NBA Finals Series Predictions: New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 6/1/2026

The NBA Finals are days away from getting underway, as the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs prepare to lock horns. The Knicks are searching for their first championship since 1973 as they attempt to snap one of the longest title droughts in professional sports.

Jalen Brunson has been remarkable for New York, while a well-rounded starting five and a deep bench allowed them to cruise to 11 consecutive victories. They are brimming with confidence after back-to-back sweeps and will be fully rested heading into the Finals.

Across the court stands Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. Wembanyama leads a young and talented Spurs side, as the towering Frenchman looks to become the second youngest NBA Finals MVP of all-time. Two massive fanbases looking to usher in the next generation of NBA superstars will make for can’t-miss basketball, so let’s dive right into the series breakdown and best bets.

San Antonio Spurs:
The San Antonio Spurs have gone 12-6 in the playoffs so far, overcoming adversity to win the Western Conference. They took down the Trail Blazers in five games, then defeated the Timberwolves in six to set up a Western Conference Final against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s OKC Thunder. They needed seven games to take down the reigning champions, but did so, reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 12 years.

The Spurs were top five in both offensive and defensive rating in the regular season, and will have home court advantage in their series against the Knicks. Their midseason acquisition of De’Aaron Fox gave their budding young core a leader to lean on, and this team is now built to not only win now but stay competitive for the next decade.

One of the big reasons the Spurs have been so successful is the remarkable play of Victor Wembanyama on both ends of the floor. Starting with the offensive end, arguably the weaker part of Wembanyama’s game, he leads the team in PPG (23.2), rebounds (10.8), and offensive rebounds (2.2), all while shooting 51% from the floor and 37% from behind the arc. His ability to not only dominate in the paint but also stretch the floor with his three-point shooting makes him a crucial piece of the Spurs' offense. He lacks the physicality needed to post down defenders, but his height allows him to still rebound the basketball effectively.

On the defensive end, Wembanyama is even better. His 3.5 blocks per game lead the NBA by a significant margin, allowing him to take home his first DPOY in the regular season. His play has elevated even further in the playoffs, as he is a consistent deterrent from entering the paint. Not only does Wembanyama rack up incredible defensive numbers, but intangible parts of his defensive game could be even more impressive. Opposing players will avoid going into the paint, the most efficient area of the floor, when Wembanyama is on the court. He also rarely needs help down low, allowing the Spurs to stay spread on defense, which takes away open shooters.

While Wembanyama is incredible and will need to be at his best if the Spurs want to win this series, San Antonio is more than a one-man team. Stephon Castle is often overlooked at point guard, but his play on both ends has also been excellent. He is the number two option behind Wembanyama with 19.2 PPG, and leads the team with 6.7 assists. After some early turnover struggles against the Thunder, Castle stepped up and stayed composed, effectively scoring and facilitating for the Spurs. Julian Champagnie is the Spurs' best three-point threat, and his strong play on defense makes him the perfect wing for this roster. Once you add in talented bench players like Dylan Harper and Keldon Johnson, it is no surprise the Spurs have been dominant in a competitive Western Conference this year.

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New York Knicks:
The Knicks are in the middle of a historic win streak, and if they win four more games, the city of New York will explode. They are 12-2 in the playoffs with 11 consecutive wins, and to top it off, both of their losses came by a single point. They have not only won 11 straight games, the third-longest streak in NBA playoff history, but they have been doing so in dominant fashion. Their stunning +23.8 point differential in the last 11 games is the highest over any 11-game span in NBA history, playoffs or regular season. Sweeps against the 76ers and Cavaliers have gotten them to this point, but it all means nothing if they can’t finish the job.

Jalen Brunson has elevated his game when it matters most for New York, shooting 26-for-36 in the fourth quarter over the last 11 games. His ability to drive into the paint and score with his left hand is second-to-none, allowing him to cut to the hoop behind a big Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns and Brunson have developed a truly elite screen-and-roll game, which has allowed them to pour on the points on the offensive end.

Another starter who has stepped up has been OG Anunoby, whose 19.7 PPG is the second most on the team. Anunoby made a name for himself thanks to strong play on the defensive end, but has transformed his offensive game for New York. Unlike previous editions of the New York Knicks, who ran out of steam in the playoffs, head coach Mike Brown has done an excellent job of rotating his starters and leaning on his bench. Miles McBride, Landry Shamet, and Mitchell Robinson have all been instrumental to New York’s success and will continue to be counted on in big spots in the NBA Finals. A deep starting five combined with a reliable bench is hard to stop, especially when Brunson is playing the cutthroat basketball he has been.

