12 NBA Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert NBA Handicappers
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Here are 12 NBA handicapping tips from our team of experts:
DOC'S SPORTS - The NBA totals market is one of the most profitable aspects of NBA handicapping. For evidence of this just compare the opening lines to the closing lines each night in the NBA - the totals numbers always move more drastically then the sides. Most common NBA bettors play sides and don't even mess with totals. Sharp bettors are the people mostly playing totals. We like to follow beat writers for all the NBA teams. We check for new content on the Web sites of local papers, and most NBA beat writers are Twitter maniacs, so there is often the case where a team might try out a different style and pace in the middle of the season. If you can get in front of a trend like that before the general public, it can be very profitable. One example is the Orlando Magic a couple years ago. This was a strong defensive team and a horrible offensive squad for most of the early part of the season. At one point in the season they decided to play at the fastest pace in the NBA and really open the offense up. Of course, their scores skyrocketed, mostly for the opposition as they stopped playing any defense, and those of us that were vigilant reaped the benefits. This experiment in Orlando was short-lived, but this is a perfect example of how keeping up with team news can benefit your bankroll from a profit perspective. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
ROBERT FERRINGO - I have a nickname for NBA betting: Thunderdome. Once you embrace the chaotic and seemingly arbitrary nature of NBA betting you're going to be all the better for it. NBA athletes are some of the most coddled, erratic and egotistical in all of sports. As a result, one of the biggest challenges is guessing who is going to come to play on a given night versus who is hungover after a late-night strip club jaunt. It can be infuriating. But my top two tips are these: first, you can't be a good NBA bettor if you can't sniff out a trap line. If some high-scoring top team from the West is suddenly only a two-point favorite in some pit like Toronto or New Jersey on a random Tuesday in a game you expected the spread to be seven or eight then you need to walk away. This can be true in all sports. But being able to spot a trap line in pro basketball is absolutely crucial. Just because an NBA team "should" win easily doesn't mean that they always will.
ALLEN EASTMAN - I think that one of the most important things for a bettor when it comes to the NBA is to have money in as many different sportsbooks as you can. Shopping around for the best line is crucial in all sports. But in most sports, like the NFL and college football, all the books have pretty standard lines. And if they are different it is only by a half-point here or there. But the NBA is a little different in that the books move their lines at different times during the day. So by having multiple "outs" you can pick up an extra one, two or even three points (on a total) on a wager for that night. Knowing which way the line is going to move is important as well, and that comes from experience. But having the ability to take advantage of the line moves is really what can separate a winning bettor from a losing one over the long term.
RAPHAEL ESPARZA - There is no rest for the weary - not in the NBA. A big trend now occurring in the NBA is that the stars need rest. Teams coming off back-to-back nights or playing three games out of four nights are beginning to rest some starters. Why is that a tip you ask? Take a look at overnight numbers or early-morning numbers because usually teams don't announce players that are out for rest until early afternoon. A great way to find some soft numbers or betting underdogs and totals is waiting for the announcement of rested starters. While waiting, you can also find some outstanding 'middle' opportunities if teams decide to rest their starters. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
STRIKE POINT SPORTS -The NBA is such a fickle sport as it can become a long and tedious adventure for teams that know that each and every game is truly not that significant. There are however, a few things that bettors want to keep an eye on, as teams going on lengthy ATS winning streaks and the random East Coast/West Coast matchups. In the NBA, each and every season, teams go on double-digit ATS winning streaks, and typically they cover each and every one of those games quite easily. Watching NBA games as much as you can is truly important in this field. You cannot win in this sport if you just bet on the teams and track them on your phone. Watch teams as much as you can, and you will have a much better idea of which teams are playing at high levels and which ones are about to go on that huge romp through the league. The NBA is a grind, and it is an absolute endurance race. Don't get too down if you lose a sprint or two as the value is outlasting the season, and we here at SPS are one of the best in the nation at doing just that.
