2023 Denver Nuggets Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert NBA Picks
The Denver Nuggets won their first championship after 47 seasons in the NBA, thanks to the best record in the Western Conference and a dominating 16-4 record in the postseason. Nikola Jokic finally had a healthy supporting cast, and the 2-time MVP winner got some postseason success and a Finals MVP award under his belt. The championship hangover could always catch up to them, but there is no reason to doubt that the Nuggets have a chance to repeat as NBA champions.
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Denver Nuggets Offseason Recap
If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it. There is no real pressure for the Nuggets to undergo any kind of roster overhaul, as they clearly have a winning scheme currently in Denver. However, sometimes things are out of your control, as their critical sixth man Bruce Brown declined his option in favor of a move to the Pacers. Brown scored 12.0 PPG in the postseason, with a .510 Field goal percentage. His valuable minutes off the bench will be missed, and the Nuggets will rely on some of their depth talents to step up in his absence. Reggie Jackson came in late last season and has since signed an extension in Denver, but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year-old guard can be. The Nuggets also picked up Justin Holiday. And while Holiday may not be the same caliber as his brother Jrue, he is more than capable of playing valuable minutes in the Nuggets backcourt.
Denver Nuggets Season Expectations
While it will be difficult to match last year’s playoff success, the Nuggets will be satisfied with nothing short of defending their crown. Jokic alone is capable of leading this team to a deep playoff run. However, now that Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. have all had time to heal up their injuries, this Nuggets squad is truly a force to be reckoned with. Jokic averaged almost a triple double last season, scoring 24.5 PPG (On 63.2% from the floor), 11.8 Rebounds, and 9.8 Assists. The Serbian 7-footer can move the ball and hit shots like no other big man in the league. Canadian superstar Murray is also critical to the Nuggets success, as without consistent guard play Jokic struggles to get going down low. Murray showed no signs of rust after spending a season and a half on the sidelines, posting 20.0 PPG and a career high 6.2 Assists. While the rest of the contenders are tuning up their rosters, the Nuggets are rightfully confident their current squad has what it takes to make another deep playoff run.
Denver Nuggets Schedule Breakdown
After opening up the season hosting LeBron James and the Lakers, the Nuggets play 14 of their next 22 games on the road. A tired Jokic could be tempted to sit some of these games out, but the new resting policy may discourage him from doing so. After their brutal run of road games, the Nuggets get to spend the holiday period in Denver, with 8 of their 10 games starting on Christmas Day being played in Denver. It is a blessing and a curse for the Nuggets to have so many long road trips and lengthy home stands, as it will cut down on their traveling, but will result in weeks away from their families.
Denver Nuggets Odds
For many months, the Nuggets were the favorites to lift the NBA title, hovering at +400 odds. However, the Bucks recent trade for Damian Lillard has seen them overtake top spot, and the Nuggets slide down to +550 on some books. While the upgrades on the Suns and Bucks rosters are certainly daunting, this Nuggets team has what it takes to still come out on top. Their proven playoff pedigree is hard to come by in the NBA, and they will lean on that experience when the going gets tough this season.
Last season, the Nuggets were my top pick to not only win the West, but the NBA championship. I said “Holding -130 odds to win the division and +650 to be the #1 overall seed in the West, the Nuggets are a must bet this upcoming season.” and “Grab the valuable +1800 odds for the Nuggets to win the championship, and sit back and watch this Nuggets team finally find their groove.” in October 2022. The odds are far worse this season, as they are coming in with +150 odds to be the number 1 seed, and +600 odds to win the championship, but they are still a solid look. It is difficult to find the bonafide superstar, the supporting cast, and winning mentality needed to lift a trophy in the NBA, and there is no doubt the Nuggets have those puzzle pieces. In the in-season tournament, the Nuggets find themselves in a tough group, against the Clippers, Mavericks, Pelicans, and Rockets, and are +170 to emerge on top. It will likely take them winning all 4, or at least 3/4 to do so, but the odds available don’t offer enough value for the defending champions to do so.
Denver Nuggets Predictions
Unlike last season, the Nuggets are not my top pick to win the championship. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see them repeat, it felt as though the job was done for Jokic and the Nuggets. While that is a high pedigree to expect from them, I struggle to believe they will come out with the same ferocity this season. A slow start will see the oddsmakers overreact and modify their title odds too drastically. I expect the Nuggets to be in the +1000 range by mid December and advise you to wait for the better price before locking in this bet. A title bet on any of the heavy favorites is not ideal at this stage of the season, as their odds are unlikely to shrink any further, and we must tie up the bankroll for 8+ months. Instead, I’ll gladly take Under 52.5 Wins on the Nuggets in the regular season. They were lucky to stay healthy last year, as no one in their top 6 were injured for any long stretches, yet they still got only 53 wins. Expecting the same stroke of good health for a relatively shallow roster is too much to ask for, and I expect the Nuggets to finish 48-34 this season. The Under is the best bet for the regular season, and I’d hold off on any title bets until the price improves in the coming months.
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