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NBA Betting Impact of Kawhi Leonard and LA Clippers Cheating Scandal

by Spencer Toth - 9/3/2026

Betting Impact of Kawhi Leonard cheating scandal

The NBA has reached a verdict on the Kawhi Leonard and Los Angeles Clippers scandal, and it is bad news for Los Angeles. Clippers owner Steve Ballmer was found to have violated the salary-cap circumvention rules and has been suspended from all basketball activities for one year. The team was also fined $30 million; Leonard himself was fined $700,000, while Lawrence Frank and Gillian Zucker were suspended for six months and one year, respectively. Dennis Robertson, Leonard’s uncle, was handed a five-year ban for his involvement in the deal. Not only that, but Ballmer’s franchise will fork over five first-round picks from 2029 through to 2033. This will not only set the franchise back for the upcoming 2026-27 season but will likely cripple their long-term rebuilding flexibility for the foreseeable future. 

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What about the Kawhi Leonard trade? 

The Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Clippers agreed to a deal that sent Leonard back to Toronto in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, a pair of first-round picks, a pair of second-round picks, and a 2027 pick swap. The trade has not yet been officially cleared, but everything points to this deal going through. In the wake of the league’s ruling and the subsequent punishments, we can take advantage of NBA futures. The trade vaults Toronto into contention while hitting the reset button for the Clippers, and the odds have reflected that fact. Here is how the trade impacts both teams and their respective betting markets. 

NBA Betting Impact For the Clippers… 

Los Angeles made a crafty deal to trade away an aging star for two NBA-caliber players and four draft picks and a first-round pick swap. This should have set the team up to contend for the next several seasons. However, instead, the future is murky. The market has the Clippers at -650 odds to miss the playoffs, +500 odds to make the playoffs, and much longer odds for a deep postseason run. Their win total is set at 29.5, the second lowest in the Western Conference. 

While this trade will obviously impact the Clippers' future, there are arguments to be made that now is the time to make a push up the standings. The Western Conference is stacked, but the reality is that the Clippers will struggle to attract talent over the next several seasons with their future draft picks stripped, while still having a competent roster this year. There are worse veteran cores than Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram, and Brook Lopez, and the Clippers have a surprisingly deep bench with Bradley Beal, Max Strus, and Rui Hachimura all projected to miss out on a starting role. Garland has already proven he is capable of facilitating a coherent offense, Ingram can make shots in the clutch, and a wealth of role players means Los Angeles only needs one or two players to step up to suddenly be in contention. 

Looking at the betting market, it is hard to come to any conclusion other than that this is the perfect time to ‘buy the dip.’ The public has overreacted to the news and assumes the Clippers will be bad right now, but the draft pick penalties don’t kick in for another few seasons. I wouldn’t be running to the window to lock in a bet on the Clippers to win the 2032 championship, but this is still a legitimate roster with no reason to tank. We can secure +500 odds on the Clippers to make the playoffs or take a discounted price of +270 to make the play-in tournament. Both picks have value, and there is no need to overreact to the recent verdict. Once the public realizes that the Clippers aren’t that bad right now, this price may not be around for long. 

NBA Betting Impact For the Raptors…

Toronto got their man. Kawhi Leonard had one magical season in 2019 that ended with the Raptors' first championship but left the franchise feeling burned after departing for Los Angeles. That doesn’t change how excited Toronto should be about this acquisition. The front office has already made it clear that they are on the same page about extending Leonard so he retires a Raptor, paving the way for a title charge. 

Toronto was bounced in the first round of the playoffs last year in seven games by the Cavaliers, but there is a real reason for optimism heading into the new season. Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles have developed into a stout frontcourt defensively, and adding in two-time DPOY Leonard will only raise their ceiling. Once you add R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to round out the starting five, the optimism is justified in Toronto. 

The glaring problem with the Raptors this year is availability. Leonard isn’t getting any younger at 35 years old and has dealt with countless injury problems throughout his career. We all saw what can happen if he can stay healthy, but that is far from a guarantee at this stage, or any stage of his career. The Raptors also dealt with injuries up and down their roster last year, as Barrett, Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, and Murray-Boyles all missed at least 12 games in 2025-26. It looked as though the team was capable of making a deep playoff run without Leonard, and they now have the championship window wide open heading into the new season. 

In terms of the betting market, the oddsmakers have Toronto as the sixth-best team in the conference with -275 odds to make the playoffs. We saw Toronto emerge from their rebuild with an excellent roster last year, and there is now no disputing their contender status. They have a win total of 46.5 games with +2200 odds to win the NBA championship. 

This season can go one of two ways for the Raptors. If Leonard and the rest of the roster stay healthy, they will be among the top five in defensive rating and could secure a top seed in the East. However, if Leonard and/or one of their other starters goes down, making the playoffs is suddenly no longer a guarantee. When looking for value on a ‘boom or bust’ team, a fearless approach is the way to go. Toronto to miss the playoffs at +220 is tempting given the injury risk, but I would rather embrace the upside on an NBA championship, or at the very least, a Finals appearance. The Raptors have a winning combination on both ends of the floor, so sprinkling on them winning the championship at +2200 and winning the East at +850 has no shortage of value. Whether or not Leonard deserved to walk away scot-free is irrelevant, as he undoubtedly vaults the Raptors among the elites in the East. 

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