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Will New NBA Anti-Tanking Measures Make Betting Big Underdogs More Attractive in 2026?

by Spencer Toth - 9/11/2026

New NBA tanking rules Lauri Markkanen Utah Jazz

The NBA has had a tanking issue for the last several seasons and has resorted to drastic measures to put an end to intentionally losing heading into the 2026-27 season. It still remains to be seen whether or not this will be the final solution to meaningless late-season basketball, but it is certainly a step in the right direction. 

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NBA Tanking is About to Look Very Different

A growing trend over the last several seasons is that teams that were clearly out of contention would attempt to lose games in order to protect their draft capital. Each additional win could mean a lower draft pick in the upcoming draft, and there were no meaningful benefits to finish 35-47 rather than 25-57. The players on the court would be giving it their all with their respective careers on the line, but stars on struggling teams would all suddenly get hurt with a month left in the season, while coaches would routinely pull the starters late in close games. It didn’t take a sharp eye to see that winning was no longer the priority, and that resulted in uncompetitive matchups for non-playoff teams.
What has changed?
Instead of the worst team getting the best lottery odds, with the better teams getting slightly lower chances at first pick, the bottom-three in the NBA will be punished for their poor standing. Similar to a relegation zone in European soccer, the three teams with the worst records will actually have a lower chance at a top draft pick than teams higher up the standings. The bottom-three get two lottery balls, the rest of the non-play-in tournament teams get three balls, while the play-in losers get one or two balls. Each ball is worth a 2.7% chance at the first overall pick, giving last place a 5.4% chance at first pick, down from 14%, while a team that just misses out on the play-in tournament has an 8.1% chance at top pick, up from 3.8%. This means that there is no increased chance at first pick by finishing fourth-last rather than tenth-last, and teams should theoretically be trying harder to win even if their playoff hopes have evaporated. That change in incentives could have a major impact on one of the most troubling NBA trends: enormous point spreads. 

How Big Would Spreads Get?

Four years ago, the largest closing spread was 19.5, with only five instances of a spread of more than 18 points. Flash forward to the 2025-26 season, and there were 25 games with a spread of 18.5 or larger, with seven of those games featuring a spread of 20 or more points. It used to be that a 15 point spread was a rare occurrence reserved for only matchups between the top and bottom teams in the league, but it has now become a nightly occurrence late in the season. This meant fewer competitive games, and less excitement for fans of both the elite and struggling franchises.
In the games with a spread of 18.5 or more points, the underdog went a positive 14-11 against the spread but failed to log a single outright upset. The year before, the big underdogs went 3-5 against the spread without an upset, and 2-2 against the spread in 2023-2024. We have to go all the way back to April 2nd, 2023 to see the last major upset when the Trail Blazers shocked the Timberwolves with a 107-105 victory as a 19.5 point underdog, the largest spread of the season. If the possibility of an upset becomes this unlikely, how are struggling teams expected to sell tickets to see an all-but-guaranteed loss? 

How Will This Affect Betting?

In previous seasons, it was common to see 10- 15-, or even 20-point spreads late in the season. While no one is arguing that the Utah Jazz will suddenly be favored over the Oklahoma City Thunder, these anti-tanking rules should reduce the number of games that get out of hand. A struggling Jazz side may not be able to beat the Thunder, but if their stars are suiting up trying to avoid the ‘relegation zone’, Utah may be able to hang around longer with the mighty Thunder. 

From a betting standpoint, there could be value on big underdogs late in the season. Rather than the Jazz automatically getting blown out, and the Thunder covering even a mighty 20-point spread, a more competitive game could make those numbers more attractive. They have been staying afloat in terms of against the spread numbers but could now turn into real moneymakers going forward. The public almost always leans towards laying the points with the favorite rather than taking the free points on the underdog, which will keep these spreads inflated late in the season.

However, a healthy and available Jazz side going up against a contender will still be capable of pulling off the upset if things go their way. The recent memories of bottom-feeders getting demolished by average NBA teams will still be fresh in people’s minds, and this is something we can pounce on. If the market doesn’t react accordingly, we just may be cheering for tanking teams avoiding the relegation zone in Game 82. 

As former NBA bench player Brian Scalabrine once said, “I am closer to LeBron than you are to me.” A team full of motivated professionals given the chance to excel will pull off upsets, or at the very least, keep games close.  

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