it. Fade Fox from 3-point land and do not look back.

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