A big reason why the NBA decided to ban high schools players from jumping directly to The League is that they just wanted to make things easier on everyone. They wanted the kids to go to school so that they could be better evaluated and at least feign interest in their education. They wanted the teams to have more time to scout players so they could make informed decisions on draft night. And they wanted to protect young, immature kids from the trappings of a professional athlete, while also protecting the teams that were investing millions of dollars on kids that were just a few weeks removed from their prom.
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And over the last few years I would have to say that the NBA’s decision has been a resounding success. College basketball has benefited from having the best amateur players – even for just a year – and there are hundreds of players who likely would have declared for the draft and ended up in an Icelandic pro league that were able to go to college, play and mature a bit. Further, NBA teams were also saved the hassle and anxiety of trying to make multimillion-dollar guesses on kids that they hadn’t seen perform at anything even close to a competitive playing field. Everybody won.
Well, apparently none of those benefits were good enough for the NCAA. And this year is the first season in which the NCAA’s new early entry rule will have an impact on the June 14 NBA Draft.
See, as it stood the NBA had a deadline for early entry draft candidates to withdraw and go back to school. That deadline was typically in mid-June, 10 days prior to the draft itself. But now, because of an NCAA ruling, underclassmen that had declared themselves eligible for the draft had to decide if they wanted to stay in the field or return to college back on May 8. That means that kids had to decide whether they wanted to stay or go even before they had a chance to be evaluated at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, which is being held this weekend, over a week after the NCAA’s deadline.
Not surprisingly, a majority of the college players decided to take their chances and stay in the draft pool. The result is that we now have 61 underclassmen in the pool, along with all of the seniors and international players. And that group of now over 100 players is fighting for just 60 spots in the first and second round of the draft.
And remember: kids taken in Round 2 are not given guaranteed contracts. So essentially just one in three or one in four kids have a shot at actually locking up a job on the hardwood this June. Those are still better odds than most job-hunters face at the moment in this glorious nation but it’s still not a very comfortable place for the players or their future employers to be in.
The NCAA has made everyone’s life tougher. It’s now harder on the kids because now even more of them will end up as busts. It’s harder on the teams because now so many organizations will give in to reaching for a young, unproven talent because they don’t want to miss out on the next star. And it has made my job more difficult because trying to craft a mock draft with all of these underclassmen is just ridiculous.
But I’ll give it a shot. Below is Doc’s Sports 2010 NBA Mock Draft. There will be two more versions after this one and I tried to focus more on the players themselves and the general consensus about them at this stage of the evaluation process than my own thoughts about what teams should do or even that much about what teams specifically need. We’ll get into all of that later.
You’ll notice that I have a lot of players projected relatively high, but then I go on to say how much I dislike them. Well, that’s what we’re back to now that the NCAA is forcing players’ hands. There are just too many guys now that are going to be “drafted on potential” and the bust rate is going to go back through the roof.
A perfect example is a guy like Marshall center Hassan Whiteside. The guy is an athletic seven-footer who led the world in blocked shots this past season. He is leaving school after his freshman year even though he was just a good player in a mid-level conference (Conference USA). This guy never competed against any top-tier talent and his team’s season ended when it lost to Appalachian State.
Yet, he’ll likely go in the Top 20 just because NBA executives can’t pass up on a seven footer with some potential.
You’ll see that a lot this year as there are dozens of players that should be back on campus next fall that will instead be on the streets. All thanks to the NCAA, which has nothing but love for its student-athletes, eh?
So without further ado, here is Doc’s Sports NBA Mock Draft:
1. Washington – John Wall, PG
Yeah, OK. Everyone is John Wall crazy. They have been since November. However, I’m not as ga-ga over Wall. I mean, I’m not an idiot. He is as fast as any point guard that I can remember. He has good vision for being such a young kid and the athleticism is clearly there. You can see the potential and as he matures he could be an excellent NBA player. But he’s not The Second Coming. He’s not a franchise-altering pick. And he’s not going to be one of the Top 10 point guards in the league any time soon. The reality is the Wall played for one of the most overrated college teams in my lifetime and had the benefit of playing on a team that was simply bigger and more athletic than most of its feeble opponents. He can’t shoot (yet) and I never saw a ton of on-the-ball defense from him. Again, he’s going to be a very good player. But let’s not act like he is anything that we haven’t seen dozens of times over.
2. Philadelphia – Evan Turner, G
The 76ers were another winner in the lottery and now have an opportunity to get the most polished player in the draft. This team needs quality ball handlers. They are pretty set at the swing positions and have some decent big men (when they are healthy). Philly has said that it would trade this pick – and they do need depth – but I think they should play it straight and grab Turner.
