NBA Injury Impact Report Week of Nov. 9: Who to Back and Fade ATS

Checking the injury report has become just as important as checking the spread this season. Stars are going down every week, and coaches are stuck reshuffling their rotations on the fly. Sportsbooks move the numbers, but they don’t always move them far enough.
A sharpshooter in Charlotte, a big man in Detroit, a center in Utah and a two-time Finals MVP in Toronto are all stuck on the sidelines right now. Each one changes how their team should be bet, and I’ve got the back-or-fade call on all four, so grab a pen before the spreads catch up.
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Kon Knueppel, Hornets (Hamstring)
Hamstring problems already cost Kon Knueppel the start of the season, and now he won’t be back until Dec. 12. Losing the second-year sharpshooter for another month takes a big chunk of outside shooting away from the Hornets.
An offense built on spacing doesn’t look nearly as scary when its best shooter is stuck in street clothes. Scoring hasn’t dried up completely, with Brandon Miller averaging 25.6 points per game and Naz Reid and Grayson Allen picking up the rest of the load. None of them stretches the floor like a 42% 3-point shooter, and it’s shown, with the team hitting just 28% from beyond the arc.
Bettors backing this team haven’t had much to celebrate, with Charlotte sitting at 3-7 against the spread. Until Knueppel makes his return and the offense finds a rhythm, the Hornets stay on my fade list.
Jalen Duren, Pistons (Hamstring)
A $200 million extension bought Detroit exactly two games of Jalen Duren before his right hamstring gave out. The All-Star big man looked worth every penny in his debut with 22 points and nine rebounds, and now he won’t be back until around Nov. 24.
The good news for Detroit is that Cade Cunningham is still running the show, and Ausar Thompson has been recording 8.9 rebounds a night. The bad news is that nobody replaces a big man who grabbed 10.5 boards a game last season, and the Pistons are pulling down just 43.9 rebounds per game without Duren.
Here’s the thing: missing an All-Star big man to clog the paint, clean up under the rim and run the pick-and-roll hurts, but the reality is Detroit has been managing, sitting at 6-3 against the spread. Most of that comes down to Cunningham still handling the majority of the workload, with Thompson stepping in as the team’s top rebounder. This is a Pistons team that knows how to play physical and help out when needed, and Duren’s absence isn’t scaring me away from backing them in a good spot on the lines.
Jusuf Nurkic, Jazz (Toe)
A partial plantar plate tear in his right toe has kept Jusuf Nurkic out since the preseason, and he won’t be back until around Nov. 24. Nurkic isn’t a star by any stretch, but his 10.9 points and 10.4 rebounds a game have been hard to replace for a young team that already struggles on the glass.
Rebounding has been a problem all season, with the Jazz giving up 46 boards per game, ranking them 24th in the league. While Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George handle the scoring, there’s nobody underneath to clean up the mess, especially with Jaren Jackson Jr. also sidelined.
To be fair, most of Utah’s problems this season have nothing to do with Nurkic, but his absence doesn’t help the cause. The Jazz are now 1-9 against the spread, and betting smart means fading them in just about any game situation.
Kawhi Leonard, Raptors (Knee)
Some teams fall apart the second their star sits down, but the Raptors have handled it just fine so far. Kawhi Leonard’s knee swelling will keep him out until around Nov. 23.
No doubt about it, not having Leonard’s 19.5 points and 7.5 rebounds on the floor hurts, but this is a Raptors team that averages over 118 points a night and comes with depth. RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes are still combining for 45.1 points, 13.7 rebounds and nine assists per game, while Jakob Poeltl and the rest of the role players have handled the dirty work around them.
Surprisingly enough, Toronto has been reliable to say the least when listed as favorites, even without Leonard, sitting at 5-1 against the spread. Losing their star clearly hasn’t fazed them, so ride the gravy train.
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