Docs Website

54 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NBA Betting: Houston Rockets Season Long Handicapping 11/4/2026 vs Minnesota Timberwolves

by Spencer Toth - 11/4/2026

NBA betting Houston Rockets season long handicapping vs Minnesota Timberwolves Kevin Durant

You have found the right place for your Houston Rockets best bets, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every weekday matchup this season. We got off to a red-hot start before cooling down last week, and I am eager to replicate the 69.3 unit profit from last year. We won’t always side with Houston, as the goal is to exploit loose lines and soft matchups to generate a consistent profit. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Previous Game Betting Recap

On Monday night, the Houston Rockets took down the Boston Celtics 109-93 to improve to 7-1 on the year. Alperen Sengun was the best player on the court for the Rockets, as his 26 points and 10 assists were both game-highs, and he also tacked on seven rebounds, two steals, and two blocks. The Rockets were cold from deep in the first half but dominated the paint to take a 57-50 lead into the break. The Celtics then went on a 12-3 run near the start of the third to pull the game within two points at 70-68. Then came Marcus Smart. Smart checked in full of energy and instantly flipped the script for Houston. He was drawing charges, collecting steals, and was incredibly impactful for the Rockets. He started slow, but made a pair of triples early in the fourth to bring the lead back to double digits. The Rockets were able to overcome a slow offensive night from Kevin Durant with their energy, hustle on the defensive end, and depth advantage over the Celtics. 

From a betting perspective, we went 1-3. Our lone winner was on the Rockets to cover the -4.5-point spread, which they made look easy against the short-handed Celtics. In the player prop department, we took Sengun to stay under 6.5 assists, which did not happen. We also took Kevin Durant to hit 2+ and 3+ three-pointers, but he didn’t even attempt a shot from behind the arc. 

Rockets vs Timberwolves Preview

Tonight, the Rockets (7-1) wrap up a three-game homestand with a visit from the Minnesota Timberwolves (5-3). Minnesota was expected to challenge the top of the standings this year, but early injuries have derailed their aspirations. Donte DiVincenzo is still out with a ruptured Achilles, but the even bigger loss is leading scorer Anthony Edwards. The Timberwolves guard needed right knee surgery in late October and will miss two months of action, leaving the Timberwolves very shorthanded on the offensive end. Minnesota is built around having a strong defense, which still applies, but they are the last team in the league that can afford to lose a scorer like Edwards for an extended period of time. 

In the offseason, Minnesota made a big move to acquire LaMelo Ball. Ball is an explosive scorer with plenty of upside, and his offensive spark will be needed now more than ever with Edwards on the sidelines. He is only averaging 16.9 PPG this year,but scored his Timberwolves-high with 34 points with six threes against the Bucks on Monday. He is also the primary facilitator for the Timberwolves and has done a good job at sharing the rock with a team-high 5.9 assists. Ball’s ball-handling and rapidly improving game IQ will come into play as the Timberwolves attempt to unlock a stingy Rockets defense on the outside. There will be a few flashy moments where Ball tries something low-percentage, but those moments haven’t come as often as they did during his days in Charlotte. 

There will be plenty of energy on the outside, but the real matchup to highlight is Sengun against Rudy Gobert in the paint. Gobert is a four-time DPOY winner and one of the toughest matchups in the league, and Sengun will need to be on his A-game if he hopes to replicate his offensive showing from Monday night. While Gobert is one of the best shot stoppers in the league, he prefers to stay in and around the painted area on the defensive end. Against traditional centers, Gobert can be stifling, but he has been exposed in the open court by modern-day big men. Sengun certainly falls into the latter category with his consistent jump shot and incredible vision, which means he may be able to draw Gobert out of the paint and strand him on an island. Minnesota will take their chance with Gobert in the open court, but that leaves gaps behind him and could result in the Frenchman being on the wrong end of a Sengun highlight tape. 

The Rockets were dominant on the glass last season, leading the NBA in rebounds, but that hasn’t been the case this year. They are 14th in the league while it is the Timberwolves who sit atop the league. Gobert is a massive factor with his 12 rebounds per game, but the Timberwolves also have eight other players averaging at least three boards. The entire roster has bought into the scheme Chris Finch has drawn up, and they are turning those extra possessions into points. Their offensive rating is still being buoyed by the hot start from Edwards, as Minnesota will need extra possessions to consistently score against the sixth-ranked defensive unit in the league. 

Rockets vs Timberwolves Best Bets

We have been riding with the Rockets on the spread for much of this year, and they have rewarded us with a 7-1 record both straight up and against the spread. Unfortunately, the point spread is at -8 in favor of Houston, which is not a number I am comfortable laying against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are also 7-1 against the spread this year, so we will instead look to the total for our mainline pick. 

These are two very strong defenses that don’t play incredibly fast, making it hard to expect a real track meet in Houston tonight. The Rockets are 5-3 to the over while the Timberwolves are 4-4 this year, but this is the first time they are coming up against equally strong defenses. Houston thrives at shutting teams down on the outside, which is how Minnesota likes to score their points. The Timberwolves best defensive strength in slowing teams down in the paint, which is where Houston finds the most success on the offensive end. This is going to be a real defensive battle where both teams have to fight hard for every bucket, making the 220.5 point total a bit too high. For our first pick, take the under. 

For the second pick, we will be taking Alperen Sengun to drain at least one three-pointer at +130 odds. Sengun has been getting active from deep with a triple in five of his six games this year, and is getting a dream matchup against Gobert. Gobert will look to stay home as often as possible, while Sengun will try to draw him out of the paint to space the floor. Sengun will not hesitate to fire it off from deep, and I am a bit surprised we are getting +130 odds on this prop. We will even put a tiny sprinkle of half a unit on 2+ threes at +650 odds, as Sengun has done that twice this year, and it is hard to turn down that kind of value. 

Finally, we will take Tari Eason to stay under 1.5 threes at -220 odds. We have to pay some juice for this one, but with Eason’s minutes dwindling and a nightmare matchup against Jonathan Kuminga, I expect him to struggle to contribute on the offensive end. The Timberwolves do an excellent job at preventing threes from opposing forwards, and it is nice we are getting the 1.5 line rather than the 0.5 line with Eason. He is far from an elite sharpshooter anyway, but the extra insurance makes it incredibly unlikely he drains multiple threes in this matchup. 

Pick: Rockets vs Timberwolves Under 220.5 3 Units

Pick: Alperen Sengun Over 0.5 Threes +130 4 Units

Pick: Alperen Sengun 2+ Threes +650 0.5 Units

Pick: Tari Eason Under 1.5 Threes -220 2 Units

2026-27 Season Record:
Moneyline: 2-0

Spread: 3-1

Total: 0-0

Player Props: 7-7

Overall: 12-8

Total Units: Up 1.3 Units 

2025-26 Season Record: 112-81, Up 69.3 Units

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers