2015 Super Bowl Betting Trends
by Trevor Whenham - 1/20/2015
With so much time between the championship games and the Super Bowl this year - and absolutely no reason to watch or pay attention to the Pro Bowl in between - we have the luxury of being able to look more closely at the Super Bowl matchup than we do any other game of the year. It's a good thing, too, in this case - it's easy to make a case that either team will dominate in this one, so handicappers have a lot of work ahead of them. To help them make the most of that work, here are some 2015 Super Bowl betting trends for both teams to help show the way to profits:
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New England Patriots
The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with winning records. They are, however, just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 playoff games. They have also failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Super Bowl appearances. This Super Bowl isn't on an ideal surface for them to reverse that trend - they are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass.
They are 10-8 ATS on the season but had not covered a spread in three straight games before they humiliated the Colts.
They are just 4-4 ATS away from home this year and just 5-3 straight up in those games. They have gone "over" the total in four of those eight road games but have been "under" the total in each of their last three.
They have gone over the total 11 times in 18 games, including in both playoff games.
The Seahawks are a very strong 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with winning records. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games - a distinct edge over the Patriots. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played on grass, so the surface in Arizona seems to suit them better than New England as well. They also tend to bounce back well from substandard games - they are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss.
The Seahawks had the identical straight up record to the Patriots - 14-4 overall, 9-1 at home, and 5-3 away from home. They were only slightly more profitable overall for bettors - 10-7-1 ATS compared to 10-8 ATS for the Pats. More of their success is back-loaded, though - they were 6-0-1 ATS in their seven games before their bizarre non-cover win over Green Bay.
The team was 4-4 ATS away from home this year, though they have covered their last three road spreads. They went over the total in half of their road games.
The over is just barely profitable for the Seahawks overall - they have gone over in 10 of 18 games. They have gone over in both playoff games, but they went over just once in their last six regular season contests.
Unlike New England, Seattle knows the stadium in Glendale that will be hosting the Super Bowl well - they have played there every year. This year they won and covered in a game that went over the total. That Dec. 21 game is all but meaningless, though - Arizona was so badly hit by injuries by that point that they hardly stood a chance.
There isn't much to be learned here. These teams have met only once since 2008. On Oct. 14, 2012, the Seahawks narrowly beat the Patriots 24-23 in Seattle. To get a sense of just how little that game really means now, you only need to consider one stat - New England's two passing touchdowns were caught by Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. Neither will pay much of a role here. Neither will Braylon Edwards nor Sidney Rice - two of the three touchdown scorers for the Seahawks. For what it's worth (not much), the Seahawks covered as 3.5-point underdogs that day, and the total went over 42.5.
Super Bowl history
This is Seattle's third Super Bowl appearance. We all remember last year when they humiliated Denver to easily cover the spread and to almost single-handedly go over the total. The only other time was in 2006 when they lost to the Steelers in Jerome Bettis' last game. They did not cover the spread as four-point underdogs. The first game went under the total, and last year's went over.
Tom Brady is making his sixth Super Bowl appearance - an all-time record. The Patriots are 3-2 straight up in those games but just 1-4 ATS. They are 0-4 ATS as favorites and have not covered the last four spreads. New England has been very kind to the sportsbooks on the totals - they have gone under the total in four of their five Super Bowl appearances in the Brady era, including the last three.
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