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Super Bowl First Half Betting
by T.O. Whenham - 1/31/2011

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Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers

There is no shortage of ways to bet on the Super Bowl. One of the less appreciated but certainly compelling ways to do so is Super Bowl first half betting. Whether you decide to bet on sides or totals in the first half, these bets offer you a different way to look at the game, and another way to potentially find some value. Value is so hard to find in this game that it pays to look in as many places as you can. Here are six things to consider if you are thinking about betting on the first half:

What factor will nerves be? - The first half -- and especially the first quarter -- of the Super Bowl are almost certain to be affected by nerves. The players have been playing to get to this game their whole lives, and thinking about nothing else for two weeks.

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The pre-game festivities will be grand and endless. By the time the game actually kicks off the magnitude of the moment will be weighing heavily on every player. It will quite possibly be less for the Steelers than the Packers because a lot of these players have been here twice before. Still, even the most hardened Steelers’ player is going to have an extra lump in his throat the first time he hits the field.

That can impact the flow of the game early on, and that could cause teams to perform below their overall abilities. On the other hand, the public could expect that to happen, so the value could be on the ‘over’ more than it normally is on totals in big games.

Will noise have an impact? - This will be a massive crowd for the game, and that crowd should be fired up. The building can sound very loud because there will be fans of both teams in attendance and there should be significant noise when both offenses are on the field. That noise is likely to be louder as the game starts -- and after big plays. Could that noise have an impact on first half production?

Which Pittsburgh team will show up? - Against the Ravens, the Steelers were almost completely invisible in the first half. They fell way behind, and then had to fight back in the second half to survive. The next week against the Jets they came out of the gates on fire, and then took much of the second half off to make the game much closer than it looked like it was going to be.

The play of the Steelers in the first half will obviously have a big impact on the outcome of any first half bets, so you need to get inside the heads of the team before you make your Super Bowl picks on the side or the total.

How hard will Green Bay try to establish the run? - Most people seem to have a sense that the Packers will struggle to run against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has an incredible run defense, and though Green Bay has been running better lately they are far from dominating.

Because of that problem some theorize that Green Bay will rely more heavily on their passing game and not worry about the run, while others suggest that Green Bay will work hard early on to set up their run and assert their authority. If they do try to establish the run and don’t have a lot of initial success you also have to wonder how long they will stick with it. If Green Bay does try to run, they aren’t going to be able to move the ball as quickly and won’t likely score as much, so what you think they are going to do will have an impact on both sides and totals in the first half.

What line makes the most sense? - The standard first half line is the one that will be getting most of the attention here. There are several different alternate lines that will be available, though, and this could be one of the better places for you to find value on the game if you have a strong opinion of how things turn out.

You can adjust the line modestly, or you can make a very aggressive change to the numbers depending upon what you think. With the alternate lines it is especially important to shop around for the number that works best for you.

Does the first half make the most sense? - Betting on the first half can be very tempting. You need to be sure, though, that making this bet is more logical and more financially sound than other alternatives -- betting on the whole game or betting on Super Bowl props, for example.

First half bets are tougher than others to handicap well because what the score is at the half doesn’t ultimately matter, so you need to make sure that you have very solid value before you take the plunge.

Doc’s Sports’ Super Bowl content is the best on the Internet and we will dissect the game from every possible angle, from Betting the Super Bowl Coin Toss to Super Bowl Squares Probability. We also offer expert Super Bowl picks from seven different handicappers (for only $25 for each NFL handicapper) and our expert team will be providing not only the side and total for the game, but a variety of high-value prop bets as well. Check our home page daily for the next week!

 

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