If you haven't yet made your Super Bowl picks then you are probably getting more and more confused with every little bit of news and insight that you read. Allow me to add to that confusion. What follows is a collection of Super Bowl betting trends that apply to this year's game. As is almost always the case with trends there is something for everyone here regardless of your opinion. The best way to deal with that is to just embrace the ones that support your opinion, and pretend that the ones that don't never existed.
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1. Trying to figure out the whole Dwight Freeney situation? This might help. Both teams had two sacks in the Super Bowl last year. Before that, though, the team that had recorded the most sacks in the game had won 12 of the last 13 and were an impressive 8-3-2 ATS over that stretch. If Freeney can't play or isn't at full capacity then past history would indicate that could hurt the Colts.
2. Over the years there have been 18 teams that have scored 32 or more points in the Super Bowl. They have never lost when doing so. We know that both of these offenses can put up points in a big way. Indy exceeded that 32-point barrier five times during the season, though they haven't done it in their last five games. The Saints went over that mark five times in the first eight weeks of the season alone, though they have only pulled it off three times since. They did score 45 against Arizona to open the playoffs, though, so it is fresher in their minds. There are more questions on defense for both teams than offense, but each only allowed more than 32 once. Each time they allowed 34 points, and they both still won the games.
3. If you believe in college tradition then Drew Brees and the Saints get the edge in this game. With a win Brees would become the third quarterback from Purdue to win the Super Bowl. Len Dawson led the Chiefs to Super Bowl IV, and Bob Griese won Super Bowls VII and VIII. Brees would help Purdue tie Alabama for the most productive Super Bowl-winning QB college. Tennessee has only produced one winner - Peyton Manning himself. Score one for Brees' alma mater.
4. The Saints lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16 of the season in an ugly, uninspired outing. That could be the death of their Super Bowl hopes. There has never been a team that has lost to the Bucs in a season and gone on to win the Super Bowl.
5. For the second straight year we have a team losing their Super Bowl virginity in the big game - the Saints this year after the Cardinals last year. Being a first time Super Bowl team is not a good thing - first-timers have gone just 8-19 straight up, and 10-17 ATS.
6. The No. 1-seeded teams in both conferences have met eight previous times in the Super Bowl. The NFC team has won six of those games.
7. The Colts are a perfect 1-0 in Super Bowl games played in Miami. Of course, the Saints have never lost one played in Miami, either.
8. The Saints gave up almost 500 yards of total offense to the Vikings last time out. They need to bounce back well from their defensive woes. They typically have - the team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven in games following games in which they allowed more than 350 total yards. The Colts also allowed more than 350 yards last week. that's less positive for them - they have covered just one of their last five rebound games after doing so.
9. It's not a wonder that the Super Bowl total is massive and rising in this one - the Colts have gone ‘over’ in five of their last six games, while the Saints have gone ‘over’ in five of their last six playoff games, and they pushed the sixth. One important qualifier, though - the average total for the Colts over the last six has been 40.5, while this time out it will be around 56. Just two of the last 10 Super Bowls have gone ‘over’.
10. The favorite has won and covered each of the last six times that these two teams have met. That goes all the way back to 2000, though, and they haven't met since 2007, so there has been a lineup change or two on both sides over the course of this six game series.
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11. The Colts were able to come back from an 11-point deficit last time out against the Jets, but they had better not try it again this week. There have been 10 or more point gaps between the two teams in the Super Bowl in 39 games. The team that has had the big lead has won all but one of those games.
12. Finally, and most significant in the long-term, the team that has scored the most points in the Super Bowl has won every single game played.
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