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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/5/2026 vs. Toronto Raptors

by Spencer Toth - 1/5/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Toronto Raptors Collin Murray-Boyles

Doc’s Sports will be bringing you free best bets for every weekday Atlanta Hawks game this season. While we won’t always favor the Hawks, by carefully analyzing each matchup, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season. 

On Friday night, the Hawks beat the Knicks 111-99, taking advantage of New York’s injuries to prevail. Trae Young was unable to suit up, but the Hawks' electric defense stifled New York and allowed them to pull away on the scoreboard. The Knicks went 9/42 from behind the arc as they were forced to take contested threes late in the shot clock. All five Hawks starters scored 10+ points, with an 18-point triple-double from Jalen Johnson leading the way for Atlanta. 

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From a betting perspective, we went 0-2 with a void but got unlucky with a late scratch to Karl-Anthony Towns. We targeted the matchup between Towns and Porzingis down low, taking Towns to score over 21.5 points, and Porzingis to drain over 1.5 threes. The Towns bet was voided, while Porzingis stayed in the paint and didn’t hit a single triple. Our third bet was on the Knicks (-6), which fell way short. 

On Saturday night, the Hawks had their two-game win streak snapped with a defeat to the Raptors. It was a blistering first half with a 77-70 advantage for Toronto at halftime, before the Hawks' offense got cold in the fourth quarter. Toronto outscored Atlanta 27-11 in the fourth, pulling away for a 134-117 victory. Toronto was missing Jakob Poeltl down low, but the Hawks were unable to take advantage with a disappointing 3/4/4 statline from Onyeka Okongwu. Atlanta was dominated on the glass, and they had no answer for RJ Barrett in the open court, as the Canadian scored a game-high 29 points. 

Tonight, the Hawks (17-20) take on the Raptors (21-15) for the second time in three nights, as they search for revenge for their Saturday night defeat. To address the elephant in the room, Trae Young has missed three straight games, and it will be a fourth straight absence tonight as he continues to deal with a right quad contusion. Are the Hawks holding him out as they search for a trade partner, and are they even better with Young on the court? Neither of those questions matter as the Hawks need to start picking up wins if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. End of story. 

Toronto is the type of team Atlanta could turn into in the near future if Young does depart the Peach State. The Raptors have plenty of intensity on defense; they like to run their offense through physical and talented forwards, while surrounding them with hard-nosed, efficient shooters. The Hawks have their cornerstone in Jalen Johnson to build around, they have the pesky Dyson Daniels on the outside, and will now try to beat Toronto at their own game with Young still on the sidelines. 

This game will be won or lost in the paint. Toronto is still without Poeltl, their only legitimate center, as they have been forced to use rookie Collin Murray-Boyles down low, with the undersized Sandro Mamukelashvili filling in at center. This gives physical players like Okongwu and Porzingis a real chance to shine, as the Hawks cannot afford to get outhustled on the glass as they did on Saturday night. It is never a good sign to see Dyson Daniels leading the way in the rebounding department, as the Hawks lost that game thanks to a minus-12 rebounding differential against the 20th-best rebounding team in the league. The Raptors will not be outhustled in the open court, making the Hawks' down-low play essential to their success. 

This really feels like a make-or-break time of the year for Atlanta. They are still reeling from their recent seven-game losing skid, they are about to head on a West Coast road trip, and four of their next five games are against teams with a winning record. The wide-open nature of the Eastern Conference means this team still has some life, but they are just half a game ahead of the 11th-place Bucks for the final play-in tournament position. On the flip side, the Hawks are only seven games back of the second-place Knicks, but with the season rapidly approaching the halfway mark, time is running out to dash up the standings. 

I will be in attendance for this one, and I have to say, I don’t know how the Hawks pull off the win. Toronto doesn’t have the pure, physical center to dominate down low, but frankly, neither do the Hawks. Both teams rely on gang-rebounding to find success, but the Raptors have an edge in that category with Barnes, Barrett, and Ingram able to overpower Johnson, Risacher, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Hawks' biggest weapon on the defensive end is Dyson Daniels, as he is capable of shutting down the opposition’s best guard. However, Immanuel Quickley is the fourth option on the Raptors, as Toronto elects to drive into the arc more often than not. Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett are all poised for big games, and the Hawks simply don’t have the scoring to keep up with Young out again. The spread is a very modest -3 in favor of Toronto, implying a minimal point spread if this game were played on a neutral court. The Hawks still have several problems to address before they can be labeled as contenders, while the Raptors are legitimate threats in the Eastern Conference. With a short spread, Toronto is the only option. 

In the player prop department, there are a few ways we can attack this matchup. First, we will take Brandon Ingram to score 25+ points at +120 odds. His point total is at 23.5 points, so we will get greedy and take the 25+ at the plus money odds. Ingram has scored 25+ in four of his last five games, and the Hawks don’t have the shutdown defenders needed to slow him down tonight. I am sure Atlanta will prioritize defense after allowing 134 two nights ago, but this low total makes Ingram an easy over. 

For the second bet of the night, we will ladder Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s threes. He has drained at least 3 threes in five straight games, averaging 4.7 makes in that span. He has -170 odds for 3+, +145 for 4+, and +320 for 5+ tonight. The Raptors give up plenty of deep balls, and we are getting a discount after Toronto had an unusually strong night with their three-point defense on Saturday. The Raptors will need to focus on getting stops down low, and Alexander-Walker won’t need a second invitation to jack it up from behind the arc. 

Pick: Toronto Raptors (-3) 5 Units

Pick: Brandon Ingram 25+ Points 3 Units

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 3+ Threes -170 3 Units

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 4+ Threes +145 1 Unit

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 5+ Threes +320 1 Unit

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 6-4

Spread: 14-12

Total: 1-6

Player Props: 22-11

Overall: 44-33

Total Units: Up 22.8 Units  

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