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NBA Betting: Houston Rockets Season Long Handicapping 11/9/2026 vs Denver Nuggets

by Spencer Toth - 11/9/2026

NBA betting Houston Rockets season long handicapping vs Denver Nuggets Amen Thompson

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Houston Rockets weekday matchup while providing best bets along the way. We won’t always turn a profit, but by analyzing soft lines with potential matchups, we can finish in the green by the season’s end. We went up 69.3 units last year, and while we are slightly negative to kick off the new season, I am eager to get back on track.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Previous Games Betting Recap

On Wednesday night, the Houston Rockets lost their second game of the season with a 117-107 defeat at the hands of the Timberwolves. The Rockets led for most of the contest before collapsing late in the fourth to hand Minnesota the victory. Alperen Sengun was the spark on the offensive end with a 17-point triple double, the 13th of his career, while Fred VanVleet’s late-game heroics weren’t enough to get the Rockets over the line. All five starters hit double digits in scoring for the Rockets, but the Timberwolves were more aggressive on the glass, turned the ball over fewer times, and shot 53% from the field and 43% from deep. The Rockets defense was unable to slow down LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu, both of whom had 20+ points with a double digit plus/minus. 

From a betting perspective, we had a negative night. We correctly took Tari Eason to stay under 1.5 three-pointers, but fell short on both Sengun’s threes and the overall under. We secured plus money odds for Sengun to hit at least one triple, but he went 0-for-1 and turned down countless open looks with Gobert in drop coverage. The total also leaked over by 3.5 points in the dying seconds, as the Timberwolves got hot down the stretch. 

On Saturday night, the Rockets dropped their second straight game with a 102-99 defeat against the Phoenix Suns. Devin Booker scored a game-high 24 points, but the Rockets defense still did a solid job of slowing down the Suns. However, Houston’s 38% clip from the floor and 29% clip from deep made it impossible for them to prevail. Cold shooting nights will happen along the way this year, and while it is never good to lose, the Rockets stuck to their gameplan and will end up beating the Suns more often than not if they play like that again. 

Rockets vs Nuggets Preview

Tonight, the Houston Rockets (7-3) host the Denver Nuggets (5-3) as they look to snap their first losing streak of the season. Denver is coming off a victory over the Indiana Pacers in Mexico City on Saturday, but things did not go to plan on the way home. They boarded their flight on Saturday night at about 9:00pm, but due to a plane door malfunction, they sat on the tarmac all night and were sent back to their hotel early Sunday morning. They eventually got on a replacement flight back to the United States Sunday afternoon, arriving in Houston less than 24 hours before this game tips off. As a result, the Nuggets canceled their shootaround this morning, and have listed their entire rotation as questionable heading into this one. This has been reported as a precautionary measure which means most of their roster should be good to go, but it would not be surprising to see at least one starter sit this one out.

The Denver Nuggets have tried to deepen their roster around Nikola Jokic in recent seasons, but the reality is that they will go as far as their three-time MVP can take them. Jokic is having a ‘bad start to the year’ according to the national media, with his 23 PPG, 10.1 rebounds, and 9.1 assists all being lower than each of his last two seasons. However, an eight-game sample size is not very significant and Jokic is still one of the most dominant players in the league. He is the heart and soul of this Denver offense, has put this team on his back time and time again, and as long as he plays, Denver will have a real shot at pulling off this upset. 

The Rockets surged to the top of the Western Conference standings with seven wins in their first eight games, and need to get back on track after dropping two straight. This is a real opportunity to pick up a valuable win against a fatigued Nuggets side that has had a very eventful last 48 hours. Denver is usually one of the toughest opponents to beat with four straight top-four finishes in the West, but the circumstances tilt the court in favor of the Rockets, something they need to take advantage of. 

One matchup the Rockets will look to expose is the Nuggets struggling interior defense. Jokic can collect rebounds, but he isn’t getting help on the glass from his other big men, and is far from a dominant shot blocker in the paint. Sengun has been given the nickname ‘Baby Jokic’ in the past thanks to his heads-up passing and ability to score from anywhere on the court, and he will be looking to get back on track in this matchup after a poor showing on Saturday. Jokic will not deter Sengun from getting down to business in the paint, and with Jabari Smith Jr. also showing signs of life, the Rockets will have a real advantage on the inside on offense. Look for Houston to rack up paint points and offensive rebounds rather than relying on their three-point shooting to swat aside the Nuggets. 

Rockets vs Nuggets Best Bets

There are a few different ways we can attack this matchup. The Rockets are hefty 8.5-point favorites at home against Denver with the assumption at least one of their starters will end up sitting after their Mexico City debacle. There are too many unknowns to attack the spread or total directly, so we will instead look for player props in this one.
For the first pick, we will take Smith Jr. to get on the scoresheet with +100 odds available on over 15.5 points. He has scored at least 14 points in eight of his ten appearances this season, and this is the perfect matchup for him to get a few more and cash this total. He has already done so in three of his five home games, and the Nuggets have allowed the fifth-most points to power forwards this season. Smith Jr. will be matched up against Aaron Gordon for the most part, but I expect him to rotate onto Jokic whenever possible and get down and dirty with Sengun in the paint. A few easy putbacks combined with at least one triple will get Smith Jr. most of the way there, and he is developing into a capable scorer who can take advantage of this soft line. 

For the second pick, we will take Amen Thompson to have a quiet night with under 27.5 points + rebounds + assists. Thompson is one of the few Rockets with a negative net rating this season, as his stellar defense hasn’t been enough to offset dreadful offense. He will do his best to make an impact with some rebounds and assists, but this sky-high line is too much to ask with other scorers around him in Houston. Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson are two excellent defenders, which means Thompson will take a backseat on offense and not force things when better options are available. Once you add in that the Nuggets have allowed the second-fewest points to Thompson’s position in the league while also being bottom-ten in rebounds and assists allowed, this is an easy under. 

It is a relatively short betting slate for this one as the long list of Denver questionables make this a tough game to break down. Houston should be able to get the win and their moneyline can be used in parlays, but the spread is smelling like a trap and we will not force things with still 70+ games left to play this year. 

Pick: Jabari Smith Jr. Over 15.5 Points +100 2 Units

Pick: Amen Thompson Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -100 2 Units

2026-27 Season Record:
Moneyline: 2-0

Spread: 3-1

Total: 0-1

Player Props: 8-9

Overall: 13-11

Total Units: Down 5.2 Units 

2025-26 Season Record: 112-81, Up 69.3 Units

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