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Every year the sportsbooks offer more and more Super Bowl props for bettors to play. There are a couple of good reasons for this - the public love them, and they are, for the most part, a sucker's bet. The public blindly pours money into them and the books make a fortune because of the increased juice. Luckily, I'm a bit of a sucker, so I am of the belief that there can be value found in some of the propositions if you look hard enough. Hey, an astute handicapper has a better chance playing these than winning one of those Super Bowl squares pools. Here are 15 Super Bowl proposition bets that jumped out at me on first glance as having potential value (all odds taken from Bodog):
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First Patriots score - TD -190, Field goal or safety +155 - It seems most logical that the Pats will try to make a statement by scoring early. Given the price, though, it seems like decent value to bet that the Giants will be able to make a solid early stand bolstered by a fresh pass rush and hold New England to just a field goal.
Team to get first first down - New York +110, New England -140 - This is a different way to potentially extract value from the coin flip. If you are going to bet that the Giants will win the toss then you know that they will receive, so it seems like a reasonable bet that they will get a first down, and +110 is a lot nicer than -105.
First offense to cross 50-yard line - New York +120, New England -150 - Again, if you think that the Giants will win the toss you might like the better price by risking that they will get to midfield with their first possession.
First team to call a timeout - New York -120, New England -110 - It seems like a certainty that Manning will be more flustered than Brady, so I would be willing to bet that he will be forced to call a timeout to get himself under control first.
Will the game ever be tied after first score? - yes +130, no -160 - The Giants have been tied four times in three playoff games, and the Pats have had two tied scores in their two games. At +130 it seems worth a gamble that the teams will tie it up at some point here.
Which team will record the first sack? - New York +120, New England -150. Brady is tough to sack, but the Giants live and die by the pass rush, so they will be firing on all cylinders. It's worth a shot that they will succeed at the price.
Team to have most first downs in first quarter - New York (+2 -155), New England (-2, +125) - My vision of the game definitely has the Patriots settling down faster than the Giants and being more efficient early. That means that their price provides reasonable value here.
Double result - Giants win first half, Patriots win game - 5/1 - I am firm in my belief that the Patriots will win the game. There is a decent chance, though, that the Giants will take an early lead before the Patriots start firing. That's what happened last time the teams met, and at 5/1 it might be worth betting it will again. That's much more attractive than betting that the Pats will win the first half and the game - the odds there are 2/9.
Exact number of points scored by New York - 4 - 2000/1 - It is very unlikely that this will happen, but at this price I might put down a buck or two just in case it did happen. That would be three lifetimes worth of bragging rights.
Eli Manning's first pass will be? - complete 1/2, incomplete 8/5 - I think Manning will struggle early because the New England defense will be prepared and he will be overwhelmed by the setting. Given that, I love the price for an incompletion.
Will Brandon Jacobs score a touchdown? - yes +110, no -140 - Jacobs has scored in four of his last five games, including each playoff game. I'd be willing to bet that he will score here again at the price.
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? - yes +120, no -150 - Brady looked very shaky at times against San Diego. I'll take the juicy price to bet that he will have a non-Brady moment during this game and throw an interception, too. This is especially a good chance if the Giants' pass rush is working.
Will Randy Moss score two or more touchdowns? - yes +250, no -325 - Moss has not been good in the playoffs. I think he'll be motivated to change that. Moss has eight multi-touchdown games, including the last time he played the Giants. At this price I will happily risk that he will do it again. The conditions will be perfect for his success.
Concluding this NFL commentary check out Doc's NFL Europa Betting page. Our Eliminator Pools page is also must read when studding the NFL. When it comes to betting NFL our NFL Betting tips for Preseason Football feature is a must for any NFL fan. Keep abreast of all the NFL topics as well as free picks and predictions on Doc's home page - check it out after reading this article.
Will Wes Welker score a touchdown? - yes +105, no -135 - Welker has a touchdown in each of the playoff games. He's the most reliable target Brady has, and he will see lots of action on his short routes if the Giants can pass rush effectively. That will see him get the ball a lot, and could see him score. I'll bet on the positive price.
Stephen Gostkowski total points o/u 8.5 - over +110, under -140 - The last time the teams played the Pats kicker had 12 points. I don't expect the offense to be any less effective, so I could certainly see him go over again. The price is right.