Graduation and attrition has shredded the Big Ten heading into the 2009 season. And after four straight years of being humiliated in nonconference and bowl games against teams from other BCS conferences it might be safe to say that the Big Ten is as weak now as it ever has been.

However, that should make for a wide-open conference title race. Ohio State and Penn State are the clear-cut favorites heading into the season. But with just 21 returning starters between them (compared to Minnesota’s 17 returning starters all by itself) a Clash of the Titans is not assured throughout this season. Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa are all very live dogs in this fight and I get the sense that one of those sleepers will be going toe-to-toe with the Big Boys as we head down the conference stretch run.

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Here are my 2009-10 Big Ten Football Predictions to help you with your football picks:

The Favorite: Ohio State
It’s all about Terrelle Pryor this year. The sophomore quarterback is one of the most physically gifted players in the country and got some much needed experience last season. That’s key, because when you look at what the Buckeyes lost to graduation and the draft it’s staggering. But that’s where coaching comes in. Ohio State isn’t a good team this year compared to what they’ve been over the past three seasons. But with Jim Tressel at the helm you just know that they’ll be in it come November. They really need a win over USC in September to get out from underneath that dark cloud forming above their program. After that, they get all their tough conference games at home except one – at Penn State on Nov. 7.

The Challenger: Penn State
The Nittany Lions offense was simply devastating in the Big Ten last year and Joe Pa steered his team to 11 wins for the second time in four years. But, much like Ohio State, the Nittany Lions just lost a ton of talent from last year to this one. Penn State returns just nine total starters from last year’s squad so I’m looking for them to take a step back. But the schedule sets up nicely, with six of their first seven games at home. That will help this team settle in and if they can get past Iowa and Illinois then they should be set up for that tilt with OSU in November. I think the Nittany Lions are going to have a tough year against the spread.

The Dark Horse: Michigan State
Mark D’Antonio is one of the best and most underrated coaches in the country. And in just two seasons he has provided stability to what was one of the shakiest, most unpredictable programs in the country. First, the negative: the Spartans enter the season with an unproven quarterback and running back. That’s crippling. But the positive is that they have the best defense outside of Ohio State and they have 15 starters back. Also, Sparty avoids Ohio State. That’s huge because MSU lost by  an average of 35 points last year to the Buckeyes and Lions.

The X-Factor: Illinois
This is the team that I really have my eye on this year as a potential spoiler in the Big Ten. They have a load of speed and explosiveness on offense. And if the Big Ten has proven anything over the last few years it’s that it can’t deal with speed. It’s all about Juice Williams now. If he can show that he’s the mature leader of this team they will win the conference. But he’s been shaky through three seasons and I don’t know if there’s much reason to think he’s changed. We’re going to know a lot about this team early. They play at Ohio State and then host Penn State and Michigan State right in a row. If they win two of those three games they are in the driver’s seat for the conference crown. And getting those teams early – all three of them have significant issues that revolve around experience – is a huge benefit for the Illini. The trouble is I could see them winning two of three there but then tripping up in a game that they should easily win.

The Surprise Teams: Iowa and Minnesota
I really like the Hawkeyes as a solid ATS squad this year. This was a nine-win team last year. And of their four losses three were on the road (at Pitt, at Michigan State, at Illinois) against quality opponent and the average margin of defeat for the year was just four points. Iowa did lose its three best players, including studs Shonn Greene and Mitch King. But they have a dominating offensive line, an improving quarterback, and three players in their defensive back seven that received postseason honors. There’s a lot to be excited about. The schedule isn’t one of them. Iowa is at Penn State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State and at Ohio State. That is brutal. But this is going to be a very, very solid squad and if they can find some luck on the road they could be an eight-win squad.

The Gophers clearly don’t have enough talent to compete with the Big Boys. But something about this team has caught my eye and I think that they could be a wicked spoiler. They have the most returning starters in the Big Ten and a QB-RB-WR combo that could line up against just about anyone’s. This is the first season of their outdoor stadium and with a veteran squad they could just happen to catch fire. Unfortunately, they have to play at Ohio State and at Penn State. But they get Wisconsin, Michigan State and Illinois at home. I’ll be stunned if they don’t pull at least one upset out of that group. They did benefit from a lot of fluke bounces last season but I think their October cameo in the Top 25 could be a sign of things to come.

The Disappointment: Michigan
Sorry Michigan fans: this transition period is going to be longer and more painful than any of you thought. Michigan does have 10 starters back from last year’s young offense. But they still don’t have a quarterback and will be relying on freshman Tate Forcier to get the job done. They have a new defensive coordinator and although there are some talented pieces on that side of the ball they are still just mediocre on D. The schedule does them no favors. They host Penn State and Ohio State after losing to both by a combined 88-24 margin last year. And they have to go on the road to face the next best four teams: Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa and Wisconsin. I don’t know if they’ll win more than one of those four games and if they don’t beat Notre Dame on Sept. 12 in the Big House then the Wolverines might not be bowling again this year.

The Rest:

Wisconsin – One of the biggest disappointments in the country last year, Wisconsin can pretty much close its eyes in 2009 and still end up in a solid bowl game. The Badgers have by far and away the easiest schedule in the Big Ten and they have a really good shot at a 10-win regular season. They only bring back 11 returning starters and have quarterback issues (again) but other than a tough Michigan State, at Minny, at Ohio State, Iowa stretch their schedule is a joke.

Northwestern – Pat Fitzgerald is a great coach and has a solid system in place. But after two solid (by NU standards) seasons I look for a steep drop-off. Northwestern had 10 three-years starters (including a QB, RB, and three WR) and 12 senior starters last year. This season those numbers dip to six and eight and they have to replace all of their skill people. Their schedule is back-loaded so this team could get off to a fast start. But don’t be fooled; the Wildcats are going to get killed in October and November.

Purdue – Last year was a disappointing one for the Boilermakers in Joe Tiller’s final season. And losing Curtis Painter and five other offensive starters doesn’t bode well for the new coaching staff. But the Boilermakers were scrappy last year, losing to Penn State and Ohio State by just a combined 27 points (compare that to Michigan and Michigan State) and barely losing to bowl teams Oregon and Iowa. Purdue has seven home games this year but I look around their schedule and I still don’t see more than five wins for the new coach.

Indiana –The dismissal of do-it-all quarterback Kellen Lewis sunk what could have been a decent sleeper season for Indiana in its new stadium. The Hoosiers have five three-year starters on defense, but they still suck overall. Their average loss last year was 41-14 in conference play and they have finished ranked No. 100 or lower in all of football in five of the past 10 years. Not much to say other than these guys suck.

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