I hate NFL mock drafts. Actually, that’s only partly true. If the person who is writing the NFL mock draft has real insight into what teams are thinking and what could happen, then they are very interesting. If people are just guessing, though, then they are pretty much a total waste of time. I don’t have any general managers or scouts on speed dial, so I’ll spare you the agony of doing a mock draft of my own. What I can and will do, though, is pick out the 32 players who I think are worthy of being first round picks in a list of my top 2011 NFL draft prospects:
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1. Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson - Bowers is a total beast -- the full package. He has game changing capabilities, and though anyone can be a disappointment in the pros Bowers seems like a low-risk pick.
2. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU - Peterson is electric -- the kind of guy who just makes things happen. You don’t want to kick to him, you don’t want to pass near him, and f he lined up on offense you’d be scared of him too. Massive potential.
3. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama - A lot of people have Nick Fairley as the top DT, and perhaps the top overall pick. I’d take Dareus over Fairley any day, though. He’s physically impressive, but even more impressive than that is his technique. The guy knows what he’s doing, and technique transfers to the pros consistently.
4. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M - A great linebacker is the dream of every defensive coordinator. They run the defense and you can just plug them in, trust their instincts, and rely on them for a decade. Miller should be that type of guy.
5. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia - There are two difference making, stunningly impressive receivers in this draft. Green is, by a narrow margin, the more impressive one. He’s the type of guy that can make a QB better right away.
6. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn - Fairley is this low on my list because I am not entirely convinced that he can make the step up. He’s a phenomenal athlete, but he relies on that athleticism too much -- he’s just that much more gifted than his opponents. That won’t be the case in the pros, and it’s going to take time for him to get his technique up to snuff.
7. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska - He’s a shutdown corner who is going to be effective in the pros -- you can be as sure of that as you can of any strong CB prospect. A team will be lucky to get him -- and not just because his name is so cool.
8. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado - He’s not quite as strong as Amukamara, but he’s close. In a sense he’s even more impressive because he has played so well on such a mess of a team.
9. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado - Here’s another guy who gets credit for being so good on such a lousy team. You have to wonder how Dan Hawkins struggled so badly when he obviously could recruit. Solder is the type of guy who will quietly but effectively do his job for a long, long time.
10. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina - On athleticism and technique alone he’d be higher. There are reasons to be concerned, though -- he missed the last year so he will be rusty, the reason for him missing the year leads to off-the-field issues, and serious health concerns from high school could challenge his longevity in the pros.
11. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama - Jones isn’t quite as good as Green perhaps, but he’s darned close. When he is on his game he can make catches that should absolutely be impossible. He could be a game changer.
12. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa - I have Clayborn higher than some because I just love watching the guy play. In a word he’s disruptive. He loves hitting quarterbacks, and he just finds a way to do what he loves. He’s not the most physically talented, but his hunger overcomes that.
13. Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin - I like Carimi a lot. What impresses me most is his aggressiveness -- several times I have seen him not only contain an opposing lineman, but drive him 10 or 15 yards down the field. He loves to dominate, and you have to like that.
14. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin - It’s amazing that a guy who started as a tight end at Central Michigan should go as a top half of the first round DE. Watt has very impressive instincts, and he plays like what he is -- an extremely intelligent guy.
15. Tyron Smith, OT, USC - I don’t think that Smith is necessarily a world class tackle, but he has a chance -- and the skills -- to be a solid starting left tackle in the league. That’s a valuable commodity.
16. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama - Whenever I think of Ingram I think of Darren McFadden. They aren’t really the same type of runner, but they are both, in my mind, freakish college athletes who aren’t going to be quite the same in the pros. He’s going to go higher than he should because this draft is so short of top runners.
17. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois - It’s a very good year for defensive linemen from the Big Ten. Liuget is very fast off the snap, and he is a total beast against the run. He’s a guy who will start quickly and effectively.
18. Cameron Jordan, DE, California - Jordan is one of those guys who doesn’t do any particular thing brilliantly well, but he does pretty much everything he has to do effectively. He’s well rounded -- you might not see him on the highlight reels all the time, but you’ll be happy he’s on your team if you pay attention.
19. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn - This is probably low for Newton -- he could go as high as third in the draft. I’m still skeptical, though -- he’s ridiculously athletic, and he can clearly perform at a high level, but he’s not a prototypical NFL QB at all, and the atypical guys at QB normally struggle badly.
20. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri - Smith has a lot of work to do against the pass. Against the run, though, he’s pretty much as good as there is in this draft. He’ll be very useful in certain situations off the bat, and has the tools to become a well-rounded starter.
21. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple - Here’s our first non-BCS conference player. Wilkerson is a pass rusher who just gets the job done. He is physically impressive, and he knows how to punish linemen and get in their heads.
22. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue - I’m very high on Kerrigan. He’s not the most physically talented guy, but he is the definition of relentless. He’s the type of guy who you could kick in the teeth until you think he’s unconscious and he’d be up and looking for a fight again before you could turn around. He’ll be a wildly popular guy to fans and his teammates, and could be a bargain in the second half of the first round.
23. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA - I wish he played a little bit tougher, but Ayers is a guy who can start at LB soon and for a long while. He’s not really a defensive QB type, but he’ll get the job done as a member of the supporting cast.
24. Mike Pouncey, C, Florida - If Pouncey can be half the player as a rookie as his twin brother Maurkice was for the Steelers this year then he’ll be a successful pick. He can play center or guard, so he offers nice versatility.
25. Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky - Cobb is not nearly as impressive as Jones or Green, but he’s very good nonetheless. I don’t really believe he’s a No. 1 receiver, but he’d be a very nice complementary piece for the right team.
26. Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia - I love linebackers who have great instincts -- like great ones do -- and Houston certainly fits that bill. He looks like the first guy on defense to recognize and react to every play. You can’t teach that.
27. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College - I like that he has started every game he has played, and I like his toughness. I’m not convinced that he has what it takes to be a left tackle in the pros, but he’ll have a spot on the line somewhere.
28. Rahim Moore, S, UCLA - He’s the top safety in the draft, and it really isn’t that close. He openly models his game after his idol, Ed Reed, and it shows. He’s the real deal.
29. Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor - This is a very deep draft for the defensive line, and Taylor just adds to that. He’s more solid than sensational, though he is quite strong against the run.
30. Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech - In a strong year for running backs Williams would not be a first round guy. This is a weak class, though, so he stands out as a solid performer. I like him but I don’t love him. If a team has a serious need, though, he could fit the bill.
31. Brandon Harris, CB, Miami - I’m not sure he’s a shutdown superstar guy, but he’s smart and effective, and he could be the kind of corner you don’t notice on the field. That’s a good thing at this position.
32. Titus Young, WR, Boise State - The Broncos deserve first round recognition, and though I’m not at all convinced Young will make the first round I really think he should. He is a big-play player, and he is really dangerous after the catch. A very solid second receiver.