It’s never too early to provide Doc’s readers with free Super Bowl picks even though the game is still 12 days away, so here I am to do just that. Of course, I also will add one caveat: always wait until the last minute to get those bets down. You never know when an injury could occur during practice before the Super Bowl or if a team’s starting center goes haywire and gets suspended for the big game (sorry for the low blow, Raiders fans).

With all due respect to fans of the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, Super Bowl XLVI is the matchup that all of America wanted: the New England Patriots and New York Giants. Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning. A chance for Brady to join select company with a fourth Super Bowl title. Eli can pass big brother Peyton with title No. 2 and do it in the house the Peyton built. And, of course, it’s a chance for the Pats to get some payback from that epic upset loss to the Giants four seasons ago when New England was attempting to finish unbeaten.

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This is the Pats’ seventh Super Bowl, which trails only Pittsburgh and Dallas (eight apiece). It’s the fifth for Brady, which ties John Elway for the most by a starting quarterback. 

Giants vs. Patriots How The Teams Enter

What on earth are the Giants (12-7) doing here? Do you realize that New York had a minus-six point differential during the regular season? Two losing teams, the Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins, had a better differential than the G-Men. Of course, the Seahawks beat the Giants in New York and Miami should have. Oh, and the Giants lost twice to the crappy Redskins. But New York found its mojo at just the right time, as in the 2007 title run, and enters on a five-game winning streak. The Giants do need to send Niners return man Kyle Williams a thank-you card, however.

One could also ask what New England (15-3) is doing here. Sure, the Pats have won 10 in a row and were the AFC’s top seed. But they had one of the NFL’s worst-ever pass defenses. And the Patriots hadn’t beaten a team that finished with a winning record until Sunday’s AFC Championship Game victory over Baltimore.

Frankly, the Ravens should have won that game as they outgained the Patriots, dominated time of possession, and had two fewer turnovers than New England. But Ravens receiver Lee Evans couldn’t hang onto a touchdown pass that would have won it. He was spared goat status, however, when kicker Billy Cundiff inexplicably missed a 32-yard field goal with 11 seconds left.

Tom Brady was outplayed by Joe Flacco, with Brady’s streak of 18 consecutive postseason games with a passing touchdown (second-longest in NFL history) coming to an end. It was only the fifth game of Brady’s career in which he didn’t throw for a touchdown and had at least two interceptions.

Teams with at least three turnovers, which is how many New England had, had lost their past 22 playoff games prior to Sunday, dating back the Patriots' win in the 2007 AFC Championship Game against the Chargers. Teams that were minus-two or worse in turnover differential are now 3-46 all-time in conference championship games (since 1970). The other two winners were the 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers and 1981 San Francisco 49ers.

Giants vs. Patriots Betting Storylines

Can the G-Men beat the Patriots twice in one season as the road team? New York, which is the visiting team in the Super Bowl, went to New England in Week 9 and won 24-20 on a one-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left. That ended Brady’s 31-game winning streak at home in regular-season games and a 20-game regular-season home win streak overall for the Pats.

The Giants went into a funk after that game, dropping their next four to cough up the NFC East lead they wouldn’t get back for good until the final night of the regular season. New England hasn’t lost since.

Injuries shouldn’t play a role here with two weeks in between the conference title games and the Super Bowl. The main injury to watch is Patriots star tight end Rob Gronkowski, who hurt his ankle in the third quarter against the Ravens. But there’s no doubt he will play, although he may be in a walking boot for a few days. The only key Patriot who missed Sunday’s game was tackle Sebastian Vollmer, and he could be back.

Giants vs. Patriots Betting Odds and Trends

New England opened as the three-point favorite with the total at 55, according to NFL odds. Don’t look for the line to move (it was briefly at 3.5 at a few books), but the total could rise again. It dropped from 56 already at some books but the early action is leaning heavily on the ‘over’ so far.

The Giants are 11-7-1 ATS this season, covering their past five. The Patriots are 10-8 ATS this season – they didn’t cover against Baltimore. ‘Over/under’ records: NYG 9-9-1, NE 12-6.

The Giants are 7-0 ATS in past seven vs. a team with a winning record. They have covered an astounding eight straight playoff games as a dog. The Pats, meanwhile, are just 1-6 ATS in past seven as a playoff favorite.

The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series.

Favorites are 25-18-2 ATS in Super Bowl history, with Green Bay covering last year against Pittsburgh. The underdog has won outright 12 times.

Free Super Bowl Picks: Giants vs. Patriots Betting Predictions

If this game is even close to the last Super Bowl meeting between these two, it will be a classic. Back then Manning threw a 13-yard TD pass to Plaxico Burress – four plays after the all-time catch by former Giants WR David Tyree – with 35 seconds left in a 17-14 victory.

In that game, the Giants were able to get pressure on Brady, and I would say that pressure on the QB will be the difference here as well. In the Giants' victory over the 49ers on Sunday, Manning was sacked six times, hurried 11 times and knocked down 19. That offensive line could have trouble with Pats tackle Vince Wilfork, who has been a beast in these playoffs.

If the Pats don’t get to Manning, they are toast. New England is the first team in Super Bowl history to go to the Super Bowl with a defense that gave up more than 360 yards a game in the regular season. The 4,703 passing yards surrendered by the Pats during the regular season were the second worst in NFL history, second only to this year’s Packers. And we saw what Manning did to them, throwing for 330 and three scores in the divisional round upset.

New York is better than it was four years ago. New England isn’t as good. So take the Giants but with both defenses playing better, go ‘under’.

In addition to these free Super Bowl picks, Doc’s Sports editorial team will provide a ton of free Super Bowl content including betting the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl handicapping, betting on the Super Bowl over and under, and much more. Doc’s Sports handicappers will also offer expert football picks for the game, including prop bets along with the side and total. Also check out our Sportsbook bonus page here for the best in Super Bowl deposit bonuses.