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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 11/12/2026

by Spencer Toth - 11/12/2026

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Giannis Antetokounmpo Miami Heat

Just like that, the NBA regular season is already 13% complete. It has been an eventful start to the year as each team has played about a dozen games, and trends are starting to emerge both against the spread and with the totals. Some teams have gotten off to surprisingly hot starts, while others have fallen short of the number to start the season. Taking a look at which teams have been hot and cold against the spread in addition to who is consistently going over or under their totals can be valuable when making future picks. Here are the teams to keep an eye on after surprising starts, both good and bad. 

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The Hot:

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves have started the year off 8-3 straight up and an even more impressive 10-1 against the spread. They started the year without Donte DiVincenzo due to injury, and subsequently lost leading scorer Anthony Edwards after four regular season games. However, that hasn’t slowed down the Timberwolves, as their stout defense, combined with a balanced offense, has allowed them to keep winning and covering. Losing Edwards has shifted the Timberwolves down the power rankings for the bookmakers, as they have been underdogs in five of their 11 games this year. They went 3-2 straight up and a perfect 5-0 against the spread in those games, with their loss to the Warriors as 3.5-point favorites being their only against the spread blemish this season. Looking forward, Minnesota has proven they can still win games without Edwards, making this a trend that may continue if they remain undervalued. 

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have gone 8-3 both straight up and against the spread this season, covering in all their wins while falling short in their defeats. The Rockets have an excellent defense anchored by Amen Thompson, and the real surprise this year has been how their offense has looked. Fred VanVleet is back at point guard for the Rockets, which has allowed their other stars to settle into more comfortable positions on that end of the floor. While the Rockets look good on both ends, their trend of covering in every victory will eventually come to an end. They have been favored in 10 of 11 games this season, and have very winnable matchups against the Jazz, Wizards, Pacers, Clippers, and Suns in their next seven games. The spreads will keep climbing until the Rockets cool off, making it a potentially good time to sell high on Houston. 

The Cold:

Utah Jazz

There were actually some expectations that the Utah Jazz were going to be competitive this year with a 35.5 preseason win total, but that has gone out the window. They have gone 1-11 straight up and 2-10 against the spread this year, and most of their defeats haven’t been close. They have been at least 6.5-point underdogs in seven of their 12 games this year, and their only outright upset came as slight favorites against the Pelicans. They are second last in offensive rating and sixth-last in defensive rating this season, and while injuries are a factor, they haven’t even been coming close. Utah has several matchups coming up where they will undoubtedly be massive underdogs, and maybe once the spreads start reaching 15+ points, they can occasionally cover. 

Miami Heat

Has there been a bigger letdown this year? The Heat were expected to be an Eastern Conference contender this year, but that has not been the case. They are 5-6 straight up but just 2-9 against the spread to start the season, with only one win by more than 12 points this year. Over the last two weeks, they narrowly scraped by the Jazz, Kings, and Clippers by a combined 13 points, all of which resulted in wins but not covers. The Heat swung big for Giannis Antetokounmpo in the offseason, but appear to have given up too much depth to pull away against bad teams. Antetokounmpo will keep these spreads inflated, making it a good idea to stay as far away from the Heat as possible for the time being. 
The Overs:

Los Angeles Lakers

Luka Doncic has leapfrogged the competition to become the early favorite for MVP, and his scoring outburst is a big reason why the Lakers have been flying over totals. Los Angeles has gone 9-4 to the over this season and sit atop of the Western Conference with an 11-2 record. Doncic is averaging 35.9 PPG, which would be the second-highest average since Michael Jordan. Not only that, but the Lakers also play at the fastest pace, with the most PPG, and the most efficient offense in the league. However, Los Angeles has still yet to see a total close in the 240s this season, and even saw a 216.5 point total against the Pistons last week, which they flew over. Scoring as a whole is down this year in the NBA, but until the oddsmakers start getting aggressive with the Lakers totals, or Doncic slows down, Los Angeles will keep being an Over machine for the time being. 

New Orleans Pelicans

The Lakers are here thanks to their strong offense, while the Pelicans are here thanks to their dreadful defense. New Orleans has gone 8-4 to the over this season, allowing 134 or more points on five different occasions this season. They aren’t getting back in transition, they are giving up countless wide-open threes, and the fact they allowed 145 points to the Nets last night should tell you all you need to know about where this team sits. The oddsmakers expect the Pelicans to turn things around on defense, as they have had three straight totals in the 220s after their first nine games of the year were all 230 or higher. If their closing lines stay lower than the league average, there is no reason to expect this trend to stop anytime soon. 
The Unders:

Washington Wizards

This was supposed to be the year the Wizards put it all together with Trae Young and Anthony Davis leading a young core, but things have not gone to plan to kick off the season. Their offense is in the bottom-five in the league, and they have gone over the total just four times in their first 12 games this year. Washington has now lost five straight games with a mere 104.8 PPG scored in that span, just as A.J. Dybantsa made his Wizards debut. With their next four games coming against the Rockets, Pistons, Grizzlies, and Raptors, four of the best defensive teams in the league, the Wizards staying under the total may be the way to go if their lines stay in the 220s. 

New York Knicks

This is a common trend among reigning NBA champions. The Knicks have gone just 3-8 to the total so far this season, as the public expects the champions to produce fast-paced, high scoring basketball. The Knicks won the title thanks to strong play on the defensive end, and they are once again flexing those muscles to start the year. They have only allowed more than 115 points once this season, while keeping their opponents in double digits on five occasions. Not only are the Knicks staying under the posted total, but they have remarkably not come within 10 points of the line in any of the eight games they stayed under the total. New York is playing the slowest basketball in the league by taking away nearly all points in transition, and their half-court defense is incredibly hard to break down. Casual fans want to take the over with the Knicks, making the under a potential cash cow all season long. 

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