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Early Super Bowl Line: Bookies Expecting Heavy AFC Action
by Mike Hayes - 12/30/2005

The early Super Bowl line for the 2006 edition of the big game has the AFC as a sold favorite over the NFC regardless of who plays in the game and, as would be expected, the Colts are heavy favorites in futures betting not only to emerge from the AFC but to win the game on Feb. 6, in Detroit.

BetCRIS has the AFC as an 8.5-point favorite with an over-under total of 49.5. On the moneyline you have to lay $340 for $100 on the AFC and $100 for $260 on the underdog NFC.

At Sporting Bet USA the line is 9 but you only have to lay $320 on the moneyline for the AFC. The over-under total on the game is at 50.

There is some potential for value in these numbers as they are based on the assumption the Colts are one of the teams in the game. If the Colts do in fact take the AFC, they will likely be favored by at least 9 points come Super Sunday regardless of the opponent and if anybody other than Indy represents the AFC the line is likely to be significantly less than the 9.

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Quite a bit of variation can be found on the prices among the Super Bowl contenders so it makes sense to shop around.

The best odds found on the Colts to win the Super Bowl outright can be found at Sporting Bet where they are being offered at even money. Somewhat surprisingly the Patriots are second choice here at 7-1 followed by Seattle at 7.5-1. BetCRIS lists the Colts at -$115. Here the Seahawks are second choice at even money and the Patriots third at 6-1.

Nine Sportsbook has Indy at -$150 to win it all, followed by Seattle at 5-1, New England at 7-1 and Denver at 7.5-1.

Bodog has Indy as a prohibitive 10/11 favorite to win the game, followed by Seattle and New England at 6-1 and the surging Bears at 8.5-1.

Early on this season it looked as if it would only take 6 or 7 wins for a team to capture the NFC North Division title, but after a 1-3 start the Bears have won 10-of-11 and, due in part to the move to Rex Grossman at QB, who helped lead Chicago to two offensive touchdowns on Sunday for the first time since Nov. 6, the Bears are gaining a lot of respect among the oddsmakers.

Sporting Bet has the Bears at 13-5 to win the NFC behind even-money Seattle and Nine at 3-1, also behind the even-money Seahawks. Nine lists the Bears at 9.5-1 to win the whole thing, a buck better than the 8.5-1 being offered by Bodog. BetCRIS offers the best value on Chicago among sites surveyed at 10-1.

Sporting Bet is also taking action on the Super Bowl match-up with the Colts and Seahawks as the 5-2 favorite and Colts against the Bears as second choice at 5-1. The 64 combinations being offered include two as of yet undetermined teams who will end up on the outside looking in once the playoffs start.

Should the Chiefs and Cowboys defy logic, as well as the odds, and find themselves in Detroit on Super Sunday, they payday is a hefty 7400-1.

The highest odds on combinations involving likely qualifiers are the Jaguars against the Bucs or the Giants against the Jaguars, both of which are being offered at 340-1. The Jags and Panthers or Jags and Redskins is set at 495-1.

If you are into nostalgia you can get the Steelers and Cowboys, who participated in Super Bowls X, XIII and XXX at 500-1. A 20th anniversary match-up between the Bears and Pats, who squared off in XX will get you 18-1 or a rematch of XXII involving the Skins and Broncs is paying 95-1.

BetCRIS is offering the most interesting Super Bowl related prop on when Detroit GM Matt Millen will be fired.

You have to wager $400 for $100 if you think he will get canned before the Super Bowl, but can get $385 for $100 if you think he will somehow salvage his job and return for another season.

Its even-money that Millen gets fired between the Super Bowl and April 30 and plus $325 that he's out between April 30 and the beginning of the regular season.

Also of interest at Sporting Bet USA is a proposition wager on where Terrell Owens will play his first game next season.

Jerry Jones and his Cowboys are the 2-1 choice to land the disgruntled star. The Broncos are second choices at 6-1 and the field of 12 teams not listed individually is at 8-1. Highest choices on the board are the Steelers, Rams, Giants and 49ers at 50-1.

If you enjoyed this article on the early Super Bowl line, be sure to check out our Super Bowl page (link listed below).

Send questions or comments to mike@docsports.com

Doc's Sports Handy Links:
Super Bowl 2006
Super Bowl History
Super Bowl Odds