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It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that bigger than 3-team parlays should do very well for books but in fact we don’t hold this much. It is hard to split the action on one game and it is impossible to evenly split the action in parlays involving multiple games. We often see the same picks over and over in different parlays and so the higher juice is simply to cover the risk of having to pay out the occasional very large bet. Any bookmaker that has had a good weekend ruined by a big 1000/1 payout on a parlay knows the feeling and would argue that the juice isn’t high enough! Remember that these odds are just the Vegas standard and that there a wide range of different payout tables. Benefits to the Bettor Now that the math is out of the way, let’s talk a little about how parlay bets can benefit the bettor. First off, there are always certain games where you hear people say things like “If they can keep the score low, they have a chance at winning”, or “they need to score at least 30 points to really have a shot”. Certain games have a slight correlation between the spread and total and betting these situations in a parlay can be a big advantage to bettors. This is especially true of very large spreads. On a college football game where the spread is –40 and the total is 51, it is very difficult for the favorite to cover and have the total still be Under. Granted, 42-0 or 49-0 gets it done, but if the dog even scores just a Field Goal the favorite must score 44 points to cover, but cannot score more than 48 points or the total goes over, a very limited range to win such a parlay. You can virtually remove this option from the 4 possible parlays and are now left with a situation where the payoff is 2.6/1 for just 2/1 odds against, a +30% advantage. In fact, if you play favorite/over or dog/under in situations where the spread is 40% or more of the total, you should come out ahead. These are known as correlated parlays and many books won’t take them for obvious reasons but it never hurts to ask. A Quick Note on Last Week’s Action It was a good weekend for bettors, mostly because it wasn’t a great weekend for home dogs (0-7-1 ATS). In other words, it was probably a great weekend to not follow my advice! Anyways, now that the holidays have officially kicked off, however, we can all look forward to lots of great football and plenty of turkey leftovers! Hope you and yours have a safe and happy holiday. The enjoyment of your wagering experience with us is my number one priority. Should you have any questions, concerns, or comments, I will personally ensure you are satisfied with your BoDog experience. Good luck with your wagers! Rob Gillespie President Read Gillespie's recent article on money management skills. |
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