Nothing says “spring is almost here” or “Baseball Season” like three feet of snow and -12 degree temperatures, amirite???
Despite the icy death grip that winter is inflicting on most of the country, baseball season – and spring along with it – are just
weeks away. Pitchers and catchers report this weekend, and spring training will be in full swing starting next week.
As is customary, the Las Vegas sportsbooks released their MLB season win total “over/unders” for each team in the Big Leagues. Atlantis was the first book
to post anything last Friday, followed by Monday’s release from Westgate. By Tuesday evening every major offshore book had MLB season win totals available
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Here is a look at quick breakdown of the 2015 MLB season win totals, using the numbers released by Westgate:
Arizona Diamondbacks 72.5 –
This is a Triple-A lineup, and the Diamondbacks are clearly the worst team in the National League’s toughest division. They won just 64 games last year,
the second time in the last five year’s they’ve failed to top 65, and I have a hard time seeing them topping this number this season.
Atlanta Braves 73.5 –
I’m higher on the Braves than everyone else. They were bad last year and still won 79 games, and Fredi Gonzalez has always been great at getting the most
out of limited talent.
Baltimore Orioles 81.5 –
Apparently no one is buying the Orioles resurgence. They’ve won 93, 85 and 96 games in the last three seasons, respectively. Even though they lost Nelson
Cruz and Nick Markakis. But they welcome back (from injury) Matt Wieters and Manny Machado.
Boston Red Sox 84.5 –
The Red Sox are always going to have inflated season win totals because of the inherent irrationality (and aggressive betting patterns) of their fan base.
But how much better are they than last year’s 71-win group?
Chicago Cubs 82.5 –
The Cubs dominated this offseason, hiring Joe Maddon and signing Jon Lester. But Cubs futures are always massively overpriced because Chicago fans are
sentimental idiots. I can see Chicago winning 84-85 games, but there’s no value on betting on it to happen.
Chicago White Sox 82.0 –
This strikes me as another extremely optimistic number. Who on this team can hit? Are Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche worth 10 wins? Absolutely not.
Cincinnati Reds 78.0 –
The Reds bandwagon sure emptied out quickly. These guys won 90 games just two seasons ago, and their 2014 was derailed by injuries to their three best
hitters. This number should’ve been 80.5.
Cleveland Indians 84.5 –
Despite back-to-back winning seasons, I’m not nearly as high on the Tribe as the books, apparently. Besides their five-year run from 1995-1999 they haven’t
finished over .500 in three straight years since the 1950s.
Colorado Rockies 71.5 –
At what point do we stop talking about Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki as two of the “best young players in the game”. The oft-injured duo have been
the leaders of a franchise that’s averaged 69.3 wins the past four years of their prime.
Detroit Tigers 83.5 –
Health is the only thing that keeps this team from 90 wins. If Yoenis Cespedes, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera each play 140 games they
are going to win 90.
Miami Marlins 81.5 –
I really like this team, but the books have beaten us to the punch. They haven’t finished over .500 since 2009 and have topped this number just two times
in the last nine years.
Houston Astros 75.5 –
This line is a farce. The Astros overachieved last year and still only won 70 games. And that was still a 19-win improvement! Houston won exactly one-third
of its games from 2011-13 while averaging just 54 victories per season. They are still easily one of the worst teams in baseball.
Kansas City Royals 79.5 –
This line predicts a steep drop for a team that was one game –and just two runs – away from a World Series title. They lost plenty of pitching, but this
number seems low with the core returning for this group.
Los Angeles Angels 88.5 –
The Angels snapped a four-year playoff drought in 2014 by winning a MLB-best 98 games. Their lineup is still stacked, and their pitching solid. But they’ll
have three other contenders in the West waiting to siphon off W’s.
Los Angeles Dodgers 93.5 –
The Dodgers spent another offseason making splashy move after splashy move. But are they better than last year’s 94-win team? I’m selling this stock short.
