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Time was when a horse won the Belmont Stakes, no matter what the distance, Esposito's Tavern, a watering hole near the track, held their own tradition to celebrate the winner of the race; they'd paint their picket fence the color of the silks of the winning horse. Now the Tavern is a church and the picket fence is peeling.
This year the 137th running of the $1 million Belmont Stakes (Gr. 1) is set for Saturday, June 11, at Belmont Park, and is perhaps better known for the distance of the race more than the libation, Belmont Breeze, invented by master mixologist Dale DeGroff.
At Doc's Sports we play the ponies for the excitement (and to tell everyone we were right) and drink Belmont Breeze's once a year. In Elmont, NY, a typical Belmont Breeze lasts about as long as an average Belmont Stakes race, 2:29, in the Impaler's sweaty mitts; whether the remaining contents are thrown in the air out of jubilation (last year's improbable win by 36-1 Birdstone over heavily favored Smarty Jones) or poured on our degenerate neighbor clutching his pari-mutuel tickets (in 1997 when Touch Gold crossed the wire first in the Belmont, three-quarters of a length ahead of wannabe Triple Crown winner Silver Charm) in the agony of defeat, each year we are on our sixth Belmont Breeze by post time and each year the cup is empty by the end of this lengthy race.
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The Belmont Stakes, known as the "Test of Champions", is the third leg of the Triple Crown--even if there is not a potential Triple Crown winner in the field this year. It is called the Test of Champions in part because of the grueling length of the race:
1 ½ miles, or 12 furlongs. The fact that the Belmont distance is the longest for the Triple Crown series becomes an obsession with both handicappers and punters.
But how important is distance when handicapping the Belmont Stakes? Well the Belmont distance is important but not necessarily the sole tool for picking the winner of this race; but it is definitely useful to look at before laying $2 on the nose of a 50-1 horse.
By Belmont week, the field has been substantially culled and as a rule is smaller than the previous two races. The sand track features huge sweeping turns and is wide enough to land an airplane, so traffic that you have at Churchill Downs and Pimlico is usually not a problem. Since the horses are coming off two tough races, except for a few fresh horses just entering the series, the ability of the horses to handle extra distance can be tough to gauge. So you need to look at the Belmont distance as just that, 1 ½ miles, nothing more and nothing less.
It is easy enough to look at the Preakness and say if it had been two furlongs longer Afleet Alex would have faded. Or just as easy to say if the Kentucky Derby was two furlongs shorter Giacomo would not have won. But each race is unique and it is impossible to use a past performance on dirt at 1 3/16 miles and then apply that same logic to a race two weeks later that is 1 ½ miles and run on sand. Two different lengths and two different surfaces equal two different races. Simple.
Casual observers of Thoroughbred racing, however, believe that the Belmont Stakes favors closers; horses of Giacomo and Closing Argument's ilk that rally from far back. While sometimes true, as with last year's winner Nick Zito-trained Birdstone, it is the exception that proves the rule. Rather, you want a horse with good tactical speed that stalks just off the pace and still has enough stamina to kick in down the lane to cross the wire first.
Stamina is very important (which is why distance is often looked at as a key to picking a Belmont Stakes winner), especially when running on sand rather than dirt. And you can figure out a horse's stamina by looking at its pedigree; this is important because horses are being asked to run a longer race. Even worse for gamblers, horses are asked to do something many of them have not done before, run a 1-1/2 miles.
To help analyze how a horse will do at this distance, look at a horse's dosage index. Look at the Stamina Wing (last two positions) in a horse's dosage profile and if it is 4.0 or less and combined with perhaps a Belmont winner or two in its pedigree you might have more substantial information than trying to find the closer in the field of 11. For instance, Birdstone's dosage profile was 3-4-9-0-2, you'll notice how the 0-2 jumps out as meeting the criterion of below 4.0 on his Stamina Wing.
So while it is hard to ignore the 1-½ mile distance at Belmont, remember that it is the horse and jockey that matters rather than the distance alone. There have been times at Belmont that 1-½ miles did not matter a lick.
It did not matter in 1973 when the 2-horse, Secretariat, set not only the Belmont Stake's track record, but the world wide record for a 1 ½ race in an unparalleled 2:24 winning by an astounding 31 lengths. Distance did not matter in 1977 when Seattle Slew dominated the race, winning by four lengths over Cruguet. Distance did not matter in 1943 when Count Fleet won the race in 2:28-1/5 a full 2/5 faster than War Admiral. Distance did not matter in 1937 when War Admiral stumbled out of the gate, injuring his leg, and went on to win by four lengths over Brooklyn in 2:28 3/5. And while these were not your run of the mill horses, they proved that the race is not always to the swift but it is a damned good bet. And believe it or not, last year's winner, Birdstone, hardly confused with the likes of War Admiral and Count Fleet, beat both of those horses time when he won in 2:27-2/5!
Today the Belmont Stakes is characterized as a distance race that can make or break a horse, owner and jockey's Triple Crown run. However, at times in its long history, this race was even a furlong longer than the race we see now. The Belmont Stakes has been run at various distances. >From 1867 to 1873 it was 1 5/8 miles; from 1874 to 1889 it was 1 1/2 miles; from 1890 through 1892, and in 1895, it was held at 1 1/4 miles; from 1896 through 1925 it was 1 5/8 miles. Since moving to Elmont, NY in 1925, the Belmont Stakes was shortened once again to 1 1/2 miles.
In 1997 Belmont underwent renovations to uplift the sagging façade of the bucolic racecourse. Eager to include new traditions for the new facelift, Belmont replaced the Esposito's Tavern paint job with one of their own. In the stand-ease area, sets of four-foot cast iron horses cum jockeys were added. After the race, the jockey (rather than the picket fence) is painted with the colors of the winning horse. While the paint job is perfect, it does not carry the same joy as drunks painting a picket fence blue and white on the day Secretariat shattered the 1-½ by going the distance faster than anyone before or after him.
On Friday we'll look at winning betting strategies for the 137th running of the Belmont Stakes before taking residence in Saratoga for the month of August.