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The Breeders' Cup is just a few days away and I can hardly contain myself. The excitement levels for Saturday could only be higher for me if Michigan were playing Ohio State instead of Minnesota on the same day. In the process of writing thousands of words and reading millions in preparation for racing's biggest weekend, there have been a few thoughts, tips and ideas that have jumped out at me but haven't fit anywhere else. I'll throw them all down here in hopes that they are useful as you are getting ready to make your bets and win big:

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1. The Weather. It could be ugly at Monmouth this weekend. The forecast calls for rain all week, with temperatures too low to significantly dry out the tracks in a hurry if the rain lets up. That means that we are quite possibly going to have to deal with an off track. It's important, then, to know how Monmouth may react if the track is less than perfect. In dirt sprint stakes and allowances, 40 percent of races on a good track are won by frontrunners. That number jumps all the way up to 58 percent when the track is rated muddy, and 49 percent when it is sloppy. Fewer horses rally when far back when the track is off as well. The worse the track is, the harder you will want to look for a horse that will be on or near the lead.

The effects of the mud aren't nearly as severe in dirt routes. The same 40 percent of races were won on the front end on good tracks, but that only goes up to 42 percent when it is muddy. There is a good chance that the public will overcompensate for the conditions in the longer dirt races if the weather is bad. On the turf the effects of the rain are particularly pronounced. Thirty percent of races on good turf were wired, but just nine percent on soft turf. The sample size is just five for turf stakes on yielding turf, but the frontrunner won three of them, so the impact is obvious. It was the stalkers that benefited from the deterioration of the turf - they were almost twice as likely to win on soft turf than they were on good. Combining these statistics with the particular tendencies and preferences of the individual runners will give you a good edge on race day no matter what the weather is.

2. Synthetic surfaces. We've been dealing with synthetic surfaces for a few years now, but they have never been as big of a factor as they are now. With all of the major tracks in California going synthetic, along with Woodbine, Keeneland, Turfway, Arlington and others, more and more horses have run prep races on the rubber, and a frustrating number of runners have exclusively toiled on it. The surface is too new for us to know very much about how it works and the real impact of it. Every surface reacts differently, and the transition from each different synthetic surface to the dirt at Monmouth will be unique and hard to predict. That's enough whining, because there is nothing we can do about it other than deal with it. It's important, though, to be very aware of the surfaces horses have run on and what that means. A horse that posts a decidedly slow time at Del Mar, for example, gets a pass, while a slow time at Woodbine is less acceptable. It's also important to compare the Beyer numbers a horse earned on dirt and compare those to the group of Beyer's earned on synthetic. This can give you a quick snapshot of how the horse might like the dirt of Monmouth.

3. The New Exotics. The exotics are always the best part of Breeders' Cup day, and they are especially intriguing this year with the new additions to the menu. There will be a 10-cent superfecta available on every race on both Friday and Saturday, so you can get a shot at a big payoff for a small investment. You can have another shot at a big payoff at a small price with the 50-cent Pick 5 that will be available on the first five races of the day each day starting Wednesday. There will be a carryover if the pot isn't claimed each day, so the payoff on Saturday could be especially large. There will also be two new daily doubles. One will link Friday's Filly and Mare Sprint to Saturday's Sprint, and the other will link the Dirt Mile on Friday to the Mile on Saturday. There are going to be all sorts of intriguing betting options on the day, and it only makes sense to evaluate them to see which ones fit best with your picks. There's more than one way to strike it rich.

After you finish this feature be sure to view Doc's Kentucky Derby expert picks page. Our Belmont Stakes gambling odds page is also must read when studding horse racing. When it comes to betting the horses our Preakness stakes betting odds feature is a must for any horse racing fan. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on horse racing handicapping.

4. My Favorite Longshot. Unlike last year where several longshots struck my fancy, I find myself drawn more to horses in the 8/1 to 12/1 range than I am to the bigger prices this year. There is one horse that keeps haunting me, though. I'm not sure that she's a winner, but I can't help thinking that she's worth a look and that she could grab at least a piece and maybe more. I'm speaking of Smarty Deb in the Juvenile Fillies. The race is fairly wide open, and she isn't nearly as outclassed as she may look. Sure, she's run way out of the limelight at Emerald Downs. She's unbeaten in four races, though. She also has beaten the boys, which no other horse can claim. She's improved every time out, her times and Beyer's are competitive, she's done two turns, and she holds her speed well down the stretch. At 30/1 in the morning line I am sure going to find a way to include her somewhere in my play of this race.