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NBA Betting: Houston Rockets Season Long Handicapping 11/11/2026 vs Golden State Warriors

by Spencer Toth - 11/11/2026

NBA betting Houston Rockets season long handicapping vs Golden State Warriors Kevin Durant

You have found the right place for all your Houston Rockets best bets, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every weekday matchup this season while providing free picks along the way. We won’t always favor the Rockets, but by taking a deep dive into their rotation, we will be able to generate a profit throughout the season. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Previous Game Betting Recap

On Monday night, the Houston Rockets snapped their two-game losing streak with a 110-100 victory over the Denver Nuggets. Houston dominated on the glass with a +11 rebound advantage, and converted those extra possessions into points with 14 three-pointers drained. They held Denver to just 8-for-29 from behind the arc, and were able to cruise for most of the game with their lead growing as high as 19 points. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for 63 points for the Nuggets, but it wasn’t enough as no other player scored more than eight points for Denver. For the Rockets, Kevin Durant had a dominant game on the offensive end with 23 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists, all of which were team highs. Denver had flight delays heading out of Mexico City the night before, and their tired legs allowed the Rockets to pick up a crucial win against a fellow Western Conference contender. 

From a betting perspective, we went 1-1 with both plays being two units. Our winner was Amen Thompson to have a slow night on the box score with under 27.5 points + rebounds + assists, and he finished with a pedestrian 8/9/3 stat line. Our other play was on Jabari Smith Jr. to go over 15.5 points, and he came close with 14 points on 6-for-13 from the floor and 2-for-8 from deep, but fell just short. 

Rockets vs Warriors Preview

Tonight, the Houston Rockets (8-3) host the Golden State Warriors (8-3) in a battle between two teams with equally hot starts. Golden State lost their first three games of the season, but have now ripped off eight straight wins heading into this matchup with Houston. Steph Curry is averaging more than 30 PPG and rookie Yaxel Lendeborg is making an instant impact on both ends of the floor. Golden State looked to be set up for failure this season with Jimmy Butler sidelined due to injury and Kristaps Porzingis MIA from the roster, but they have overcome those injuries for the time being. They have the second best offensive rating in the league, averaging 16.4 threes per game at a sizzling 40.3% from behind the arc, both of which lead the league. Curry deserves his flowers for still putting up stellar numbers at 38 years old, but it has been a real team effort. Lendeborg, Brandin Podziemski, and De’Anthony Melton are all averaging at least two makes per game on 40% or better from deep, as the Warriors consistently have at least four capable shooters on the floor at any given moment. 

This will create an enthralling battle in Houston, as the Rockets best defensive attribute is their ability to shut down the three-ball. The Rockets have the joint-lowest three-point percentage allowed in the league at 31.3%, and have only allowed 11.6 threes per game, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Thompson is the primary perimeter defender for the Rockets, but Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr. are also incredibly adept at rotating and taking away open looks. Once you add in the energy Marcus Smart brings off the bench, it is no surprise to see the Rockets with a top-five defensive rating that thrives in shutting down the deep ball. 

On the offensive end, the Rockets need Alperen Sengun to find some consistency. They know what they will get out of veterans like Durant and VanVleet on a nightly basis, but the hot and cold nature of Sengun’s offense has been frustrating for this fanbase. They haven’t been burned yet thanks to strong defense, but if the Rockets are serious about competing in a stacked West, Sengun needs to be their differencemaker on the inside. He’s leading the team with 21.3 PPG but has now shot under 36% from the floor in three of his last five games. He makes up for it with plenty of assists, but Sengun needs to make sure he is putting points on the board with a relatively defensive lineup around him. 

Warriors vs Rockets Best Bets

The Warriors have been one of the biggest positive surprises in the league this year with an 8-3 record through their first 11 games. They have pulled off big upsets over the Nuggets, Lakers, Heat, and Timberwolves during their eight-game win streak, but all good things must come to an end. Golden State has really struggled on the road over the last several seasons, and the Rockets are a nightmare matchup for their style of play. Golden State doesn’t have any power scorers to challenge the Rockets on the inside, and Houston will happily let them take contested threes all game long as the Rockets take away the perimeter. Brandon Williams has kept teams honest with his drives to the rim this year, but he is out with an injury, leaving Golden State even more shorthanded. The point spread is sitting at -6.5 in favor of the Rockets with a -250 moneyline, and we will take both of those bets for our first bets of the night. 

Looking at the player props, the first man to target is Amen Thompson. Thompson is on the roster for his defensive ability, and his role on the offensive end has begun to shrink since Reed Sheppard has returned to the lineup. He has only gone over his 15.5 point line once in the last six games, and has been held to single digits twice in that span. Golden State is a strong defensive team on the perimeter, and taking the under on Thompson at this price is the way to go. 

For our second Rockets player prop, we will take Kevin Durant to go over 3.5 assists at +100 odds. Durant has been getting involved in the passing game as of late, and this is exactly the matchup we need to take advantage of this plus money. The Warriors have a very strong defense overall, but have allowed the fourth-most assists to shooting guards and the eighth-most assists to small forwards this season. With Durant playing both of those positions, and rarely getting into the paint, he should be primed to have an excellent game as a distributor on that end of the floor. 

Finally, we will jump over to the Warriors to take Yaxel Lendeborg to rack up some steals. While Durant will look to pass the ball, he is turnover prone with his high-volume approach, and I expect Lendeborg to get his hands active at least once tonight. We can get -190 odds on 1+ steal and +255 odds on 2+ steals, both of which we will take. Lendeborg has logged at least one steal in four of his last five games, including a three-steal night against the Heat, and this matchup will give him plenty of opportunities to extend that streak. 

Large slate of picks for tonight. Let’s buckle up. 

Pick: Houston Rockets Moneyline -250 3 Units

Pick: Houston Rockets (-6.5) 1 Unit

Pick: Amen Thompson Under 15.5 Points 3 Units

Pick: Kevin Durant Over 3.5 Assists +100 2 Units

Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg 1+ Steals -190 3 Units

Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg 2+ Steals +255 1 Unit

2026-27 Season Record:
Moneyline: 2-0

Spread: 3-1

Total: 0-1

Player Props: 9-10

Overall: 14-12

Total Units: Down 5.4 Units 

2025-26 Season Record: 112-81, Up 69.3 Units

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