3. New Jersey – Derrick Favors, PF
I am not as sold on Favors in this spot. But the Nets don’t have a ton of options unless they want to buck the odds and reach for someone. Favors has the potential to justify being taken here so the Nets will bite. But he’s not going to help them any time soon and it’s not as if we haven’t seen lottery big men from the ACC flame out recently. (Marvin Williams, Sean May, Shelden Williams and Brandan Wright all come to mind.) I never once saw Favors dominate a game in college so I’m curious if he has it in him.
4. Minnesota – DeMarcus Cousins, C
Here is all you need to know about Cousins: this guy is bat-shit crazy. Seriously. There is no doubt that he is big and somewhat talented (although he showed about zero polish in his one season). But this is almost a wasted pick because he’s going to be in trouble for half of his career. I guarantee it. Whether it’s guns, drugs, seven or eight kids, whatever. Cousins is a huge risk and a dicey dude in my opinion. So caveat emptor.
5. Sacramento – Wesley Johnson, SF
As a Syracuse fan you know I’m a big fan of Wes Johnson. But I also have some doubts about his NBA prospects. The thing that jumped out most last year and that was that he played soft. Downy soft. And that won’t fly in Da League. He has an excellent all-around game and when he asserts himself he can utilize excellent athleticism. But he settles for too many jumpers and never showed me a great ability to get to the basket. Certainly not like a James Harden, for example. Also, Syracuse players don’t exactly have a great track record of performing in the pros. At this point they are just a step below Notre Dame quarterbacks as far as college-to-pro busts. Also, Johnson is 23 years old so his upside is a bit limited.
6. Golden State – Cole Aldrich, C
I know that Aldrich doesn’t seem to fit in with how the Warriors play. I get that. But there is also no avoiding the fact that the Warriors need a big man. This is a swing pick and a slot that I can definitely see a trade. Al-Farouq Aminu or Greg Monroe would work here. For now I’ll go with Aldrich but I’m sure it will change in each of my mock drafts.
7. Detroit – Greg Monroe, C
Yeah, he’s a bit soft. But there isn’t a more skilled big man in the draft. And at 6-11 and 240 pounds it’s not like he’s a small dude. I think that Monroe will be a very good pro because of his skill set. And I think that he should go before any of the big men I have ahead of him (he’d be a great fit in Golden State). But I can see him sliding because people seem unsure of his overall work ethic and heart.
8. L.A. Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu, SF
Well, he’s big, athletic, has no conscious with the ball, and thinks that he can shoot the three. I think he’ll fit right in with the Clippers. Aminu is another guy with a world of potential. But right now he’s way too erratic from the perimeter. He won’t make an immediate impact but could be a nice project.
9. Utah – Patrick Patterson, PF
Patterson really seemed to mature with that extra year in school and I think it has definitely boosted his stock. He showed expanded range from the outside last season and could potentially grow into the style of an Okur or Boozer. He also excels getting up-and-down the floor and would be excellent to pair with Deron Williams. In all this would be a great fit.
10. Indiana – Ed Davis, PF
Again, we’ve seen a bunch of North Carolina forwards leave too early and flame out. I think Davis fits that mold and I know I wouldn’t touch him. But the NBA is about potential and upside over production. (Which may be why it is so unpredictable and why the bust rate is through the roof.) Davis averaged all of 13 points on an NIT team last year while losing a good portion of the year to injury. I’m not impressed.
11. New Orleans – Epke Udoh, PF
I think the best option for the Hornets would be to work a trade with Golden State to move up and get Aldrich or Monroe. Beyond that I am kind of unsure what they will do. They need size so I will go with Udoh, who dominated the Big 12 this year. However, I am getting kind of a Hasheem Thabeet vibe from Udoh.
12. Memphis – Donatas Motiejunas, C
The Grizz are set with a nice young core and don’t really need a guy to step right in and contribute. So they can take a flier on a draft-and-stash guy from Lithuania.
13. Toronto – Hassan Whiteside, C
You want to talk about a HUGE reach, Whiteside shouldn’t even be in the draft. But hey, when you’re this big someone is going to reach for you. Whiteside can block shots. But I’m pretty sure that anyone that’s 7-0 would have a day in Conference USA. He’s got “BUST” written all over him.
14. Houston – Daniel Orton, C
Again, this guy is an absolute waste of a pick. Just terrible. But everything I see and read suggests that he’s going in the top half of the first round. Why and how, I have no idea. Houston could likely use this pick in a trade to land a big name this summer. But whoever takes Orton is simply flushing a pick down the toilet. I don’t care what NBA scouts say otherwise.