Milwaukee Brewers 78.5 –
Still seeped in the stench of Ryan Braun’s bad karma, the Brewers are closer to being a contender than they are to falling off the map. If Aramis Ramirez
and Adam Lind can find it then these guys will be in play.
Minnesota Twins 72.5 –
The Twins actually beat their season win total number last year (70 wins vs. a 65.5 total). But they still canned Ron Gardenhire after four straight ugly,
noncompetitive seasons. They have a new manager (Paul Molitor) but not much talent.
New York Mets 82.0 –
After a drunken conversation with a member of the Mets front office last fall I can assure you: these guys are nowhere near this close to competing and are
likely headed for an eighth straight losing season. They need to turn their pitching surplus into some guys that can hit.
New York Yankees 81.5 –
The Yankees had their 2014 sabotaged by injuries, and that would normally prime them for a bounce back. But you can’t quantify the negative karma
surrounding this franchise right now, and each of their best pitchers is coming back from a major injury.
Oakland A'S 80.5 –
A lot of people are predicting disaster for the A’s. But all these guys do is win, and they have finished .500 or better in four of the last five years.
They’ve beaten their MLB season win totals in back-to-back years but are just 4-4 in their last eight season.
Philadelphia Phillies 68.5 –
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. But have they fallen this far? Philadelphia has been terrible the last two years, but they haven’t been this weak.
Pittsburgh Pirates 83.5 –
The Pirates have beaten their Vegas wins over/under four straight years, the best mark in baseball. They’ve turned over a lot of roster spots the last two
years. But they still have the core of the team intact, including All-World outfielder Andrew McCutchen, and enough pitching to stay viable in the Central.
San Diego Padres 84.5 –
The Padres won the offseason. Now how many games can they win during the season? San Diego is the latest in a long line of teams that made splashy move
after splashy move in the winter. Most of the others ended up collapsing under the weight of their own expectations.
San Francisco Giants 83.5 –
The whole is always greater than the sum of its parts with this group, so they are difficult to project. But this seems way too low. The Giants have won 86
or more games in five of the last six years. Yes, they tanked (from 94 wins to 76) in the season following their last World Series win. But they won 86
games following their 2010 title.
Seattle Mariners 87.5 –
The Mariners enter the year with a load of hype and expectations after last season’s 87-win breakout. But in 2008 and 2010 they followed up winning seasons
with grotesque 61-win nightmares, and they have gone over their Vegas win total twice in a row since 2006-07.
St. Louis Cardinals 88 –
I guess the key question is why wouldn’t the Cardinals win over 88 games? They’ve hit that mark in four straight seasons and in nine of the last 15. Their
roster and farm system are stacked, and they are a World Series favorite. No reason not to play this group over.
Tampa Bay Rays 80.0 –
The Joe Maddon Era has ended, and his departure closes the book on the best turnarounds in MLB history. Tampa Bay hadn’t won over 70 games in its decade in
existence and then averaged 89.6 wins per year from 2008 to 2014.
Texas Rangers 79.5 –
The Rangers are trying to bounce back from what was truly a horrific 2014. Injuries completely ravished their roster, their manager quit, and the roster is
now the shell of the team that made it to back-to-back World Series. It can’t be worse than last year’s 72-win struggle. But how much better can it be?
Toronto Blue Jays 82.5 –
I want to like this team. But to this point the hype has far exceeded the production. The Jays simply don’t have enough pitching, either starters or in the
bullpen, to play consistently for 162 games.
Washington Nationals 93.5 –
Last year at this time people suggested that the Detroit Tigers might have the best rotation of all-time and they won 90 games. Now the Nats are getting
that type of hype, and once again I am not buying.
Robert Ferringo is a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He is considered one of the top MLB cappers in the country and has turned a profit
in five of the last seven years on the diamond with his baseball picks. He closed 2012 with an amazing $11,700 in earnings over the last four months and
this summer will try for three of four profitable years. He is looking forward to a great upcoming season against the MLB odds. Click here for more information on his MLB picks.
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