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Tips for Betting Super Bowl Props
by Robert Ferringo - 2/2/2010

Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney

The Super Bowl is a super spectacle. And for gamblers, nothing represents the unique nature of The Big Game like the dizzying array of proposition wagers, or “prop bets” available to gamblers on Super Sunday.

Indianapolis will take on New Orleans at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 7 at Miami in Super Bowl XLIV (44). While there is the obvious wager available on the side and total – the Colts are 5.5-point favorites and the total is 56.5 – there are also hundreds of available prop bets on the board ready to engulf the hard-earned money of any Tom, Dick and Squarey looking to put some cheddar on The Big Game. Bodog alone has 330 Super Bowl props currently on the board ready for action. And other books will have even more available as the game gets closer.

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Here are five tips for betting Super Bowl props on Super Bowl 44:

1. Don’t ignore Super Bowl history.
Before you play any prop you have to at least give a nod to Super Bowl history and see if what you’re betting on has a realistic chance of happening. For example, there are props with excellent odds suggesting that either Brees or Manning throw for more than 400 yards. Well, in 43 Super Bowls – with 86 starting quarterback performances – only one time has a QB managed to top 400 yards (Kurt Warner in 1999). In fact, there have been just 16 300-yard games in The Big Game, with Warner owning three of those as well. So while it seems like a “lock” that Brees and/or Manning will top 300 yards I would say that you have to keep an eye on the past to understand what will happen in the future.

If you’re going to bet on any team props I’m sure you’re going to consider regular season averages for each team. I would suggest also checking out boxscores from the last 10 or 15 years as well and seeing what the average yards gained was or how many first downs each team averaged.

2. Have a vision of the game and bet that with your Super Bowl props.
You can’t just randomly throw down money on generic prop bets and assume that you’re going to see success. Instead, I think it’s better to try to have a vision of how the Super Bowl is going to shake out and bet that. If you think that the Colts are going to run away with it and win with a blowout I would bet them to have the lead at halftime, to have a lead of 10.5 or more at some point, and to outscore the Saints in the first half. If you think that this game is going to go ‘under’ the total then you might want to put money down on the teams going ‘under’ their total yards or bet the ‘over’ on the number of field goals, turnovers or sacks.

The first thing I believe that you have to do before you can start making prop bets is to have fully handicapped the game. You need to decide which team you like to win, and to cover, and you have to have an idea if you like the game to go ‘over’ or ‘under’. You don’t even need to wager on a side or total to play a prop. But I think that it helps to have a vision of how the game will shake out before you start throwing down money on Super Bowl prop bets.

3. Cluster your Super Bowl prop bets.
This is building on the idea of your “vision” for the game. I think that it’s always a good idea to commit to your plays and if you’re going to hone in on a player or a theme then you might as well bet on it to the max.

If you believe that Reggie Bush is overrated and that he isn’t going to be a big part of the Saints offense then bet him to have ‘under’ 30.5 rushing yards and ‘under’ 34.5 receiving yards, as well as betting against him scoring a touchdown. Or if you think that the first score of the game will be a field goal (+165) then you could also consider betting that it will be an Indianapolis field goal (+350) or a Saints field goal (+350). If you think the first score is going to be a touchdown then I would wager on whether you think it’s going to be a passing or a rushing touchdown.

4. Don’t go crazy betting Super Bowl props.
The sheer number of available wagers can be overwhelming to the common bettor. And if you take my advice about cluster betting it can be easy to find yourself locking in on three or four situations and all of a sudden you end up placing 12 or 15 prop bets. The Super Bowl is an orgy of excess and gambling and it’s easy to get caught up in. But you don’t want to find yourself in a situation where you have more money spread over random props than you would throw down on a big play during the season. Pick your spots and attack. Remember, the game is going to be enjoyable no matter what. But it’s going to get a lot less fun in a hurry as you watch your money burn away because of ridiculous prop wagers.

5. This isn’t a great year for Super Bowl props.
One of the big problems with this year’s Super Bowl, from a prop perspective, is that there is no contrast in the teams. Both clubs are dominated by high-scoring offense so the books are naturally going to jack up the juice and the numbers on all of the offensive prop wagers. Now, they do that anyway because of all of the square action on The Big Game and the natural tendency of bettors to wager ‘over’. But this year it’s out of control.

Further, another similarity that both teams have is the fact that neither has many marquee offensive players outside of their quarterbacks. I know that people know who Reggie Bush, Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston are. But the nature of each offense suggests that each team has multiple guys capable of stepping up and being the leading target on any given day. Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have each had bigger numbers over the last month than Wayne. Colston has just eight total catches in two postseason games.

Besides parity among the wide receivers, both Super Bowl participants use running back platoons and vary, almost from week-to-week, their goal line backs. All of this means that there is really less value this year trying to target players for prop bets. And unless you want to pile on the defense and the ‘under’ (and, honestly, do you want to wake up that morning knowing that you are betting AGAINST Brees and Manning) it’s really tough to find great value on the offensive team props.

After you finish this NFL article check out our NFL Team Win Predictions page. If you plan on betting NFL you'll also want to read our NFL strength of schedule page. Our NFL draft prospects page is also must read when studding the NFL. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NFL handicapping.

I know that everyone wants to “go big” on the Super Bowl. But this year’s matchup may be appealing for the fans but it shouldn’t be considered a high-value situation for the average Super Bowl prop bettors.