INDIAN COWBOY - We want to focus and share one main theory that we use in handicapping the NBA. It is called the "active underdog over theory". The active underdog theory is essentially taking an underdog that you believe will be an active underdog (either due to revenge against a team from an earlier season loss, coming off a double-digit loss, losing outright to a team they were heavily favored against, etc.) and taking the 'over' with this team. So you expect a team that is looking to exceed expectations over the line currently constructed for them. So anytime that you think a team that is an underdog is going to exceed expectations against a team then take the 'over'. This is because if the underdog is highly motivated as we discussed for revenge, coming off a double-digit loss, or losing outright to a team they were favored straight up against, then certainly they will be motivated to exceed the amount of points they are expected to score in their next game. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
Scott Spreitzer - There's nothing better than knowing you're about to sit down and handicap the next day's action, knowing that with your system, player matchups almost don't even matter. That's the case with the NBA. Pro basketball is about as situational as it gets for me, and I'd like to share one such situation. Are you at your very best the day after arriving home from a 10-day or more journey? Probably not. And most NBA players aren't either. Players off a lengthy road trip have distractions upon arriving at home, from unpacking to dealing with family, among other things. We never play on teams off a lengthy road-trip and often play against those teams. It's one of a few working situations with a long track record you may want to jot down and factor into your daily NBA handicapping.
TONY GEORGE - The NBA can be frustrating when laying a sizable number with a good team versus a bad team. You clearly know that Team A is better than Team B in numerous areas, including the man-to-man matchups and talent level, yet they fail to cover a large spread by a point or two. One way I have been able to capture wins against the spread is first-half lines in this scenario. You always have to worry about a team, like recently Golden State as an example, becoming complacent in the second half with a big lead or resting starters, thus blowing a big lead late and the lesser team getting the backdoor cover on a big number. To take this issue out of the equation, first half lines are usually 50 percent of what the total spread is, and many times a team will come out sharp and ready to play and the first half line in this scenario is more easy to cover versus the whole game spread. In other words, laying 5 points on the halftime line is easier and less stressful than worrying about a 10- or 11-point whole game spread with other variables to worry about.
JASON SHARPE - I try to keep my focus on games with a spread of +2.5 to -2.5. There's no worse feeling than having a team you felt would win a game walking off the court smiling and happy for getting the win but it's a loser for you as they didn't win by enough points. I decided that I wanted to try and make sure that if my team did win the game then most likely my bet was also a winner, too. So now the only way that my team can win and I still lose my bet are those rare times when I have exactly a -2 point favorite that wins by just 1 point. Not only did this strategy change my entire mindset with betting on the NBA but it also took away most of my late-game stress also. I don't spend time now trying to figure out if a team I like is going to do enough to win by eight points or more because at that point there's way too much luck involved with my bet. Those days are more or less gone now as I get the feeling my team is playing the guys I expect right down to the last shot if their/my outcome is still in doubt.
DOUG UPSTONE - One of the most important aspects of handicapping and betting the NBA is scheduling. The league has started the season sooner to help lower the number of three games in four days, but they still occur. This does make any team in these situations an automatic play against – but it’s something you have to check for on that team and ATS line of that third contest each time. Another prime scheduling spot is teams’ off a two- or three-game road trip, which is not too taxing, but they have to play at home the night after being away. Most players would like to chill a bit or are married and often with children and they have to dive back into their “real lives” and responsibilities and might not be focused for a home tilt. This can be even more a factor to bet against that club for first half wager. Sign up for the package of your choice with Doug.
ALAN HARRIS - Look for tough spots for teams in their schedules. There are three major scheduling spots that we like to look at when placing NBA wagers. The first is a team playing back-to-back nights on the road, especially if they were listed as the favorite in both games. There is usually a let down in the second game as the team that has played the night before is tired and the home team underdog usually likes to give a good effort in front of their home fans. The second spot is to look for teams that are playing their fourth game in five nights. There are tons of times in that fourth game where you can pull a money line dog winner out of your hat because the team that was favored in the game is drained from their previous stretch of games. The last one is to look to play against a team in their first game home from a long road trip. This is a spot that has been very successful for us in the past as it's tough for a player to come home from 10 or so days on the road and focus on a home game. They get home from the long road trip and have family things and what not to deal with since they haven't been home in a while, and this can sometimes cause a big distraction for the home team.
VERNON CROY - The NBA is a different breed from college basketball betting because players in the NBA do take nights off. It is inevitable although they will deny it, but it does happen. Try to find good teams coming off an emotional road win where the odds in their next game make you think it is a lock and then bet against that team. An example of this would be when a good team like the Atlanta Hawks just beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road then returned home to play the lowly Philadelphia 76ers. However, the Hawks are only favored by four points over the 76ers, which seems like a lock. I find games like this every week where the lines looks off and then I dive into the game deeper to make sure the upset is highly probable. You can do the same is you have the time.
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