On the defensive end, the Knicks are just as good. The price of five first-round picks for Mikal Bridges seems steep for a 14.6 PPG scorer, but he does some of his best work on the defensive end. Josh Hart’s never-ending gas tank has kept him in the starting five, as there is a real belief that this could be the year in New York. Four of their five starters are averaging at least a steal a game, with Brunson’s 0.9 steals per game not far behind. The team has bought into what Brown has been developing, making the Knicks a threat not only on offense but on defense, too. Not only have they won 11 straight, but 10 of those wins came by double digits, and five of them came by 29 or more points. In their three elimination games so far, the Knicks have won by 51, 30, and 37 points. New York has been relentless; they have forced their opponents to quit mid-series and appear deadset on snapping their 53-year drought in dominant fashion.

Series Prediction:
We are in for a treat. Down low, the battle between Wembanyama against both Towns and Robinson could determine this series. Robinson’s broken finger could come into play, but it appears as though he is good to go for Game 1, and will use his physicality to box out Wembanyama. Towns will get a majority of the minutes on Wembanyama, and he is one of the few centers who can handle him both in the open court and in the dirty areas in the paint. Towns has the frame needed to muscle out Wembanyama, but also has the footwork needed to take away open shots from the perimeter. Most centers have one or the other, which Wembanyama will expose, but Towns can do both. His defense is still not the best in the league, but it has improved greatly since coming to New York, and will certainly be tested against San Antonio. Wembanyama still certainly holds the advantage and will have multiple big nights, but the Knicks frontcourt will find ways to slow him down. On the glass, the advantage goes to New York, as even with both Wembanyama and Luke Kornet on the floor, the Spurs will be at a disadvantage. Robinson is the most effective offensive rebounder in the league, and as long as he can hit enough free throws with his broken finger to stay on the court, the Knicks will collect extra possessions in this series.

On the outside, the Spurs don’t have anyone to slow down Brunson. Castle is a strong on-ball defender, but he struggles in the pick-and-roll and will occasionally let his assignment sneak away from him. Brunson doesn’t need much space to knock down big shots, and I simply don’t see the Spurs taking and making enough open looks to offset his offense. If Josh Hart continues to shoot lights out from deep and Miles McBride can stay effective off the bench, the Knicks' perimeter scoring will offset any advantage the Spurs have on the inside.

The game is often split into the frontcourt and the backcourt, but there are two more areas where the Knicks hold an advantage. Their wing players like Anunoby and Bridges will stretch the floor and are much more capable of creating their own offense than Devin Vassell and Champagnie are. That will take some of the pressure off Brunson and Towns to score, while the Spurs don’t have the same luxury if Wembanyama happens to go cold.

Additionally, the New York bench is fresher, having swept each of their last two opponents, while the Spurs had a hard-fought seven-game set against the Thunder. Tired legs become a factor at this stage of the season, and the Knicks have more pep in their step heading into the Finals. As long as they don’t shrivel under the bright Madison Square Garden lights, which they haven’t up until now, the Knicks will win the NBA championship over the San Antonio Spurs.

Series Prediction: New York Knicks in Six Games

Best Bets:

The New York Knicks are coming in as +170 underdogs to lift the NBA title, and that will be our first bet of the series. It is hard to deny the value on the more rested team in the middle of a historic win streak, even if Wembanyama is an impressive center. The Knicks have what it takes to pull off this upset and are a solid pick at these odds.

While the +525 odds on a Knicks win in exactly six games also have value, we will play it a bit safer with the Knicks (+1.5 Games) series handicap at -130 odds. As long as New York defends home court, this one will go to seven games. I find it equally likely that the Knicks will win a road game than the Spurs will, as a young San Antonio side will crumble in the historic Madison Square Garden. The Knicks can win this series outright or fall in seven games to cash this -134 prop.

Finally, we will also take Jalen Brunson to lead the series in points at +155 odds. He has led the series in points against the Hawks, 76ers, and Cavaliers, and we are now getting plus money on him to do so again. Victor Wembanyama is the favorite at -175, but I expect the Knicks to collapse on him early and often to force someone else to beat them. The Knicks’ frontcourt defense is better than the Spurs’ backcourt defense, making this a value pick at +155 odds.

Top Pick: New York Knicks to Win the Series +170

Pick: New York Knicks Series Handicap (+1.5 Games) -130

Pick: Jalen Brunson Most Points in the Series +155

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Start:	June 3, 2026 @ 11:45 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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NBA Finals Series Predictions: New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Best Bets

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