The problem with having two weeks between the championship round and the Super Bowl is that we have too much time to think. If the time frame was shorter then we’d just have time to handicap the game and make a bet. Now, though, we can handicap the game, then handicap it again, then read and hear what all the experts think, then look at the game from every possible angle, and so on. It’s enough to drive us all crazy. This won’t help -- here are seven Super Bowl betting trends that have emerged over the years in the big game that have, more or less, to do with the outcome of the game this year:
Sack attack - There are guys on both sides who are more than capable of chasing down the opposing quarterback and introducing him to the turf. There are also some concerns about the ability of both offensive lines to protect their quarterback -- these quarterbacks both get sacked more than their share of times.
The team that is able to dominate their opposing offensive line and get more sacks will be well positioned to win the game. In 14 of the last 15 games one team has had more sacks than the other. That team has won 12 of those 14 games, and has an 8-4-2 ATS record over that stretch.
Scoring explosions - Teams have scored 30 or more points in the Super Bowl 33 times. All but one of those teams has won the game -- Dallas scored 31 in Super Bowl XIII but lost because Pittsburgh tallied 35.
These two teams are known for their well-respected defenses, but if you feel like one can break through and put up some points then you should certainly back them.
The Steelers eclipsed the 30-point barrier four times, including against Baltimore in the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger was only at the helm for three of those four games, though -- the first came while he was still serving his suspension. Just one team -- New England -- scored more than 30 against them, and only four teams managed more than 20.
Green Bay surpassed 30 points seven times in 19 games. They also allowed more than 30 points just once, and that was also against New England.
Alma mater - When Aaron Rodgers takes his first snap it will be the fifth time that a player from Cal has played in the Super Bowl. He’ll be hoping that things go better than they have the other four times -- Vince Ferragamo and Joe Kapp both lost, and Craig Morton lost twice.
Big Ben is the only representative both of Miami of Ohio and the MAC, so both team and conference have a perfect record heading into this game. The power of the alma mater is fully in Pittsburgh’s corner.
Heisman Trophy glory - We have heard a lot about how many Heisman winners have gone on to underwhelming or non-existent pro careers. Despite that, there have been a solid number of guys who won the Heisman and then went on to hoist the Super Bowl. In fact, seven guys have done it to date.
Charles Woodson, who won the trophy in 1997 for Michigan, has a chance to be the eighth. The only other Heisman winner in the Super Bowl era from Michigan was Desmond Howard. He played in one Super Bowl -- also for Green Bay -- and was named MVP. So, a Heisman winner from Michigan has never lost the Super Bowl. There’s a trend for you.
No. 6 - The Green Bay Packers are favored in this game despite coming into the playoffs as a No. 6 seed in the NFC. Being a No. 6 and making it this far seems remarkable -- it means winning three road games against teams that likely have better records. It’s so tough, in fact, that it has only happened once before. That team? Pittsburgh in 2005. That means that No. 6 seeds have a perfect record in the Super Bowl both straight up and against the Super Bowl point spread.
The money is in the ‘under’ - Both of these teams are known for strong defenses, and that has shown up on the totals all year -- you could have made a profit during the regular season by betting the ‘under’ in every game for both teams.
Pittsburgh went ‘under’ nine times in 16 games, while Green Bay went ‘under’ in 10 games. Things changed a bit in the playoffs, though -- at least for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have gone ‘over’ in both of their games. Green Bay has gone ‘under’ in two of their three.
Against the spread - Both of these teams have been very kind to bettors this season. Including the playoffs the Packers are 12-7 ATS, while the Steelers are 12-6 ATS. Green Bay has covered three in a row and five of their last six, while the Steelers have covered four straight and six of the last seven. One team is going to end a streak of success. This would be a lot more helpful if I could tell you with certainty which one that would be.
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