For sports bettors, this time of year is about just one thing — the Super Bowl. To get you ready for the game, here is a compilation of many different Super Bowl betting trends. There are more trends here than you could ever need, but somewhere in here could be the answer to effectively handicapping the game. You just have to find it:
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are 2-0 against the spread in the playoffs this year and 3-1 ATS in the last two years. Prior to that they had an eight-year playoff drought. In playoff games where they are favored, but by five points or fewer — as is likely to be the case here — they are 2-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this year.
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San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning record, and the Niners are an impressive 25-11-1 ATS in the 37 games of the Harbaugh era. They carry momentum forward well — they are 19-7-1 ATS in games following outings in which they had 350 or more total yards and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a passing performance of 250 or more yards.
The last six games San Francisco has played have all gone “over” the total, and so have the last five games against teams with winning records. They have gone over in five of their last six following a game in which they had an ATS win.
During the regular season, San Francisco was actually a better team away from home (5-3 ATS) than at home (4-4 ATS), so traveling to New Orleans for this game won’t be a concern. They played in New Orleans this year and won by 10 points as one-point favorites.
The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games and 8-4 ATS in the playoffs during the Harbaugh and Flacco era. They have covered each of their last three spreads as playoff underdogs, including their last two games this year.
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and also 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record. Their passing success against the Patriots may not be a good thing, though — they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine following a passing game of 250 yards or more. However, if their performance is balanced offensively then it’s not as bad — they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following performances of 350 yards of offense or more.
Four of Baltimore’s last five games have gone “under” the total, and four of their last five playoff games have as well, including two of three this year. Baltimore has gone under the total in four of their last five against teams with winning records.
During the regular season, Baltimore was a losing ATS team regardless of where they played. They were 3-5 ATS at home, and only slightly better at 3-4-1 ATS on the road. They were 3-6 ATS on artificial surfaces.
The Harbaugh brothers have only met once. Baltimore was favored by 3.5 points at home and won, 16-6, in November of 2011. The teams have met just three times in the last 16 years. Baltimore has covered two of the three games. The last two games have gone under the total.
Super Bowl history
One of these teams is going to lose the Super Bowl. Whichever franchise it is will suffer their first loss in the biggest of games. The streak is more impressive for the Niners, though — they have won five in a row, while Baltimore has won their only appearance.
The Ravens need to overcome the performance of their conference lately. The AFC has lost the last three Super Bowls and four of the last five.
The teams only played two common opponents this year — the Giants and the Patriots. Baltimore won both games. A 19-point win over the Giants was an easy cover, but the 31-30 win over the Patriots wasn’t enough to cover the 2.5-point spread. The 49ers were very impressive beating the Patriots in Foxboro as four-point underdogs. Against the Giants, though, they had perhaps their worst game of the season — a 26-3 loss they didn’t show up for.
Strength of schedule
The Niners had the better record — 11-4-1 compared to 10-6 for the Ravens. San Francisco did it against a slightly weaker schedule, though. San Francisco’s opponents had a win percentage of .5199 this season, while the Ravens’ opponents were at .5353. Both of those schedules were among the seven toughest in the league, though, so San Francisco’s accomplishments aren’t really lessened.
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