The way I see it, I spent at least $80 on crappy movies last year - both renting and going to the theatre. I owe it too myself to try to win that back on the Oscars. Even though Oscar Awards betting seems like a whimsically, off-the-cuff thing to do that doesn't mean that there isn't decent value and plenty of money to be made.

The 78th Academy Awards will be held at 8 p.m. EST on March 5 at Hollywood's Kodak Theatre and hosted by Jon Stewart. The Oscars are voted on by specific professionals from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This group includes actors, directors and writers, and has an eligible voting membership of nearly 5,800.

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Since there's really not much of a way to quantitatively evaluate the nominees, the oddsmakers can only base their lines on "the word on the street." The result is numbers that are drastically skewed towards the favorites. That leaves the books vulnerable to some big hits if any upsets occur, and like the NCAA Tournament or WWE Raw there's always going to be upsets.

Here's a breakdown of the correlation between the winners of the Golden Globes and the winners of the Academy Awards. You'll notice that in three of the five listed categories, the victors only matched up about 50 percent of the time.

(Note: at the Golden Globes, the best actor and best actress categories are split into two groups - drama and comedy.)

Best Picture: 17 of the last 21 Globe winners also won the Oscar
Best Actor: 12 of 21 winners matched
Best Actress: 16 of 21
Best Supporting Actor: 11 of 21
Best Supporting Actress: 10 of 21

For an example of the unpredictability of Oscar voting, just look at last year's event. Of the six major categories, only Jamie Foxx (actor), Clint Eastwood (director) and Hilary Swank (actress) swept both award shows. That meant that anyone who let it ride on Cate Blanchett (supporting actress) or "Million Dollar Baby" (picture) to win Oscars may have earned a tidy profit.

Shopping for lines is always important, but with Oscar Awards betting it's absolutely vital. Honestly, there are some just horrendous numbers out there. The odds I've used for my breakdowns came from Nine Sportsbook and Betcom.

Here's a preview of the 78th Academy Awards and advice for Oscars Awards betting:

Best Actor
Favorite: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote" (-450)
Dark horse: Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk The Line" (+900)
Golden Globe winner: Hoffman (Drama) and Phoenix (Musical/Comedy)
Skinny: Hoffman was absolutely brilliant in his portrayal of controversial writer Truman Capote, and is a strong frontrunner. Phoenix had the early buzz and inside track last fall, but Hoffman and Heath Ledger (+550) have edged ahead. Phoenix is still an intriguing prospect at those odds, but has to work against the fact that Foxx won last year for the same type of role and it's unlikely that the Academy will again draw from that well.

Best Actress
Favorite: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk The Line" (-450)
Dark horse: Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica" (+300)
Golden Globe winner: Huffman (Drama) and Witherspoon (Musical/Comedy)
Skinny: I have a feeling that this is going to be the shocker of the night. Witherspoon did her own vocals, and gave a great performance as June Carter. However, she could also defer to Phoenix in her picture, and wasn't responsible for carrying her film in the way that the other women did. Judi Dench ("Mrs. Henderson Presents") or Charlize Theron ("North Country") are definitely worthy of a 10-dollar bet since they're both paying out at between 30-to-1 and 40-to-1.

Best Supporting Actor
Favorite: Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man" (-225)
Dark horse: George Clooney, "Syriana" (+300)
Golden Globe winner: Clooney
Skinny: Giamatti was snubbed last year for "Sideways", so this would almost be like a make-up call. Not that he wouldn't have earned the award for his portrayal of Joe Gould, but don't think that the Academy doesn't feel a little remorse. Clooney is trying to pull the rare double of winning as both an actor and director, but I don't see it happening. Jake Gyllenhaal (+1000) is also worth a look at those odds.

Best Supporting Actress
Favorite: Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener" (-250)
Dark horse: Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain" (+600)
Golden Globe winner: Weisz
Skinny: Amy Adams (+300) also garners consideration for her work in "Junebug", but I went with Williams as the dark horse because her line offers better value. The boys were the talk of Tinsletown for their work on "Brokeback", but one of the films great tragedies involves how the sordid love affair affects the women that are left behind. At least that's what I heard.

Best Director
Favorite: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain" (-1000)
Dark horse: Paul Haggis, "Crash" (+2000)
Golden Globe winner: Lee
Skinny: Honestly, how hard is it to get two male actors to make out in Hollywood? Think what you want about the movie, but Ang Lee was daring and decisive in crafting the year's most talked-about film.

Best Picture
Favorite: "Brokeback Mountain" (-600)
Dark horse: "Crash" (+600)
Golden Globe winner: "Brokeback Mountain"
Skinny: Terrible odds: Eric Cartman called it when he said that independent films are "always about gay cowboys eating pudding."

Touché.

The odds don't display it because of "Crash's" upset over "Brokeback" at the Screen Actors Guild awards last month. However, if "Brokeback Mountain" doesn't win for Best Picture it would have to be considered a colossal upset.

That's it for my Oscars Awards betting preview. Good night, and good luck.

Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check out his Insider Page here.

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