There is no shortage of information out there about the Super Bowl. In fact, you can hardly avoid the endless Super Bowl coverage in the media over these two weeks before the game is played.
Most of it is just noise. To help you sort through the avalanche of information and statistics you will be besieged with, here are some Super Bowl betting trends that are interesting and potentially useful:
The Seahawks are just 1-1 ATS in the playoffs so far. They beat New Orleans by just eight as 10-point favorites in their first game. They are 12-6 ATS on the season and a strong 6-2 ATS away from Seattle. They are likely to be a slight underdog at kickoff. They were not favored just once, and they narrowly covered — they lost by two at San Francisco while getting 2.5 points.
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Seattle rises to the occasion against tough opponents — they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with winning records. They have also carried momentum forward well — they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. At 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall they have long been a reliable team to bet on.
The Seahawks have been even more reliable on totals. They have gone “under” in each of their last seven games. They have also gone under in each of their last six against teams with winning records.
Seattle has already played in MetLife Stadium once this year. In Week 15 they easily covered the spread as 9.5-point favorites against the Giants, pitching a shutout to win 23-0. The game obviously went way under the total of 43.5.
Denver is also just 1-1 ATS in these playoffs. They beat San Diego by only a touchdown while favored by eight points. They were only slightly less profitable on the season than the Seahawks with a mark of 11-5-1 ATS. They are likely to be small favorites at kickoff. That will be a new experience for them — they were favored by at least 3.5 points in 17 of their 18 games. The lone exception was at New England where they lost in overtime as one-point underdogs.
The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
The Broncos have gone under the total in their last five games and seven of their last 10. They opened the season by going “over” the total eight straight times, so this is a definite reversal of trend. They have gone over the total 24 times in their last 31 games against teams with a winning record.
Denver also got a sneak preview of MetLife Stadium this year. Peyton and his Broncos were favored by 3.5 in the battle of the Mannings in Week 2, and they won 41-23.
These teams rarely play, and little can be learned from past meetings. Their last two showdowns were in 2010 and 2006, so basically nothing is the same with either team now as it was then. Denver covered the spread in the last meeting and three of the last four, for what it is worth. They did play this preseason in Seattle, with the Seahawks cruising to a 40-10 victory. Given Peyton Manning’s disdain for the preseason, though, that result is beyond meaningless.
Super Bowl history
Seattle has only been in the biggest of games once before. In 2006 they lost 21-10 to the Steelers in a game most known for being Jerome Bettis’s last. The Seahawks were a four-point underdog.
Denver is making their seventh appearance in the Super Bowl. They lost in 1976, 1987, 1988 and 1990 and then won in 1998 and 1999. The last five appearances featured John Elway at the controls.
Besides the Giants, both teams played Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. Denver was 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS. They lost to the Colts as favorites and didn’t cover against the Jaguars as massive 26.5-point favorites. Seattle had the same 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS records, also losing to Indianapolis and failing to cover as 11-point favorites against the Titans.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham