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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 12/26/2025 vs. Miami Heat

by Spencer Toth - 12/26/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Miami Heat Trae Young

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down Atlanta Hawks weekday games while providing best bets along the way. By dialing in on the Hawks this year, we have already been able to generate more than 25 units of profit, and we aren’t slowing down now. 

On Tuesday night, the Atlanta Hawks dropped their fourth game in a row, and the second straight against the Chicago Bulls. The 126-123 defeat was far from embarrassing, but back-to-back losses against the Bulls are not what the Hawks needed over the holidays. Jalen Johnson continues to lead the way with a 24/10/9 statline, while Trae Young had his first dominant game since returning from injury. Young’s 22 points and 15 assists in 31 minutes of action was a pleasant sight for Hawks fans, but it did little to mask the disappointment from coaches, fans, and players alike with the Hawks fourth straight loss. Josh Giddey led the way with a 29-point, 15-assist triple double, but it was once again the Bulls depth that proved to be the difference maker in that matchup. 

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect 2-0 night. It was a frightening pick to make after the Hawks and Bulls played out a 152-150 track meet on Sunday night, but we held our breath and took Under 253.5 points in the rematch. It was a sweat, but the two teams managed to stay just under the sky-high line. For our other prop, we took Nikola Vucevic to stay under 1.5 three pointers. He finished 1/6 from behind the arc, closing out a perfect night. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (15-16) continue their five-game home stand with a visit from the Miami Heat (15-15). These are the two coldest teams in the league, as both sides are 2-8 in their last ten games, sporting three and four game losing streaks. The Heat hold the eighth seed in the East right now, but a win for Atlanta would see them leapfrog Miami into the top eight. This is a crucial game for both sides as they look to get back on track. Injuries have been a concern for both the Heat and Hawks, and can be blamed for their recent skids, but the reality is that there is too much talent on the court to use that as a justification. The Heat have been relatively healthy outside of Tyler Herro, while the Hawks only have Kristaps Porzingis still out with a lingering illness. In tonight’s matchup, Bam Adebayo has joined Herro on the injury report, as he is listed as doubtful for this Boxing Day affair. 

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Adebayo likely missing this matchup is massive news for the Hawks, as they have really struggled to contain big men without Porzingis in the lineup. Onyeka Okongwu has stepped up nicely, but with Mouhamed Gueye also missing time, the Hawks are very thin in the frontcourt. Jalen Johnson has the size and physicality needed to play center for a few minutes, but he does his best work when he can operate in the open court. 

In the backcourt, Trae Young is back. He looks as healthy as ever, and he has started to find his rhythm in the Hawks' offense. His 15-assist outburst against the Bulls reminded his teammates what he is capable of, and the Hawks now need him more than ever. His backcourt partner, Dyson Daniels, is having a down season, meaning Young’s defensive work rate will be just as important as his offensive presence. His defense has improved this year, but it is still too early to tell if Young will maintain that level of intensity once he gets back into the swing of the gruelling NBA season. With Daniels only posting five steals in his last six games, the Hawks cannot afford to have a defensive liability alongside him. 

This really feels like a game the Hawks have to win to keep their season alive. A pair of losses to the Bulls is far from ideal, but they were close, high-scoring games that could have gone either way. They now take on a Heat side that will be without their two best players; they are at home and have no excuse for a fifth consecutive defeat. Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. will be responsible for the scoring tonight, and while that trio has upside, the Hawks are still the deeper and more talented team. Daniels has held Powell to just 16.6 PPG on 48% from the floor with a mere 1.0 assist per game in his previous meetings. This is a chance not only for the Hawks but also for Daniels to get back on track, and I expect them to rise to the occasion and secure a crucial win. 

For the first bet of the night, we will happily scoop up the Hawks and the -3.5 point spread at home. This spread implies these two teams are nearly evenly matched on a neutral court, and I simply disagree with Adebayo and Herro out. Kel’el Ware is poised for a big game down low, but he isn’t the offensive threat the Heat need to take advantage of the Hawks’ lack of size. Ware will collect his fair share of rebounds, but he won’t be enough of a difference to overcome the Hawks' advantages elsewhere on the court. Miami is 5-10 on the road compared to 10-5 at home, and with a potential Christmas hangover in play, laying the points with the home team is the way to go.
Speaking of Kel’el Ware, we will also take over 12.5 rebounds on the seven-footer. While Ware isn’t a household name, his primary job will be dominating the Hawks down low, and I expect him to do exactly that. He will not want to drift away from the basket with a size advantage inside, as Okongwu will struggle to rise high and rip rebounds out of Ware’s hands. He hauled in 12+ rebounds in four straight games before he had his minutes slashed last game, but that isn’t a concern with Adebayo unlikely to play. This is also a great ladder opportunity as Ware has collected 16+ rebounds on five different occasions this season, and he will have the minutes and opportunities tonight to stuff the stat sheet. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-3.5) 3 Units

Pick: Kel’el Ware Over 12.5 Rebounds 2 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-4

Spread: 13-10

Total: 1-6

Player Props: 20-8

Overall: 39-28

Total Units: Up 25.9 Units 

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