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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 12/31/2025 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

by Spencer Toth - 12/31/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping Minnesota Timberwolves Kristaps Porzingis

All year long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Atlanta Hawks weekday game, while providing free best bets along the way. We have been able to churn a consistent profit this season, generating more than 25 units of profit so far. I have no plans to slow down now, as we look to finish 2025 off with a bang. 

On Monday night, the Atlanta Hawks lost their seventh straight game, falling 129-140 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are the Thunder the best team in the league, but the Hawks were on the road and didn’t have Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, or Kristaps Porzingis available. They actually took a narrow lead into halftime, but the Thunder’s superior quality and deep bench eventually prevailed. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 39 points, as even 25 threes for Atlanta weren’t enough to pull off the upset. 

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From a betting perspective, we had a perfect night. I didn’t have the guts to take the +17 point spread on the Hawks, but that didn’t stop us from churning a nice profit. We got aggressive with Jalen Williams to score 20+ points at +110 odds, which paid off as he finished with exactly 20 points in 33 minutes of action. Our other bet was on Trae Young to get a steal, which was voided after a later scratch for the Hawks' point guard. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (15-19) are desperate for a win as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves (21-12) in a rare afternoon game. The 3 pm EST tip-off is unusual for both teams, but it may be exactly what the Hawks need to snap out of their funk. Jalen Johnson is healthy, Young is questionable, and the big news for Atlanta is that Kristaps Porzingis has left the injury report. Porzingis has played just once in the last 15 games, as a lingering illness kept him on the sidelines. His return will give the Hawks some much-needed protection in the paint, as they have had to go deep down into their bench to find enough size on the inside. Porzingis and Johnson have been the two best players on the Hawks this season, and their return gives the Hawks a fighting chance against the red-hot Timberwolves. 

Minnesota is jockeying for positioning in the Western Conference, as it is 2.5 games behind the 2nd-place Spurs but also just 1.5 games ahead of the 7th-place Suns. Every win is crucial for the Timberwolves, as they match up nicely in multiple areas of the court. Anthony Edwards is their talisman on the outside, while Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle can use their physicality to win battles down low. The Timberwolves have always been known as a solid defensive team since Gobert started to string together DPOY awards, but they have now changed their identity to a much more balanced squad. They have the 5th-best defensive rating in the league, and can now pair that with their 8th-ranked offense. Anthony Edwards has developed into the talent the Timberwolves were hoping he would, and his clutch shots for Minnesota have allowed them to hold onto a top-six seed in the West. 

One big factor for that is the continuity the Timberwolves have built. They began this season with the same starting five as last year and have been able to stay incredibly healthy. Donte DiVincenzo, Randle, and Gobert have all started every game this season, while the other two starters, Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards, have only missed a combined 9 games. Once you couple that with a dominant Naz Reid off the bench, who also hasn’t missed a game, it is no surprise to see Minnesota staying afloat in the West. 

While the Timberwolves have managed to stay healthy and gel as a team, the story couldn’t be more different in Atlanta. There isn’t a single player on the Hawks who has yet to miss a game this year. The players who have only missed a game or two are bursting with potential, such as Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, but both are having very disappointing seasons. The healthy Hawks are underperforming, the stars have missed time with injuries, and it is no surprise to see Atlanta quietly slipping out of the playoff picture. Their seven-game losing streak is no fluke, as their lack of defensive toughness has allowed them to lose games where they are scoring 150, 129, 126, 125, and 123 points in their current skid. Offense hasn’t been a problem for Atlanta, but getting the clutch shots they need, combined with stops on the other end of the court, has been their downfall.
However, all hope is not lost. 

Porzingis coming back into the lineup against a tall and talented team like Minnesota is exactly what the doctor ordered. His partnership with Jalen Johnson down low has flourished, as there is no shortage of size on the Atlanta roster. If Young and Daniels can start delivering on the outside, the Hawks could suddenly be back in contention amidst a wide-open Eastern Conference. Rounding out the starting five is Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who is having the best year of his career. He didn’t get the minutes he wanted in Minnesota, and this will be his first game against his former team. He may have to come off the bench if the Hawks are healthy, but he will still get 25+ minutes to show his former employer the mistake they made. 

The Hawks are on a seven-game losing streak, which is now their second-longest since 2019. This makes taking them on the spread tonight a daunting pick, but with the current odds and injury reports, we have no choice. A healthy Hawks side should not be a five and a half point underdog at home, and we will plug our nose and take the points in the hopes they can snap their skid. A small sprinkle on the +165 moneyline is also worthwhile, as the return of Porzingis hasn’t been accurately reflected in this line. The Hawks are as desperate as ever for a win,  and after putting up a fight against the defending champs on Monday, I expect them to use that as a platform to get their season back on track.
For the next bet of the night, we will target the matchup inside. While Porzingis’s return will allow the Hawks to spread the floor on offense, he has been completely dominated by Rudy Gobert in the past. Porzingis is averaging 5.5 rebounds against Gobert in his career, while the Frenchman is averaging 13.2 in games against Porzingis. His physicality is something that will allow him to collect extra possessions, but Porzingis will make up for it by stranding him in the open court on the defensive end. We will take Gobert to collect over 11.5 rebounds at -130, while also sprinkling on 14+ rebounds at +190 odds. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (+5.5) 3 Units

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline +165 1 Unit

Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds 4 Units

Pick: Rudy Gobert 14+ Rebounds +190 1 Unit

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-4

Spread: 13-11

Total: 1-6

Player Props: 22-8

Overall: 41-29

Total Units: Up 29.2 Units  

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