15. Milwaukee – Xavier Henry, SG
I could just copy and paste what I wrote about the previous two picks into this slot. Henry faded hard as the season wore on. And while I don’t doubt the physical tools and the fact that he could grow into a good player I would also say I wouldn’t be the team to draft him and try to cultivate it, only to watch him leave in free agency in four years once he finally becomes something.
16. Minnesota – Damion James, SF
I think that the Timberwolves will go with a big man with their first pick because they know that they will have some options at a swing position with this selection. James has the athleticism and some polished skills already. He can step right in and play. But he never put it all together at Texas. I think his ceiling is as a very good role player.
17. Chicago – James Anderson, SG
Now, if you want to talk about a guy that I would take with a Top 10 pick, here you go. Anderson can do it all. He’s athletic. He’s a proven scorer who can carry a team. He’s performed against the best competition in the country and shown a lot of ability. If I were a fan of a team that drafted Anderson I’d definitely be satisfied with it.
18. Miami – Eric Bledsoe, PG
If I were the Heat I’d be scouring for a point guard. Bledsoe is a guy that I wasn’t high on at all early in the season. But I was also completely wrong about Russell Westbrook and I see a similar skill set.
19. Boston – Paul George, PF
The Celtics are another team that could go a ton of different directions. They could go after Solomon Alabi and start trying to build behind an aging Kevin Garnett. Or they could make a play for Anderson or Henry and try to build behind an aging Ray Allen. Instead I think they will try to find someone for Paul Pierce to groom at small forward.
20. San Antonio – Avery Bradley, PG
This pick could generate some nice buzz since Bradley played his college ball nearby. And if you’ve been watching Tony Parker over the last couple seasons you’d see that he is wearing down quickly.
21. Oklahoma City – Solomon Alabi, C
The Thunder definitely needs size and Alabi is one of the biggest players left on the board. I have significant questions about whether he has an NBA skill level. But there’s no denying the athleticism.
22. Portland - Gordon Hayward, SF
I think that it’s laughable that Hayward is even in the draft, much less projected to go in the first round. But Portland needs someone that can handle the ball on the perimeter and someone that can consistently knock down outside shots. If Hayward is going to do anything in the NBA that’s it.
23. Minnesota – Stanley Robinson, SF
The T-Wolves would likely have already gotten the player they want at No. 4, so they can take a shot with this pick. Robinson’s jumper is obviously streaky. But I also think he’s the most athletic wing player in the draft.
24. Atlanta – Elliot Williams, G
I think this would be very nice value here for the Hawks. Atlanta has a solid starting five and seven-deep roster. And they definitely could use more help on the interior. But without a worthy big man I say take Williams, who they can groom to replace Mike Bibby or Joe Johnson.
25. Memphis – Luke Babbitt, SG
Babbitt is a guy that is apparently shooting up draft boards. I know he’s a great scorer with some nice athleticism. But you have to have watched WAC basketball to understand how little defense those teams play and just how much Babbitt was in another class from those players. Babbitt isn’t nearly as good as Adam Morrison was so I have no idea why people could expect more out of him.
26. Oklahoma City – Quincy Pondexter, SF
This is a guy with NBA athleticism and is a player that showed breakout scoring ability as a senior. All of that makes him OKC’s type of player. This team has also had luck with recent picks out of the Pac-10 (Westbrook, Harden). And if they get their big man project with their first pick they can take a shot here.
27. New Jersey - Craig Brackins, PF
The Nets are set at PG and at C. And after grabbing a power forward with their first selection I think it would do them some good to grab another guy that’s shown some inside-out flashes. Brackins needs to be in better shape. But he is coming off a terrible season. But there is definitely some potential here. And for a team that isn’t even close to competing they could do worse.
28. Memphis – Larry Sanders, PF
I think that this is a reach for a one-dimensional player, even this late in the first round. Sanders has crazy-long arms but not much of an offensive game. He’s a project though. And on a team that’s drafting for depth he could be worth taking a flier on.
29. Orlando – Lance Stephenson, G
This kid definitely needed an extra year in school. But if he can ever develop a jump shot he could be an excellent player. Vince Carter likely only has one year left in him before stepping aside. That could give Stan Van Gundy time to mold Stephenson into something useful.
30. Washington – Devin Ebanks, SF
The Wizards would be wise to grab another guy with superior athleticism and without clearly defined ball skills. Ebanks is tough and is a ruthless defender. Some work on his shot and he could be an quality starter down the road.
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Note: There are a bunch of players that I can see going in the second round that I think have the potential to far outshine a lot of the overrated players and reaches that will go in Round 1. I think guys like Dominique Jones, Trevor Booker, Jordan Crawford, Greivis Vasquez and Terrico White have a chance to be much better than players like Hayward, Whiteside, Orton, Sanders and Bradley. But we will see.