Get 2008 Belmont Stakes coverage including updated articles and handicapping advice as well as Belmont Stakes Picks and live Belmont Stakes Odds.

Now that the Kentucky Derby is just a few days away and the field is set, the serious business of trying to figure out who is going to win is now in full swing. Every year there are several major trends that we have to contend with as we make our choices. For example, last year we had to decide if we liked Street Sense even though a Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner had never won the Derby. We don't have to worry about that one this year because War Pass is out with an injury. More than in most years, though, there are a huge number of other trends and tendencies that need to be considered. This year's Kentucky Derby field is deep and competitive, but not as strong or impressive as in recent years. That means that picking a winner requires you to decide which of the many intriguing but flawed horses you are going to jump on.

HUGE 20% Sign up Bonus at Bookmaker
Click Here

Traditionally, handicappers have looked for a horse in the Derby that fits into a general template - he raced as a two year old, he has a solid base of experience in the Derby year including a start within a month of the big race, he is comfortable on the surface, he's proven to be comfortable with a crowded race, and he's bred for the distance. Unfortunately, most of that is out the window this year. Just take a look:

Long layoff - There used to be a cardinal rule - a horse couldn't win the Derby if he hadn't raced in more than a month going into the Derby. Needles did it in 1956, but then there was a 50-year drought for well-rested runners. That all changed in 2006, though, when Barbaro won off of a five-week break. Now we have to decide whether that was a fluke, or if racing has changed enough that breaks don't matter like they used to. This year, favorite Big Brown is copying Barbaro by not running since the Florida Derby at the end of March. Joining him in the well-rested club are Smooth Air from the same race, and Adriano, the winner of the Lane's End on March 22.

Base of experience - This is where it gets really crazy. Since 1933 only three horses have won the Derby with less than six career starts, and each of those horses had five starts. This year, Big Brown, Denis of Cork, Gayego, and Monba all fall short of the six-race threshold, and Big Brown has only been in the starting gate three times. That's crazy. On top of that, only seven horses since 1937 have won while racing less than three times as a three year old before the Derby. This year there are six horses - Big Brown, Colonel John, Court Vision, Monba, Recapturetheglory, and Tale of Ekati - that have only run twice. That's not an irrelevant group, either - it includes the winners of most of the major prep races including the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, and Florida, Illinois and Santa Anita Derbies.

Comfortable on dirt - This used to be a given because very few young horses would try turf if they were heading to the Derby. Now that synthetic surfaces are on several tracks, though, this has all changed. If horses haven't run on dirt, or if they haven't run well if they have, then we have no idea how they are going to do on the Derby dirt. This year there are four horses, including the likely heavily backed Colonel John, who have never run on dirt, and others who have limited experience or have struggled on the real stuff. Gayego had never run on dirt before heading to the Arkansas Derby and he won it handily, so some people are suggesting that the transition will go well for horses out of California. On the other hand you have a horse like Monba. He looked decent on the synthetic in California, terrible on the dirt in Florida, and then won on the synthetic in the Blue Grass. To complicate things further, Monba has a win as a two year old in an allowance race at Churchill Downs. That means that either his dislike of dirt is new, or that the race at Gulfstream was just a disaster and he is fine on the surface despite no recent proof.

After completing this article view our Breeders Cup odds page. Our Breeders Cup picks page is also must read when studding horse racing. If you plan on betting horse racing you'll also want to read our horse racing gambling terms page. Is there a horse betting or handicapping topic you would like to see covered? Email service@docsports with your recommendations.

Comfortable in a crowd - For more than 40-straight years the Derby winner has faced a field of 10 or more runners before the Derby. Eight Belles hasn't (I'm not even going to touch on the fact that she is a filly and all the handicapping problems that creates). Twelve of the last 20 winners have shown a proven ability to handle traffic - they have been bumped hard or cut off and recovered well. This is especially important in such a big and crazy race as the Derby can be. Fully half of this year's field hasn't been tested in this way in their careers. Most notably, favorite Big Brown has had nothing but smooth sailing in his three races.